Third-time congressional candidate Justin Fareed (R) just released a new internal Olive Tree Strategies poll (7/12-15; 404 CA-24 likely general election voters) that claims he trails freshman Rep. Salud Carbajal (D-Santa Barbara) by only one percentage point, 47-46%. In 2016, culminating a tough open seat campaign, then-County Supervisor Carbajal defeated businessman Fareed, 53-47%.
Clearly push questions were used in the poll, but they were not released. The poll summary refers to “15 messages critical of Salud” being presented to the respondents. Therefore, it is difficult to tell exactly when the above ballot test was posed. The 24th District, covering all of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties, with a sliver of Ventura added, can yield close campaigns but probably not a Republican victory. The constituency voted 57-37% in Hillary Clinton’s favor, for example.
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