House: Majority Count in Limbo: Several congressional race projection calls were issued yesterday, and Republicans now have 209 declared seats as compared to the Democrats’ 191. Of the 35 uncalled, 17 are clearly headed to one party or the other. The 18 uncalled campaigns that are purely undecided will put the final touches on the House majority. At this point, the Republicans reasonably look to have clinched 212 seats and the Democrats’ 204 before the final 19 seats are finally declared.
Colorado: Key to Majority: With the House majority definitely on the line, and the winning party ending close to the 218 minimum control mark, two races in the Centennial State of Colorado could be key to determining the final outcome. In the state’s western slope 3rd District, controversial Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt), who has been trailing her Democratic opponent, former Aspen City Councilman Adam Frisch, since the beginning of the count has now pulled to within just 64 votes with still many votes outstanding. According to the CNN count, 5% of the vote remains. Colorado received a new district in national reapportionment and the new 8th District is acting just as it was intended, as a toss-up seat. The latest count finds Democratic state Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Eastlake) leading state Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer (R-Weld County) by 899 votes. This race, too, has tightened and CNN reports that only 78% of the vote is counted. New York: Red Wave on Long Island: Though we did not see a “red wave” materialize nationally, we surprisingly saw one on Long Island. In fact, the Island’s two Democratic open seats flipped, the third remained in the Republican column, and Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-Sayville) was re-elected to a second term. With Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley) not seeking re-election in order to campaign for Governor, Republican Nick LaLota was declared the winner of his open 1st District, the east Long Island open seat. In the 3rd District, also open because the incumbent, Congressman Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove), unsuccessfully ran for Governor and lost the Democratic primary to incumbent Kathy Hochul, Republican George Santos was declared the winner. Finally, in what proved to be the Island’s biggest upset, former Hempstead Town Councilman Anthony D’Esposito will succeed retiring Rep. Kathleen Rice (D-Garden City), who chose not to seek a fifth term. Mr. D’Esposito was declared the victor over former Hempstead Town Supervisor Laura Guillen (D), who was considered a big favorite in the D+10 rated district. Conflicts: Likely Versus Registered Voters: The final Senate polls featured interesting poll results from one firm that was detecting very different ballot test results from likely voters when compared with the larger registered voter universe. The Targoz Market Research group tested Senate races in Georgia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. In each case, they found the Republican candidate leading among likely voters and the Democratic contender having the advantage with registered voters.
All of the polls were conducted over the November 2-6 period. In Georgia, Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) held a 46-41% lead among registered voters, but Herschel Walker (R) enjoyed a 49-47% edge among the most likely voters. The same type of pattern was evident in Ohio. Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Warren/Youngstown) led 44-43% among registered voters, while Republican author J.D. Vance held a 52-45% advantage among likely voters. In Pennsylvania, the ballot tests favored Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D), 47-41%, while Dr. Mehmet Oz (R) scored a similar 51-46% spread among PA likely voters. These results again show how important turnout is in determining midterm results. The candidates and parties doing the better job increasing turnout will likely win this race. Final Ratings: Diverse Prognosticators See Republican Senate Majority: The latest race ratings from Real Clear Politics, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and even the Washington Post project Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz carrying the Pennsylvania race, which would mean Republicans would need to win just one of the remaining four toss-up races, while Democrats would have to hold all four. Dr. Oz is slightly leading Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) in six of the eight November polls. Thus, the partisan pendulum appears to be turning the Republicans’ way, and each entity is predicting a new Senate Republican majority. House: GOP Headed for Majority; Size Uncertain: The House numbers look to favor a new Republican majority taking hold, but the size of the GOP win is a matter of conjecture. Of what appear to be 89 competitive races, Republicans would claim a bare majority in winning any 35 of the House elections while the Democrats would have to clinch 55. Democrats defending so many more vulnerable seats explain the disparity. The same is true in the Senate races, except there it is the Republicans who have to defend more seats because the 2022 map allows the Democrats to defend only half as many seats as the GOP.
