The Arizona-based Data Orbital polling firm (10/16-17; 600 AZ likely voters) finds Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Phoenix) again assuming a small lead over Rep. Martha McSally (R-Tucson). But, the results are from a turnout model that project a record Democratic surge and another that forecasts a historically-based high Democratic turnout.
Under the record Democratic turnout model, which means the party’s vote is nine points higher than past midterm turnouts, Sinema leads 48-40%. Under a turnout projection that gives the Democrats a participation factor on the high side of actual voter history but not record-breaking - which means a five-points higher than average Democratic vote according to DO - Sinema posts a 46-41% result.
With Gov. Doug Ducey (R) pulling away in all polling, including Data Orbital’s own gubernatorial survey (10/1-3; Ducey leading 52-34%), it seems inconsistent to foresee a Democratic vote so much higher than the historical average. Therefore, this poll’s reliability could be open to question.
The Rundown Blog
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