The Alaska political parties can now adopt an Independent candidate as their individual nominee according to a Superior Court ruling in Alaska, yesterday. This opens the door for the Democratic Party possibly awarding their ballot line to Independent Gov. Bill Walker in his campaign for re-election. Mr. Walker was the de facto Democratic nominee in 2014, when he ousted Gov. Sean Parnell (R) as an Independent with a Democratic running mate. The ruling may be moot from a practical standpoint, however, if former Sen. Mark Begich (D) decides to enter the race, which he admits to be considering. If so, an interesting three-way race will develop. If not, watch the Democrats again coalesce behind Walker as a way to defeat an eventual Republican opponent.
--Jim Ellis A Dan Jones & Associates poll (10/9-16; 410 UT-3 registered voters) finds Provo Mayor John Curtis (R) in strong shape as we head into the final weeks of the special election campaign to replace resigned Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Alpine/Sandy). According to the Jones company results, Mr. Curtis has a commanding 46-19% lead over physician Kathryn Allen, the Democratic nominee. Considering that Hillary Clinton even failed to place second here last November, this poll is likely in the correct realm even though it appears to have some methodological flaws. Expect Mayor Curtis to hold this seat for the GOP on November 7th.
--Jim Ellis It has been presumed for months that two-term Governor and former Republican presidential candidate Scott Walker would run for a third term, and now he has made the speculation official. Yesterday, Mr. Walker declared his candidacy for re-election and appears in a credible position to win again.
Wisconsin voters have a history of awarding long tenures to its Governors. Republican former Gov. Tommy Thompson was elected four consecutive times beginning in 1986, for example. Thirteen Democrats are in the race, but likely the most prominent are Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers and Madison Mayor Paul Soglin. Gov. Walker can expect a competitive general election regardless of whom he eventually faces. The Wisconsin primary won’t be until August, so it will be months until we see how the Democratic primary actually unfolds. --Jim Ellis A day after Monmouth University released their new political poll (10/12-16; 408 VA likely voters) projecting Republican Ed Gillespie to be leading Lt. Governor Ralph Northam (D) 48-47%, Quinnipiac University releases their own survey (10/12-17; 1,088 VA likely voters) that sees the race moving in the opposite direction. According to the Q-Poll data, Northam commands the race, 53-39%.
Quinnipiac reveals a significant gender gap favoring Northam with an Independent swing toward the Democrat equivalent to the overall result. The poll appears to contain a Democratic skew because the partisan division included only 23% self-identified Republicans, far below what one normally sees in Virginia polls. Because the state does not register voters by party, it is difficult to formulate a verifiable party count, but even the recent voting history does not support a ten-point Democratic advantage, where Republican ID is below 25% of the electorate. Though the Monmouth poll may well be too favorable for Gillespie, there is no credible evidence to suggest that Northam has anything close to a 14-point lead, particularly when late momentum appears to be moving Gillespie’s way. --Jim Ellis The controversial Washington Post and 60 minutes stories attacking Rep. Tom Marino (R-Williamsport) for his role in advocating a new law that allegedly makes it more difficult for the Drug Enforcement Agency to stop opiates has resulted in the Congressman withdrawing his name as the nominee to head the National Drug Control Policy agency. This means that his 10th District seat is no longer open, at least for the time being.
It is now certain there will be no special election here, but Mr. Marino did not mention whether or not he would seek re-election to the House since he will not be moving into the Administration. It is presumed that Rep. Marino will have little trouble winning another term, but the Pennsylvania redistricting case still working its way through the state court system could make radical changes to the statewide map, particularly if any new court-drawn lines take effect before the 2018 election. --Jim Ellis After a long series of polls favorable to Lt. Governor Ralph Northam (D) in his quest to outpace Republican Ed Gillespie and succeed term-limited Governor Terry McAuliffe (D), the new Monmouth University poll (10/12-16; 408 VA likely voters) produces the opposite result. The New Jersey University’s data shows Gillespie now pulling into a slight one-point 48-47% lead. The movement could relate to ads the Gillespie Campaign has been running, attacking Northam for what the script calls his weak record on law enforcement as it relates to immigration and sanctuary cities.
Though other new polls still suggest a lead for Lt. Gov. Northam, the trend is moving in Mr. Gillespie’s direction. After finding Northam ahead by as much as 49-42% just a week ago, the Christopher Newport University polling sector again released new data (10/9-13; 642 VA likely voters). According to CNU, Mr. Northam maintains a shrinking lead. This time their results find the spread to be 48-44%. --Jim Ellis A Mitchell Research-MIRS News Service Michigan poll (9/21-24, but released 10/11; 400 MI GOP likely voters) testing the state’s Republican electorate finds Attorney General and former US Congressman Bill Schuette (R-Midland) forging ahead of Lt. Gov. Brian Calley as the two begin their GOP primary campaign to succeed term-limited Gov. Rick Snyder (R).
According to the results, Mr. Schuette has a commanding 52-13% lead for the party nomination in an election that won’t be decided until August of next year. The eventual winner faces the Democratic primary victor, a multi-candidate battle among former state Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer, ex-Detroit Health Department Director Abdul El-Sayed, and four less prominent party candidates. The Michigan Governor’s race is one of the critical redistricting gubernatorial contests that will highlight the 2018 election cycle. It is a must-win for both parties and will likely go to toss-up status. --Jim Ellis Fairleigh Dickinson University surveyed the New Jersey electorate in advance of the state’s November 7th gubernatorial election and unsurprisingly found the same basic result that all other pollsters have determined. The poll (10/11-15; 658 NJ likely voters pulled from a registered voters list complete with voter history) projects former US Ambassador to Germany and Wall Street executive Phil Murphy (D) leading Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno (R), 47-33%. Again, Gov. Chris Christie’s unpopularity is a factor. Only 16% of those sampled gave the Governor a positive rating, with 43% saying he is a “major” factor in this election. Within this latter subset, 79% say they support Mr. Murphy.
--Jim Ellis The Ohio Governor’s race will be one of the most intensely watched political contests in the country next year. The campaign already features an all-star political card from both political parties: the state’s Lt. Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, a US Congressman, former US Representative, and state Senate Minority Leader (who resigned his leadership position to run for Governor). Additionally, major redistricting power awaits the eventual winner.
Ohio State Supreme Court Justice Bill O’Neill is again indicating that he is looking to join the Democratic primary, adding yet another candidate. He had considered doing so earlier but it appeared that US Consumer Financial Protection Bureau director Richard Cordray, a former Ohio Attorney General, was planning a return to Ohio to the state to enter the race. This was supposed to happen in September but didn’t, and now with signals suggesting Cordray may not run, Justice O’Neill returns to the precipice of becoming a candidate. Both primaries and the general election will be very important campaigns. Gov. John Kasich (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. --Jim Ellis After originally saying he would not run for the Senate, Tennessee former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) is now admitting that he is re-thinking his position and will consider forming a new statewide campaign. Democrats need him in the race to make this open seat competitive, since they have so few Republican targets in 2018. Even if Mr. Bredesen becomes a candidate, the GOP will be favored. Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Brentwood) appears to be the early leading candidate, but former US Rep. Stephen Fincher (R-Crockett County) appears poised to also enter the race. Sen. Bob Corker (R) is retiring upon completion of his second term.
--Jim Ellis |
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