GA-6: More Polling Flaws
A new pollster joined the group surveying the GA-6 special election. Atlanta-based Opinion Savvy (3/23-24; 462 specially chosen GA-6 registered voters) recently tested the coming special election. The pollsters selected the sampling group from the Georgia registered voters list, but screened them before completing the process to find the most likely special election voters. The polling analysis did not detail how the screening was implemented.
The results found Democratic investigative filmmaker and ex-congressional aide Jon Ossoff leading the pack of candidates, posting 40% support. Former Secretary of State Karen Handel (R) was second with 20%, while businessman and local councilman Bob Gray (R) recorded 10% preference. Former state Sen. Dan Moody (R) was fourth with 9 percent.
The poll then ran ballot test questions for the eventual run-off election, pairing Ossoff with several Republicans in one-on-one hypothetical contests. It is here where the pollsters “weighted” the results to reflect demographics, voting history, and turnout propensity, thus drawing questions about the conclusions. In each situation, Ossoff and his individual Republican opponent came within one point of each other.
The GA-6 campaign is clearly the most competitive of the five concurrent special elections. Democrats look to pull an upset here, in what has typically been a reliably Republican district. While is it becoming very likely that Mr. Ossoff will make the run-off, he is far from assured of winning the seat. The jungle primary election is scheduled for April 18th, with the run-off slated for June 20th.
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