KY-4: AIPAC’s Early Attack Strategy: The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) announced that they are launching an ad blitz against Kentucky US Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Garrison) even though he has little competition in the May 21st Republican primary and has no Democratic opposition for November. The ads will attack him for his record pertaining to Israel support.
AIPAC’s goal is to weaken him within the Republican primary voter base in order to either dissuade him from running for the Senate when Mitch McConnell’s seat comes open in 2026 or make him less of a factor if he does launch a statewide candidacy. MD-6: Dueling Polls: A new publicly released survey posts former Commerce Department official April McClain Delaney (D) leading the large field of 13 Democratic candidates vying to succeed Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac) who is running for the Senate. The primary election is this Tuesday. The Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group conducted the survey for the Delaney campaign. The poll (5/6-7; 400 MD-6 likely Democratic primary voters; live interview) finds Ms. Delaney topping state Delegate Joe Vogel (D-Montgomery County) by a 37-24% margin. The pollsters indicate that the remaining 11 candidates combined only posted a cumulative 17% support factor. There is a wide discrepancy in the polls, however. Recently, Mr. Vogel released a Public Policy Polling survey (4/25-26; 588 MD-6 likely voters; live interview & text) that showed both he and McClain Delaney at 24 percent. While the data results are very different, it is clear that the primary contest has winnowed to a two-way race. NJ-10: Special Scheduled; Candidates Come Forth: Gov. Phil Murphy (D) has called a special election to replace the late Rep. Donald Payne, Jr. (D-Newark) who passed away on April 24th. The special primary will be held on July 16th, with the special general on September 18th. The winner will take the seat in late September and then be on the ballot for the regular term on November 5th. Because Rep. Payne passed away after the candidate filing deadline, the local Democratic Party organizations will choose a replacement nominee after the July 16th special primary for the regular term. It is presumed the delegates will choose the special primary winner, and Newark City Council President LaMonica McIver (D) appears to be the candidate consolidating the earliest support. Also expressing interest in running for the party nomination are Hudson County Commissioner Jerry Walker, Linden Mayor Derek Armstead, East Orange City Councilwoman Brittany Claybrooks, and NJ state official David Godfrey. Republican Carmen Bucco and Green Party candidate Jon Serrano, along with Congressman Payne, were the only candidates to file at the March 25th filing deadline. The Democrats will easily retain the Newark anchored 10th District. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+58, and President Biden scored an 81-19% victory here in 2020. Comments are closed.
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