California: Rep. Schiff Exploring Senate Race: With most people believing that Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) will not seek re-election in 2024 when she will be 91 years of age, Southern California Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) said yesterday that he is considering launching a US Senate exploratory committee. Mr. Schiff is already in a battle to keep his seat on the Intelligence Committee after Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) said, should he be elected Speaker, that Mr. Schiff and Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) would be removed from the panel.
Should Sen. Feinstein retire, we will see a strong Democratic battle to replace her. In California’s jungle primary system, it is likely that two Democrats would advance into the general election. One thing is certain: Rep. Schiff would be able to raise the money to compete. In his bid for re-election to the House in the current cycle, he raised over $22 million. CA-22: Rep. David Valadao Wins Re-election: The Associated Press, late yesterday afternoon Pacific time, projected that Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) had defeated state Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D-Bakersfield) in their hard-fought congressional race. This, despite Rep. Valadao finishing a distant second on the jungle primary back in June when he received only 26% versus Mr. Salas’ 45% in a field of four candidates in the most Democratic congressional district in the country that elects a Republican to the House.
According to the California Secretary of State’s official count, Mr. Valadao held a 3,381 vote lead with just over 100,000 votes counted. Based upon the number of outstanding ballots and where they are from, the AP made the unofficial projection. The Valadao victory gives the Republicans 220 members in the new Congress as compared to 212 Democrats. Three races, two in California and one in Alaska, remain uncalled. Republicans lead in both Golden State races, Democrats in the Last Frontier. NC-13: Hines Files 2024 Committee: The court-drawn North Carolina congressional map featured a new 13th District that contained the southern Raleigh suburbs, the city of Fayetteville, and Republican Johnston County, which made the CD a toss-up seat. Democratic state Sen. Wiley Nickel carried the district with a 52-48% margin, defeating Republican Bo Hines, who received the Trump endorsement in the GOP primary. Mr. Hines, 27, was a former football player for North Carolina State University, but had no other particular ties to the region and actually planned to run in another district before this open seat was drawn. Yesterday, he filed a new 2024 committee, presumably sending signals that he intends to run again. Mr. Hines did not receive particularly favorable marks as a candidate, and there is a good chance we will see a new North Carolina map drawn after the Supreme Court rules on the state’s partisan gerrymandering case before them. Even if Mr. Hines decides to run, he can expect heavy competition in the Republican primary before getting another opportunity of opposing Rep-Elect Nickel. WV-2: State Treasurer Announces for House: Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) already announcing that he will challenge Sen. Joe Manchin (D) in the next election year has ignited the first of what promises to be political musical chairs for what will be an open 2nd Congressional District. State Treasurer Riley Moore (R) announced his congressional candidacy yesterday and is the first major candidate to enter the 2024 race. Rep. Mooney’s successor will likely be decided in the Republican primary in a seat that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+34. Alaska: Murkowski Takes Lead: The Alaska ballot count slowly continues, and now with 87% of the projected vote recorded Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) has assumed the aggregate vote lead over Republican challenger Kelly Tshibaka. According to this latest tabulation, Sen. Murkowski now has a 1,658-vote edge over Ms. Tshibaka.
The aggregate count, however, won’t likely end this election. Since the leading candidate will almost assuredly finish under the 50% majority mark – Sen. Murkowski now has 43.3% – we will then see the contest falling into the Ranked Choice Voting system. This, too, should favor Sen. Murkowski. Though Ms. Tshibaka is likely to receive more second choice votes from the first eliminated conservative Republican candidate who has already endorsed her, Sen. Murkowski will receive many more from the second eliminated candidate, sure to be Democrat Pat Chesbro. At the end of this very long counting process expect Sen. Murkowski to be re-elected. CA-13: Closest Race Continues On: In what could end as being the closest race in the country when all the votes are finally counted, Republican agri-businessman John Duarte (R) has re-captured the lead over state Assemblyman Adam Gray (D-Merced) with 73% of the projected vote counted. Currently, Mr. Duarte has an 865-vote lead. Looking at the five counties in the newly created District 13 that stretches from the Stockton area border to the south of Fresno, the race is close in each place.
