CA-49: First Poll

​Democratic candidate Mike Levin released the results from his first campaign poll conducted in conjunction with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.  In the San Diego/Orange County congressional seat that Republican Darrell Issa (R-Vista) is vacating, the new Feldman Group poll (6/24-27; 400 CA-49 registered voters with an over-sample of 200 independents who are registered as “No Party Preference”) finds the poll sponsor leading Republican Board of Equalization member Diane Harkey (R) 44-41% in the first ballot test, and 49-46% when those leaning to both candidates are added to the sample. 
 
Democrats are five points behind Republicans in partisan registration here (31-36%), and a full nine points down when looking at the conservative coalition (Republicans, American Independent, and Libertarian parties) opposite the liberal alliance (Democrats, Green, and Peace & Freedom parties).  Therefore, those registered as No Party Preference (previously referred to as “Declined to State”), in addition to a handful who registered in an “other” or “unknown” category meaning a combined 27.3% of the voters in this CD, matter greatly in the general election and most particularly to a 49th District Democratic candidate.  This explains the pollsters “over sampling” the NPP voters.