A pair of newly released surveys stake New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez (D) to leads of varying degrees. Monmouth University (10/11-15; 527 NJ likely voters) sees the Senator holding a 49-40% margin over former pharmaceutical company CEO Bob Hugin (R), but the Senator’s personal favorability index, as we have seen all year, is an upside down 28:45% positive to negative.
In an interesting question, Monmouth asked if the individual respondent’s vote for US Senate would have more to do with Sen. Menendez or President Trump. In a state where President Trump’s image is just as negative as Menendez’s far more people answered (56-31%) that their vote for Senate would be based upon their view of President Trump. Such a polling margin on such a question likely ensures Sen. Menendez’s re-election.
But, the National Research firm (released 10/18; 600 NJ likely voters) sees the race much differently, and places Mr. Hugin within the polling margin of error. According to NR, the spread is only 42-40% with Sen. Menendez maintaining a slight edge.
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