Though the outstanding vote total in San Joaquin County is the largest and a place that clearly favors Mr. Gray, the total vote is too low to make a substantial difference in the overall count. Therefore, if percentages for the two candidates remain consistent among the outstanding votes, Mr. Duarte could win a very close victory. Therefore, we can expect not only a long waiting period to arrive at a final count, but a recount and vote challenge period will almost certainly follow. This may be the last race in the country to be called. CO-3: Rep. Boebert Projected; Dem Concedes: Though Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) may be the projected winner with just a 554-vote margin from a total vote count of 327,110, and Democrat Adam Frisch has conceded the race, the tabulation process may not be over. Because the race is within the .5 percent range that triggers an automatic recount under Colorado state law, we still may see a post-election proofing procedure after the final canvass even though Rep. Boebert has declared victory and Mr. Frisch conceded. At this point, however, with the Boebert projection, the Republican House total increases to 219. CO-8: Democrat Caraveo Wins New Seat: Colorado’s new 8th District earned in national reapportionment was drawn as a 50/50 seat with the slightest Democratic lean, and that is exactly the way the election finished. Over the weekend, Democratic state Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Eastlake) was projected the winner, claiming a 1,625-vote win from a total of 236,426 currently counted ballots, giving her a 48.4 – 47.7% victory over Weld County Republican state Senator Barbara Kirkmeyer. Because this margin is likely to remain beyond the .5 mandatory recount range, this win will soon be certified. The Caraveo victory brings the Democratic House total to 212 with four seats remaining outstanding. Polling: Already Conflicts: Expect to see a plethora of polling released into the public domain for the 2024 presidential contest, and much of it will conflict with other data. Already, such a pattern has begun. Since the election, we’ve seen three Republican presidential primary polls being released.
YouGov, for the Economist periodical (11/13-15; 432 US adults; online) posts Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to a seven-point, 46-39% advantage over former President Donald Trump. A largely unfamiliar pollster, called Seven Letter Insight (11/10-15; 542 US likely Republican primary voters) sees a similar result, Gov. DeSantis topping the former President, 34-26%. Morning Consult, polling for Politico, sees a much different result. Their survey (11/10-14; 1,983 US registered voters) finds Mr. Trump with a sizable 47-33-5% result over Gov. DeSantis and former Vice President Mike Pence. None of these polls should be taken particularly seriously. All are national polls, two of which have small samples and are not reflective of Republican primary voters casting ballots in state primaries. Majority Status: Republicans Clinch: Late yesterday afternoon Pacific time, California US Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita) was projected the winner of his 27th District congressional race, which was enough to officially clinch the US House majority for the Republicans. The Garcia victory became the 218th GOP seat and with this result four consecutive years of Democratic control comes to an end.
Rep. Garcia had led consistently throughout the 2022 race, and the size of his lead was somewhat surprising. Running for his second full term after winning a special election in early 2020 and being re-elected by a razor-thin margin in the regular election later that same year, Rep. Garcia was viewed as a highly vulnerable incumbent in heavily Democratic California. In this current election, however, Mr. Garcia was projected the winner when holding a 54.2% preference factor with 78% of the vote tabulated. Obviously, his margin of 13,846 votes was enough to sustain even a late influx of Democratic votes. Colorado: Projections Coming Soon: Tomorrow, we will reach the ballot acceptance deadline in Colorado. This means that, with all ballots finally in the system, we will soon see projections being made in the state’s two uncalled races, the 3rd District contest involving Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt), and the new 8th District where state Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Eastlake) holds a slight 1,691-vote advantage over state Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer (R-Weld County). Party Division: Seven Seats Remain Uncalled: With four more seats being called yesterday, the overall House count now stands at 218R – 210D, with seven elections remaining to be called. In addition to Rep. Mike Garcia’s (R-CA) victory that clinched the Republican House majority, Reps. Mike Levin (D-CA), Jared Golden (D-ME), and state Rep. Andrea Salinas (D) in the new OR-6 seat were all projected as winners. In the seven outstanding districts, both parties lead in three races, with the CA-13 contest headed to a potential seesaw ending where both candidates, state Assemblyman Adam Gray (D-Merced) and agribusinessman John Duarte (R), both have legitimate chances to win. The three Republican advantage races are the CA-3 open seat, CA-22 (Rep. David Valadao), and CO-3 (Rep. Lauren Boebert). Democrats lead in AK-AL (Rep. Mary Peltola), CA-47 (Rep. Katie Porter), and the open CO-8 new district. CA-13 is too close to call. Donald Trump: Officially Announces: Last night from his home at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, former President Donald Trump officially announced that he will again run for President in 2024. He becomes the first official candidate in the next presidential race.
