It has been commonly reported upon that four-term Rep. Rob Woodall (R-Lawrenceville) has a much more competitive re-election battle on his hands this year than the other three times when he appeared on the ballot as the incumbent. A new JMC Analytics poll (10/13-18; 500 GA-7 likely voters) finds the Congressman leading his opponent, former state Senate Budget director Carolyn Bourdeaux (D), but with only a 49-43% advantage. While Rep. Woodall must continue to be considered a clear favorite for re-election from what should be a reliable Republican district, this is becoming yet another race to watch.
As they usually do in the days preceding major elections, Hendrix College surveyed the Arkansas electorate. The only even quasi-competitive congressional campaign lies in the Little Rock anchored 2nd District. Here, state Rep. Clarke Tucker (D-Little Rock) is challenging two-term US Rep. French Hill (R-Little Rock).
Hendrix’s survey (10/17-18; 590 AR-2 likely voters) finds Rep. Hill holding a relatively strong 52-40% lead over Mr. Tucker, which tracks with the district’s voting history. Mr. Hill won his first two elections by eight and 21 points, respectively, in 2014 and 2016. The Arizona-based Data Orbital polling firm (10/16-17; 600 AZ likely voters) finds Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Phoenix) again assuming a small lead over Rep. Martha McSally (R-Tucson). But, the results are from a turnout model that project a record Democratic surge and another that forecasts a historically-based high Democratic turnout.
Under the record Democratic turnout model, which means the party’s vote is nine points higher than past midterm turnouts, Sinema leads 48-40%. Under a turnout projection that gives the Democrats a participation factor on the high side of actual voter history but not record-breaking - which means a five-points higher than average Democratic vote according to DO - Sinema posts a 46-41% result. With Gov. Doug Ducey (R) pulling away in all polling, including Data Orbital’s own gubernatorial survey (10/1-3; Ducey leading 52-34%), it seems inconsistent to foresee a Democratic vote so much higher than the historical average. Therefore, this poll’s reliability could be open to question. Public Policy Polling conducted a healthcare survey for the Protect our Care organization (10/15-16; 648 NV likely voters). The questionnaire contained several questions designed to promote the Democratic position on healthcare and detract from the Republicans. Considering this, Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-Henderson) holds a 48-46% lead over Sen. Dean Heller (R) according to the PPP results.
Recently, most polling has shown Sen. Heller leading, so these results, especially when push questions are involved, are not wholly inconsistent with the recent trend. The ballot test actually looks more favorably toward Sen. Heller when seeing his favorability index dropping to relatively poor 40:52% in this poll. This compares unfavorably even to President Trump’s index that posts a better 46:50%. If there is a state that appears headed toward the Democrats, it’s Michigan. That’s why two new US House polls from MIRS for Fox 2 Detroit are surprising.
First, in the 8th CD, a race that Democrats are counting among their impending victories, the MIRS research study (Target Insyght; poll dates not released; 500 MI-8 registered voters; automated) finds Rep. Mike Bishop (R-Rochester/Lansing) leading challenger Elissa Slotkin (D), 48-45%. In the open 11th District (Rep. Dave Trott-R, retiring), the MIRS survey (Target Insyght; poll dates not released; 500 MI-11 registered voters; automated) finds the two contenders, businesswoman Lena Epstein (R) and former Treasury Department official Haley Stevens (D), tied at 48%. This is another seat that most other data projects for the Democratic nominee. It has long been suggested that either Gov. Bill Walker (I) or former Sen. Mark Begich (D) drop out of the Governor’s race to coalesce their support against Republican former state Senator Mike Dunleavy. All polls were showing Mr. Dunleavy with a substantial lead in the three-way contest.
In an unexpected move over the weekend, one candidate did drop out. In a surprising announcement, Gov. Walker stated he is ending his campaign three weeks before the election and quickly yielded to Mr. Begich. This development makes the contest more competitive and will drastically change the closing days. Whether or not projected outcome of a Dunleavy victory becomes distorted remains to be seen, but certainly former Sen. Begich is now in an unimpeded position to score a come-from-behind victory. Vox Populi also surveyed the tight Nevada Senate race. Their new Silver State poll (10/13-15; 613 NV “active” voters) finds the two candidates, Sen. Dean Heller (R) and Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-Henderson), tied at 44% apiece. When pushed, the undecideds lean a bit more to Rosen, given her an overall edge of 51-49%.
These results are consistent with most Nevada polling. Recently, several surveys have shown Sen. Heller to be in better shape but, overall, the data continues to find that the margin between these two candidates is razor thin and either can win the race. Though Sen. Joe Manchin (D) has led consistently throughout this campaign, the common political wisdom suggested that his battle with Republican Attorney General Patrick Morrisey would tighten as Election Day began to draw near.
Vox Populi also tested the Mountain State Senate race (10/13-15; 789 WV “active” voters) and found the Senator maintaining a lead, but a smaller one than earlier perceived. This ballot test found a 44-40% split in Sen. Manchin’s favor, with undecideds breaking his way when pushed. The secondary ballot test yielded a 53-47% split. Mr. Morrisey will have to make a major move now if he is to reverse the race’s trajectory on Election Day. The Indiana Senate race seen very few publicly released polls, and now we have a pair in two days. Yesterday, we reported upon a Gravis Marketing survey (9/29-10-2; 695 IN likely voters) that posted Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) to a 44-40% edge over former state Representative and international businessman Mike Braun (R). Late in the week, Vox Populi produced their Indiana poll (10/13-15; 783 IN “active” voters), which projects a greater advantage for Sen. Donnelly. According to their results, the Democratic incumbent leads Mr. Braun, 44-36%.
A pair of newly released surveys stake New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez (D) to leads of varying degrees. Monmouth University (10/11-15; 527 NJ likely voters) sees the Senator holding a 49-40% margin over former pharmaceutical company CEO Bob Hugin (R), but the Senator’s personal favorability index, as we have seen all year, is an upside down 28:45% positive to negative.
In an interesting question, Monmouth asked if the individual respondent’s vote for US Senate would have more to do with Sen. Menendez or President Trump. In a state where President Trump’s image is just as negative as Menendez’s far more people answered (56-31%) that their vote for Senate would be based upon their view of President Trump. Such a polling margin on such a question likely ensures Sen. Menendez’s re-election. But, the National Research firm (released 10/18; 600 NJ likely voters) sees the race much differently, and places Mr. Hugin within the polling margin of error. According to NR, the spread is only 42-40% with Sen. Menendez maintaining a slight edge. |
The Rundown BlogLearn more about the candidates running in key elections across the United States. Archives
May 2024
Categories
All
|
|
BIPAC© 2022 BIPAC. All rights reserved
|