Some of the prognosticators believe the new House majority would exceed 240 seats, while others project an end result in the 230s. Since 247 is the Republican highwater mark reached when holding a House majority in the modern political era, it is unlikely this election will allow them to exceed such a number. Landing somewhere in the 230s appears more reasonable. Governor Elections: Tonight’s Gov Election More Important to Feds: Democrats are slated to convert the open Maryland and Massachusetts seats. Republicans are looking to have strong chances in many of the western states, as well as some, such as Kansas, Wisconsin, and perhaps Michigan in the Midwest.
Should the US Supreme Court issue landmark rulings next June on the Alabama and North Carolina redistricting cases they are currently hearing, the Governors elected tonight may find themselves holding a veto pen in another significant redistricting session to comply with any new Supreme Court directive. Early Voting: Differing Totals: There is no question that the 2022 midterm early voting totals have eclipsed that of the 2018 midterm. This is not particularly surprising since more states are offering early voting systems. In 2022, only Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, and Rhode Island did not offer a form of early voting in addition to their excused absence voting procedure.
Several organizations are charting early voting and are currently reporting slightly different numbers. The Target Smart organization, which has the most detailed information, sees 38.56 million people having already cast their ballots. NBC News reports that figure at 40.06 million, and the United States Elections Project, run through the University of Florida, finds the national early vote total at 39.27 million. In all, however, these early vote totals already exceed the 2018 total of 36.1 million. Using the Target Smart figures, since they publish partisan projections for the cast votes, the 2022 midterm total reaches 44.4% of the 2020 presidential election early votes, with Democratic vote share running 1.7 percentage points ahead of their previous mark, and Republicans slightly behind (0.4 percent under their 2020 presidential election early vote share). What that means for the overall 2022 election results remains difficult to predict. Iowa: Sen. Grassley Pulling Away: In early October, Selzer & Company, viewed as Iowa’s most accurate pollster in their regular surveys for the Des Moines Register newspaper, found Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) leading retired Navy Admiral Michael Franken (D) with only a three-percentage point margin, 46-43%. On Friday, the new Selzer poll was released, and it is obvious that Sen. Grassley has righted his campaign ship.
The current Selzer & Company survey (for the Des Moines Register; 10/31-11/3; 801 IA likely general election voters; live interview) projects the Senator to now be holding a double-digit 53-41% lead as the election cycle turns into its final weekend. At 89 years old, Sen. Grassley appears well positioned to clinch an eighth Senatorial term on Tuesday night. OH-13: Dem Up Two: Ohio’s new 13th District, anchored in the city of Akron and comprised from parts of five current congressional districts including 28% of Rep. Tim Ryan’s (D-Warren/Youngstown) constituency, is cast as a toss-up district with a FiveThirtyEight data organization rating of R+2. The RRH Elections survey research firm conducted a series of closing polls, and tested the tight contest between attorney Madison Gesiotto Gilbert (R) and state Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron). Not surprisingly, we see a close result, 46-44%, in favor of Rep. Sykes.
OR-4: Skarlatos and Hoyle in Dead Heat: The Oregon polling and early vote patterns suggest Republicans are on the upswing in this most liberal of states, but we’ll see if such rings true tomorrow night. One race that hasn’t attracted a great deal of attention is the 4th District battle to replace retiring Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-Springfield/Eugene). The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 4th District as D+9, but the RRH Elections poll of this race (10/23-26; 529 OR-4 likely general election voters; interactive voice response system & text) sees the contest between state Labor Commissioner Val Hoyle (D) and military veteran and 2020 Republican congressional nominee Alek Skarlatos falling into a 45-45% tie. It would be one of the night’s biggest surprises if this race flips to Skarlatos even with signs pointing to an improved Republican position. Yet, we see this as another race to watch on Tuesday night. VA-7: Late Oct Survey Reveals Tied Congressional Race: With millions being spent to attack challenger Yesli Vega (R) on abortion and Virginia Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen) as a 100% supporter of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), it appears either both sides are scoring points, or they are not moving many voters. A late October Wick/RRH Elections poll (10/23-26; 525 VA-7 likely general election voters; interactive voice response system & text) finds the two candidates tied at 47% apiece. The new 7th District is rated D+2, but the constituency is 75% new for Rep. Spanberger. Therefore, the electorate is performing as one would expect irrespective of the ad messages, and Tuesday’s final result is highly uncertain. Arizona: Sen. Kelly (D) and Republican Masters in Dead Heat; Already, in the closing days of the 2022 election cycle, the Arizona Senate race has been one of the most heavily polled contests. According to the four latest surveys, the closeness of this contest could send the counting process into political overtime.