With controversy surrounding him and being tagged as the prime Republican loser in the 2022 elections because candidates he endorsed, supported, and in some cases recruited, went onto to lose their general election bids, Mr. Trump begins his new quest in a more weakened political position than he would have otherwise. It is now clear that he will not move unencumbered through the Republican nomination process as several candidates will eventually step up to challenge him in a fight as to who will become the party standard bearer. West Virginia: First Senate Announcement: Yesterday, West Virginia Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) announced that he will challenge Sen. Joe Manchin (D) in the 2024 Senate race. He is the first such individual to announce for the next Senate election cycle in any state. In the 2022 election cycle, Mr. Mooney was paired with Rep. David McKinley (R-Wheeling) because West Virginia lost one of its three congressional seats in national reapportionment. In a tough Republican primary campaign, Rep. Mooney defeated Rep. McKinley, 54-36%, and went onto win the general election with 65% of the vote.
Back in August, Triton Research ran early ballot test questions pairing Sen. Manchin with several potential Republican challengers, including Rep. Mooney. In that pairing, Mr. Mooney led the Senator, 45-38%. Another potential Manchin opponent, Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) who challenged him in 2008, indicates he is considering another Senate bid but said he is also looking at what will be an open Governor’s race, a potential bid for what will now be Rep. Mooney’s open congressional seat, or simply to seek re-election to his current position. Majority Status: Republicans Knocking on the Door: Various news agencies have called five more US House races bringing the Republicans to the brink of clinching a bare majority. With the new calls that included three Democratic and two Republican victories, the GOP now stands with 217 called seats, one short of the official majority according to the CNN Elections site. The Democrats currently hold 207 seats under the new totals.
The uncalled list, that will ultimately determine the size of the new majority, now stands at eleven. Within this segment, Republicans lead in four seats, Democrats in six, and one, California’s open 13th District, is simply too close to call. Six of the eleven lie in California. Republicans continue to be on a pace to claim the majority with between 218 and 221 seats. To reach 218, the Republicans need to win only one of the 11 outstanding races. Democrats, while still mathematically alive, can reach 218 only with a sweep of all 11 uncalled races. NM-2: Rep. Herrell Loses Re-Election: Las Cruces City Councilman Gabe Vasquez (D) was declared the winner of the state’s southern 2nd District congressional race where he unseated freshman Rep. Yvette Herrell (R-Alamogordo). The margin was 50.3 – 49.6%, a margin of just 1,344 votes of more than 192,000 ballots cast. The Herrell defeat is attributed more to redistricting than to Mr. Vasquez’s campaign. The Democratic map drawers targeted Herrell for defeat in order to sweep the New Mexico delegation. Changing the 2nd District from a R+14 into a D+4 by adding some Albuquerque suburban areas in the re-map plan severely endangered the GOP freshman member who won her seat in 2020 after losing her first attempt in 2018. The 18-point swing toward the Democrats obviously made Rep. Herrell vulnerable and, as so often happens, the re-draw successfully defeated a targeted incumbent. Ms. Herrell joins a group of seven other incumbents who lost their elections on Tuesday. They are: Reps. Tom O’Halleran (D-AZ), Al Lawson (D-FL), Cindy Axne (D-IA), Tom Malinowski (D-NJ), Sean Patrick Maloney (D-NY), Steve Chabot (R-OH), and Mayra Flores (R-TX). Reps. Lawson and Flores lost their seats because they were paired with another incumbent. New Polling: Already Testing for 2024: The House of Representatives isn’t even decided yet, and already we see a series of polls testing newly re-elected Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) pitted against former President Donald Trump. The WPA Intelligence polling series finds the Florida Governor opening up big Republican primary leads against Mr. Trump in several important nomination states: Iowa (+11), New Hampshire (+15), Texas (+11), Georgia (+20), and of course, Florida (+20). Count on presidential fever going non-stop for the next two years.
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