Arizona: Sinema, McSally Up

​Arizona-based OH Predictive Insights for the local Phoenix ABC15 television news released a new survey (7/23-25; 600 AZ likely general election voters; an additional 576 likely Republican primary voters) of the open Arizona Senate contest just as the candidates enter the last month of primary campaigning.  According to OHPI, Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Phoenix) would lead Rep. Martha McSally (R-Tucson), 48-44%, if the general election were in the current period and the Tucson Congresswoman wins the Republican nomination on August 28th.  In their last public offering of this race, published in April, the research organization projected Rep. Sinema to have a 48-42% margin over Rep. McSally.
 
In the Republican primary, Ms. McSally tops former state Senator Kelli Ward and ex-Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, 35-27-15%.  The Arizona race is one of the keys to which party will control the Senate in the next Congress.  Sen. Jeff Flake (R) is retiring after one term.