Exit Polling: CNN Releases Results: Though exit polling has not proven particularly accurate in past elections, looking at the results of the organization’s data still has value. A quick glance at the CNN data brings forth a couple of key observations. First, the Independent vote, which polling suggested through most of the election cycle was moving toward the Republicans, came back to the Democrats at election time. Self-described moderates were breaking Democratic, 56-41%. Those describing themselves as Independents voted Democratic in a 49-47% split. Within the cell segment, Independent women moved toward the Democrats in a 54-42% clip.
On the other end of the spectrum, Republicans actually were making their marks with minority voters, at least according to this data. Republicans were able to attract 39% of the Hispanic vote, 40% among Asians, and 13% with black voters. All of these numbers are an improvement from immediate past elections. Additionally, while all men break toward the Republicans 56-42%, all women prefer the Democrats, 53-45%. Still, CNN measures that the national vote went Republican in a 51.3 – 46.7% swing even though Democrats held the Senate majority and it appears House control will come down to a minimum number of seats. Senate States: Key Turnout Stats: Now that we are seeing closer to final turnout numbers in many places, we have derived some interesting participation statistics from the most competitive US Senate states.
In Georgia, the turnout may fall just short of the 4.0 million voters who cast ballots in 2018. The Nevada turnout, projected to just exceed the 1 million mark, will be an approximate 4% increase over 2018. In Wisconsin, once the final turnout report is released will likely show the same relative participation rate as recorded in 2018. The Pennsylvania turnout looks to be up 5% from 2018. Florida, where Sen. Marco Rubio won an impressive 58-41% victory over US Rep. Val Demings (D-Orlando), who was clearly one of the strongest Democratic candidates in the nation, looks to be 6% under 2018’s total. In Iowa and Ohio, where Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) won an eighth term and Republican J.D. Vance held the open seat over US Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Warren/Youngstown), turnout appears to be down just under 9% when compared to the 2018 participation rate in both states. Louisiana: Sen. Kennedy Releases Poll: Armed with a fresh six years in the Senate with his 62% re-election vote against nine opponents, Sen. John Kennedy (R) is now admitting he is considering a run for Governor next year when incumbent John Bel Edwards (D) will be ineligible to seek a third term. He then released a Torchlight Strategies poll (11/9-12; 800 LA likely 2023 jungle primary voters; live interview & text) that posted him to a 22-18-13-7-6% lead over state Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson (D), Attorney General and former Congressman Jeff Landry (R), Lt. Gov. Billy Nungesser (R), and fellow US Sen. Bill Cassidy (R), respectively.
Majority: Democrats Clinch Senate: Though Nevada Republican Adam Laxalt clung to a small lead for most of the counting period, the post-election trends that culminated this weekend certainly favored Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV), thus yielding what is now her projected victory. With a projected turnout to exceed 1 million Nevada voters, Sen. Cortez Masto has at this point recorded a 48.8 to 48.1% victory, a current margin of just 6,582 votes.
With such an outcome, the Democrats reached the 50-mark regardless of what happens in the other outstanding race, Georgia, thus guaranteeing them the majority in the next Congress. The Georgia election will now be decided in a February 6th runoff election since no candidate reached the majority support plateau. Majority: Count Still Undecided: The House races are still very much undecided with 19 races uncalled. Considering that 10 of those races are in California and one in New York where it will likely take weeks to arrive at final totals, it could be quite some time until we know the ultimate outcome.
According to the CNN election site count, of the 19 uncalled races the Democrats lead in nine, Republicans eight, and two are pure toss-ups, both of which the GOP candidate has a slight count edge. Republicans, however, sitting at 212 called races in their favor versus 204 for the Democrats need only six of the 19 to fall their way, while Democrats require 14 to claim a bare majority. It appears the final margin may come down to just one or two seats. The GOP lead seems relatively secure in five of their eight advantage seats, which would give them 217, while the Democrats appear to have secure advantages in another seven of their nine, which puts them at 211. Therefore, the Republican projection appears to lie in the 217-221 range, while the Democrats’ best-case scenario looks to be scoring a 218-217 slight majority. These predictions, however, are based upon rudimentary projections that could easily change once the actual votes are finally tabulated in all 19 outstanding campaigns. Update: Two to Go: The 36 Governors’ races are also almost complete, with only Alaska and Arizona uncalled.
