The Garin Hart Yang Research Group (5/23-25; 601 GA likely general election voters) conducted a poll for their client, former state House Minority Leader and new Democratic gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams, and found her topping both Republican run-off participants. But, the survey methodology is open to question. According to the results, Ms. Abrams leads Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle (R), 48-43%, and Secretary of State Brian Kemp (R), 49-40%. This admittedly assumes, however, a turnout model where Trump voters outpace Hillary Clinton voters by just two percentage points. In the actual election, the President’s Georgia victory margin was six points.
Pollster Fred Yang accounts for the discrepancy by adhering to the “Democratic surge” in turnout that is expected in November. But, in the recent May 22nd Georgia primary, 52,352 more Republicans than Democrats cast ballots, thus failing to prove any hard evidence that Georgia Democratic turnout will surpass the GOP voter base.
The Rundown Blog
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