California: New Polling

Statisticians from the University of California at Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies just went into the field to test the Golden State’s electorate for the upcoming open Governor’s race (YouGov; 8/27-9/5; 1,000 CA likely voters online; questions provided both in English and Spanish). Polls here have been few and far between, and one reason for not attracting more interest is that the numbers remain consistent.  Again, the data shows Lt. Governor Gavin Newsom (D) leading the pack of candidates and in the best position to capture one of the two general election slots from the June qualifying election. 
 
Mr. Newsom has 26% support, followed by frequent Republican candidate John Cox at 11%.  Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa is next attracting 10%, which represents a significant seven percentage point drop from the group’s June survey, which means he is now just ahead of GOP Assemblyman Travis Allen’s 9 percent.  State Treasurer John Chiang (D) follows with 7%, ahead of former State Superintendent of Public Instruction Delaine Eastin (D) who posted 5% support.
 
Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti (D) remains a potential gubernatorial candidate, but the chances of him actually entering the race are diminishing because the others are now far ahead of him on the campaign finance front.

--Jim Ellis