House-10/28/22

​CT-5:  Republican Takes Lead:  Republicans have been excited about their congressional candidate, former state Senator George Logan, who like incumbent Rep. Jahana Hayes (D-Wolcott) is African American, and now we see why.  A new Emerson College survey (10/19-21; 500 CT-5 likely general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) projects Mr. Logan to a 48-47% lead over Rep. Hayes, the first time any survey has shown him holding an edge over the incumbent. 
 
According to the Target Smart organization, both parties are improving their early voting performance by approximately three percentage points when compared with the 2020 pattern.  This northwestern Connecticut race becomes another of the many to watch on election night.
 
NC-13:  As Close as Predicted:  The court-drawn North Carolina congressional map created a new open district from the south Raleigh suburbs through the city of Fayetteville.  To make it extremely competitive, they also included Johnston County, which is solidly Republican.  A new survey suggests the district is playing out just as competitively as drawn.
 
Survey USA released a poll of the new district (10/21-24; 584 NC-13 likely general election voters; live interview & text), and it predictably found the candidates locked in a dead heat.  The ballot test posts state Sen. Wiley Nickel (D-Raleigh) to a bare one-point lead, 44-43%, over Republican Bo Hines.  The early vote count from the Target Smart data organization also shows a close result with both parties down a bit from their respective 2020 early vote performance.
 
PA-12:  Name Confusion:  St. Rep. Summer Lee (D-Braddock) has a unique problem.  Though running in a strongly Democratic open congressional seat that includes downtown Pittsburgh, her Republican opponent’s name is the same as the long-time retiring Democratic Congressman, Mike Doyle. 
 
Ms. Lee is running ads clearly explaining that her opponent is not the retiring Congressman.  Her approach is likely to work since the new 12th District is strongly Democratic.  The fact that she has to advertise to warn about mistaken identity, however, tells us that Ms. Lee’s internal data is showing that the name confusion is causing her political problems.
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