The open Georgia Governor’s race has important 2021 redistricting ramifications, particularly since the state appears on the cusp of adding a new seat to its delegation. Therefore, Landmark/Rosetta Stone (10/16-17; 800 GA Republican voters) conducted a survey released to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and found Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle holding a substantial advantage against his GOP nomination campaign opponents. According to the Landmark results, Mr. Cagle scores a support factor of 35%, well ahead of second place finisher Hunter Hill (9%), an ex-Georgia state Senator, Secretary of State Brian Kemp (7%), and state Sen. Michael Williams (R-Cumming @ 4%). Gov. Nathan Deal (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.
--Jim Ellis Last week we reported that two-term Rep. Mia Love (R-Saratoga Springs) has drawn Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams as her projected Democratic opponent. This week, Dan Jones & Associates released a 4th District poll that pairs the two in the likely general election match-up. According to the Jones’ company results conducted for the Salt Lake Tribune (10/9-18; 402 UT-4 registered voters), Rep. Love begins the race with only a 48-42% edge. In order to put the US House majority in play, Democrats must seriously challenge for districts such as this, and it appears they have found a credible candidate to do so.
--Jim Ellis After State Senate President Kevin de Leon (D-Los Angeles) announced he would challenge Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), the Capitol Weekly newspaper published a September Sextant Strategies poll that tested the now unfolding Senate race. The survey was unusual in that the pollsters used Republican gubernatorial candidate John Cox as a “stand-in” GOP Senate candidate. Therefore, such a move could dramatically change the polling results. The poll was conducted during unidentified dates in September, but uses healthy sample sizes: 1,554 general election interviews, and 1,197 for the all-candidate primary.
Sen. Feinstein does not fare as well as one might guess. Her favorability rating is only 49:43% among general election voters. On the primary ballot test, she would lead 40-32-14%, over Cox and de Leon, respectively. This is where including non-candidate Cox likely skews the result. In a proposed Feinstein-de Leon general election pairing, Sen. Feinstein’s lead is 36-17%, with 28% (largely Republicans) who say they would vote for neither. More polling is needed before we can develop an accurate picture of the California Senate situation, but these preliminary numbers do reveal some weakness for Sen. Feinstein. --Jim Ellis Peter Tedeschi (R), chairman of the Tedeschi Food Shops, which owns 181 stores throughout New England, announced that he will challenge four-term Rep. Bill Keating (D-Bourne/Cape Cod) next year in a contest that could become competitive. The district begins south of Boston hugging the Atlantic Ocean coastline and includes the entire Cape Cod peninsula. It then moves west to annex the cities of Fall River and New Bedford. Though reliably Democratic, this district can swing Republican in statewide contests. Gov. Charlie Baker (R) will have to run well here to win re-election, thus ensuring a strong Republican turnout operation within the CD boundaries. Mr. Keating has averaged an underwhelming 52.7% average victory margin in his four congressional races, weak for a Massachusetts Democrat. This race could become one to watch.
--Jim Ellis While most of the early attention is focusing on US Rep. Colleen Hanabusa’s (D-Honolulu) challenge to Gov. David Ige in the Democratic primary, the general election now comes into focus. State House Minority Leader Andria Tupola (R-Wai’anae Coast) announced that she will run for Governor, giving the GOP a credible standard bearer in the general election. Democrats are favor to hold the position, but the strong incumbent primary challenge creates some uncertainty.
--Jim Ellis Remington Research went into the field just as Attorney General Josh Hawley (R) was announcing his challenge to Sen. Claire McCaskill (D). The survey (10/11-12; 965 MO likely voters) finds the incumbent trailing early. According to the ballot test data, Mr. Hawley jumps out to a tight 48-45% edge over the two-term Senator.
Interestingly, though President Trump (48:47% favorable to unfavorable) and Gov. Eric Greitens’ (46:39% positive to negative) job approval indexes were tested, the questionnaire apparently did not include such a question about either Sen. McCaskill or AG Hawley. This is the first of what will be a large number of Missouri Senate polls that we can count on seeing during the next year. --Jim Ellis Two-term Rep. Mia Love (R-Saratoga Springs) has drawn a major opponent for her second re-election campaign. Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams yesterday announced that he will seek the Democratic nomination for the purpose of challenging Ms. Love in the general election. The Congresswoman, while winning two of her three congressional campaigns, has under-performed the average Republican vote percentage. Therefore, against Mr. McAdams, who has won countywide as a Democrat, we can expect a relatively competitive general election.
The Congresswoman was first elected in the 2014 Republican wave election, but did so with only a 51-46% victory margin over attorney Doug Owens (D), the son of the late former Congressman Wayne Owens (D-Salt Lake City). She returned to easily defeat Mr. Owens last November, 54-41%, but the upcoming Love-McAdams campaign will certainly be one to watch. --Jim Ellis Despite the release Wednesday of a Fox News poll, one in which we believe is methodologically flawed, that found former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore (R) and ex-US Attorney Doug Jones (D) tied at 42%, apiece, a new Raycom News Network survey (10/16, 3,000 AL likely voters) finds a drastically different result. As with other polls released before the Fox results, the Raycom survey finds Judge Moore to be holding a double-digit lead. According to their numbers, the spread is 51-40% in favor of the Republican candidate. Much more to come here before this race is finally decided on December 12th.
--Jim Ellis Democrats may be on the verge of recruiting a credible candidate in the Mississippi Senate race. Public Service Commissioner Brandon Pressley, who represents the northern sector district on the three-member statewide body, is reportedly considering entering next year’s race. Mr. Pressley is a cousin to the late rock and roll legend, since his grandfather and Elvis Pressley’s grandfather were brothers. Though Mr. Pressley is credible, the Republicans are still strong favorites to hold the Magnolia State seat.
The bigger Mississippi story is whether state Sen. Chris McDaniel (R-Ellis County) challenges Sen. Roger Wicker in the Republican primary. In any event, and perhaps both in the primary and general, it appears Sen. Wicker will have a more active election year than originally forecast. --Jim Ellis Nine-term Rep. Pat Tiberi (R-Galena/ Franklin County) made public his intention to resign from the House before January 31st in order to become president of the Ohio Business Roundtable organization. The Congressman also desires to be in Ohio full-time with his family and elderly widowed father, providing further reasons for his decision to leave Congress. Earlier this year Mr. Tiberi flirted with running for the Senate and went on a fundraising tear, only to leave it all behind just a few months later. His campaign treasury exceeds $6 million, which could go to the national party, help fund an affiliated political action committee, or remain in the bank in case the Congressman decides upon a future return to elective politics.
The move will necessitate Gov. John Kasich (R) calling a special election to fill the seat he, himself, held for 18 years. Rep. Tiberi was first elected in 2000 to replace Mr. Kasich upon the latter’s retirement from the House. The newly open Columbus area seat means there will be at least 30 incumbent-less districts nationwide in the 2018 election cycle. --Jim Ellis |
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