The four pollsters, Insider Advantage, Remington Research Group, Highmark, and Civiqs, all surveying within the 10/29-11/2 period and questioning from 500 to 1,071 likely general election voters through various sampling techniques each independently found almost identical results. That is, Sen. Mark Kelly (D) and venture capitalist Blake Masters (R) are either tied or separated only by just one percentage point. This is a clear indication the race is a pure toss-up heading into Tuesday night. Georgia: Herschel Walker Now Leading in Most Polls; At the end of this week, we see four pollsters releasing surveys, and three of the four show a break toward Mr. Walker. The Remington Research Group (11/1-2; 1,150 GA likely general election voters) posts Mr. Walker to a 49-45% edge over Sen. Raphael Warnock (D). Echelon Insights (10/31-11/2; 500 GA likely voters; live interview & text) arrives at exactly the same ballot test result as RRG. The Moore Information Group, polling for the Walker campaign, also came to virtually the same conclusion, 49-44%. But, Survey USA (10/29-11/2; 1,171 GA likely voters; online) and Marist College (10/31-11/2; 1,009 GA likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) saw the race differently. S-USA found Sen. Warnock holding a 49-43% advantage while Marist found a 48-48% tie. MI-7: St. Sen. Tom Barrett (R) at Parity with Rep. Slotkin (D): Mitchell Research, polling as they often do for the MIRS news service (11/2; 402 MI-7 likely general election voters; interactive voice response system) sees the contest between Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Holly) and state Sen. Tom Barrett (R-Lansing) falling into a statistical 48-48% tie, with the state legislator leading on the actual count by less than a percentage point. Should Mr. Barrett win, it would virtually guarantee that the Democrats will take the loss over Michigan dropping a congressional seat in national reapportionment.
Arizona: Kelly-Masters Dead Heat Yields Kari Lake (R) Gubernatorial Edge: The aforementioned quartet of pollsters (see Arizona Senate above), Insider Advantage, Remington Research Group, Highmark, and Civiqs, also see Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake leading Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs. The Lake margin ranges from one to three points. Though her leads are small, they are consistent through 17 recent studies that project her as the leader. Only two pollsters since October 11th find Ms. Hobbs holding the ballot test edge, and then only by one percentage point in both instances. Therefore, it is fair to give Ms. Lake the edge heading into election day.
Georgia: Gov. Kemp Pulling Away in New Polls: The aforementioned University of Georgia poll for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (see Georgia Senate above) also tested the state’s competitive Governor’s race. Here, incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp (R) has led former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D) in polling throughout the election cycle. The UGA poll is consistent with this common finding. Again, running far ahead of Republican Senate nominee Herschel Walker, Gov. Kemp posts a 51-44% advantage, well beyond the polling margin of error for such a statewide poll. Three of the four pollsters that tested the Senate race in the last few days also asked a question about the Governor’s campaign. Remington Research, Echelon Insights, and Survey USA all find Mr. Kemp leading Ms. Abrams by 14, 7, and 7 points, respectively. It also appears clear that Gov. Kemp is headed toward a clear victory once ballot counting officially begins. |
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