Alaska Republican incumbent Mike Dunleavy looks to be in position to potentially clinch re-election outright, thus exceeding the 50% mark within the aggregate vote and avoiding a Ranked Choice Voting instant runoff. With ballots being allowed two weeks to report from the wilderness, it will be just before Thanksgiving when all of the Last Frontier races finally conclude. In returns that defied polling and thus favor the Democrats, Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (D) leads former news anchorwoman Kari Lake (R) in the Governor’s race, and her advantage may be enough to clinch the office once the state works through its counting delays. At this point, Ms. Hobbs holds a 50.5 – 49.5% lead with an estimated 93% of the vote counted. This translates into approximately 180,000 votes remaining to be tallied. To win, Ms. Lake would have to receive more than 56% of the outstanding vote to make up her 26,000+ vote deficit, which is difficult. In the only competitive election resulting in a partisan conversion, Republican Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo (R) unseated Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak (D). In races that were largely decided in the states’ respective Democratic primaries, Wes Moore and Maura Healey successfully converted Republican Governorships in Maryland and Massachusetts, respectively. Oregon, the site of perhaps the most interesting Governor’s race because it featured a three-way battle, saw former state House Speaker Tina Kotek (D) prevail over ex-House Minority Leader Christine Drazan (R) and former state Senator Betsy Johnson (I). Polling correctly suggested that Ms. Johnson had dropped well off the pace but also largely projected that Ms. Drazan was positioned for a close upset win. In the end, the election broke 47-44-9% in Ms. Kotek’s favor with an estimated 93% of the all-mail vote counted. House: Majority Count Remains in Limbo: Several more congressional race projection calls were issued yesterday, and Republicans now have 211 declared seats as compared to the Democrats’ 198 according to the CNN race results count. Of the 26 uncalled, 11 are clearly headed to one party or the other. The 15 uncalled campaigns that are purely undecided will put the final touches on the House majority.
At this point, it appears the Republicans will claim a very small chamber edge, likely ending between 219 and 222. Several races flipping back to the Democrats, particularly those from California with large numbers of outstanding votes, could still result in the Dems hanging onto their majority by a single vote, 218-217. Senate: Coming Down to Nevada & Georgia: With Sen. Mark Kelly (D) holding a lead of greater than 115,000 votes, he will soon be projected the Arizona race winner. This means the Senate majority will be determined in the tight Nevada contest and what appears to be a runoff contest in Georgia that will be scheduled for December 6th.
Currently, former Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R) leads Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) by just a percentage point, or just over 9,000 votes with approximately 88% of the vote recorded. CNN reports that over 91% of the vote is already counted in Clark County, where approximately 73% of the state’s residents live. In the Peach State race between Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and Republican Herschel Walker CNN projects that 99% of the votes tabulated, and Sen. Warnock’s edge over Mr. Walker is 49.6 to 48.3%, a margin of just under 49,000 votes. It is now highly unlikely that enough votes remain to push Sen. Warnock over the 50% mark. Therefore, the secondary election will be required. If the Laxalt lead holds, the Georgia race will determine the next Senate majority. Aggregate Governor: Incumbents Dominate: Surprisingly little change occurred in the 36 Governors’ races in terms of party change. Democrats, as predicted, easily converted the Maryland and Massachusetts open seats.
At this point, Democrats are leading in the three-way Oregon race, while Republican Joe Lombardo has a discernible lead over incumbent Democrat Steve Sisolak in the Nevada race. At least 12% of the ballots remain to be counted in the Silver State, but Mr. Lombardo looks to be in good position to win the election. If he does, this could be the only Republican conversion election in the country. Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs is leading the Governor’s race in her state. Her margin over former news anchorwoman Kari Lake is small, but consistent. Should Ms. Hobbs hold, she too would be in position to convert a Republican Governorship to the Democrats, joining what happened in Maryland and Massachusetts. Voting machine problems have delayed the Arizona election returns, so it may be awhile before we know the final outcome. Otherwise, incumbents had a very good night in the Governors’ races despite the high level of competition seen throughout the country. Senate: Nevada & Georgia to Decide Majority: Sen. Ron Johnson (R) being projected the winner of the Wisconsin Senate race means that deciding the Senate majority will likely come down to either the Democrats coming from behind to prevail in Nevada or having to wait to see who wins the December 6th runoff in the Georgia Senate race.
With Sen. Mark Kelly (D) poised to win his yet-to-be-called race in Arizona, whether or not the trends change in Nevada will be the next happening to observe. Currently, former Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R) leads Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) by just under two percentage points, or 15,812 votes with approximately 84% of the vote recorded. CNN has projected that the Georgia race between Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and Republican Herschel Walker will advance to a secondary runoff election because neither man will reach the 50% plateau. Currently, with 99% of the votes tabulated, Sen. Warnock’s edge over Mr. Walker is 49.2 to 48.7%, a margin of 17,500 votes. |
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