A new poll from the Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research organizations for AARP (9/6-11; 1,050 AK likely voters; 500 statewide sample; 550 voters 50 years of age and older; live interview & text) sees the Alaska Senate race heading in a much different direction than even the jungle primary results revealed. The AARP poll finds former Alaska Administration Director Kelly Tshibaka (R) leading Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R), 43-35%, which is a significant change from the August 16th primary vote when the Senator topped her main opponent, 45-39%.
The AARP pollsters delved into the Ranked Choice rounds and found that in the final vote, Sen. Murkowski and Ms. Tshibaka fall into a virtual dead heat tie. The pollsters indicated the internal raw number final round count among the survey participants was 227 for Sen. Murkowski and 224 for Ms. Tshibaka. The pollsters then stated that it is “an understatement to call that within the margin of error.” Because the race is coming down to a pair of Republicans battling, the partisan context is not an issue. Still, the implications associated with this major contest are of national political interest. While the New Hampshire results are not completely final, retired Army General Don Bolduc has been projected as the Republican primary winner and he now advances to face Sen. Maggie Hassan (D). The Senator’s campaign wasted no time in attacking Bolduc, hitting him with an abortion ad the day after the primary ended.
Gen. Bolduc’s margin of victory over state Senate President Chuck Morse (R-Salem) will be in the neighborhood of 1,800 votes when all the counting is finally complete. Though former President Trump did not endorse a candidate in the Senate race, his supporters had a big night on Tuesday and are largely credited with delivering the victory. In responding to whether the national Republican establishment will support Bolduc, after many in the party question whether he is strong enough to defeat Hassan and a great effort was spent in trying to deny him the nomination, the question was basically answered. Yesterday, Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), the National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman, said his committee remains fully committed to New Hampshire as a key target race. The organization has over $9 million in media time already reserved for the Granite State’s general election. While some controversy had been brewing around Gov. Kevin Stitt (R), yesterday we saw the first evidence that the 2022 Oklahoma Governor’s race could become competitive. The Sooner Poll, a survey taken regularly in Oklahoma elections for two television news stations in the state (9/2-7; 402 OK likely general election voters; live interview) finds Gov. Stitt leading his Democratic opponent, state Superintendent of Public Instruction Joy Hofmeister, by just a single percentage point, 44-43%.
The closeness stems from Gov. Stitt’s favorability rating, which is upside down at 46:53% favorable to unfavorable. This race could be one to watch as it unfolds in the final weeks. Two surveys were just released in the New Mexico Governor’s race after a long period with no public data. Both Survey USA (9/8-12; 558 NM likely general election voters; online) and Emerson College (9/8-11; 1,000 NM likely general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) find Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) now developing a discernible lead over former television news meteorologist Mark Ronchetti (R).
S-USA pegs the Governor’s advantage to be twelve points, at 48-36%, while Emerson sees her ahead, but in a closer 48-43% count. Emerson College released new polling figures on the Connecticut Senate race, the first public numbers we’ve seen since the state’s early August primary. The Emerson poll (9/7-9; 1,000 CT likely general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) posts Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D) to a 49-36% lead over Republican nominee Leora Levy, a former Ambassadorial nominee in the Trump Administration. While the Senator has a strong advantage, the margins suggest a potential climate of competitiveness developing, but it is doubtful the Levy campaign will have the ability to build serious upset potential.
The other outstanding race from the New Hampshire primary was the 2nd District GOP contest. This race was just as close as the Senate campaign, but it now it is certain that former Hillsborough County Treasurer Robert Burns defeated Keene Mayor George Hansel by just under three percentage points or a little over 1,600 votes. He now advances to face five-term Rep. Annie Kuster (D-Hopkinton/Concord).
This is another situation where the Trump-backed candidate won and people question how effective the challenge will be in the general election. In this case, however, Mr. Burns appears to be a stronger candidate with the capability of running a professional challenge effort opposite Rep. Kuster. Gov. Dan McKee, who ascended to his office when then-Gov. Gina Raimondo (D) resigned to become US Commerce Secretary, eked out a close victory in the Rhode Island Democratic primary last night, securing about one-third of the vote, which was enough to claim a plurality win.
Gov. McKee defeated corporate CEO Helena Foulkes and RI Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea, who finished a close second and third. The Governor now advances into the general election to face the new Republican nominee, businesswoman Ashley Kalus (R), and is categorized as a heavy favorite in this most Democratic of states. In the contested open 2nd Congressional District seat, as expected, state Treasurer Seth Magaziner (D), who left the Governor’s race to run in the open 2nd when 11-term Rep. Jim Langevin (D-Warwick) announced his retirement, easily captured the Democratic nomination with a 54% victory total in a field of six candidates. Mr. Magaziner now opposes former Cranston Mayor and ex-gubernatorial nominee Allan Fung who was unopposed in the Republican primary. Though the district is heavily Democratic, polling shows the open 2nd can become competitive in a shortened general election cycle. The last major US Senate primary is close to concluding as retired Army General Don Bolduc, despite being wildly outspent, appears to have turned back state Senate President Chuck Morse’s late race momentum and is staked to a one-point, 37-36% lead (1,270 votes) in the New Hampshire Republican Senate primary with 85% of the expected vote counted. Though the margin is tight, it is most likely that Gen. Bolduc will advance into a shortened general election cycle against incumbent Sen. Maggie Hassan (D).
A great deal of controversy surrounded this primary, particularly a verbal sparring battle between Gen. Bolduc and Gov. Chris Sununu (R). Both had unflattering things to say about the other, and now it will be interesting if we see a quick healing between the two. No doubt Democrats will use the Governor’s words against Bolduc. Even before the votes were tabulated, however, Mr. Sununu was sending more conciliatory signals and stressing the importance of Republicans uniting to defeat Sen. Hassan, whom he says, “nobody likes.” In the tight House races, former Trump White House aide Karoline Leavitt won the GOP nomination in the swing 1st District, defeating 2020 nominee Matt Mowers, 35-25%, with former television news reporter Gail Huff Brown placing third with just under 18% of the party primary vote. Ms. Brown is the wife of former Massachusetts Senator and ex-Ambassador to New Zealand Scott Brown (D), who also ran for the Senate in 2014 from New Hampshire. Ms. Leavitt now advances into the general election to face two-term Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) in the district that has defeated more incumbents than any other seat since 2004. In 2020, Mr. Pappas defeated Mr. Mowers, 51-46%, which is the strongest re-election margin for an incumbent since former US Representative, and now state Senate Majority Leader, Jeb Bradley (R) was re-elected 16 years ago with 63% of the vote. In the western 2nd District, former Hillsborough County (Manchester) Treasurer Robert Burns holds an edge of just over 1,000-vote opposite Keene Mayor George Hansel in a GOP congressional primary that shows only about 75% of the vote as being counted. The winner faces five-term Rep. Annie Kuster (D-Hopkinton/Concord) in a contest that will also become highly competitive. After two surveys posted Gov. Kathy Hochul’s (D) lead over US Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley/East Long Island) within single digits, Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling (9/6-8; 510 NY likely and probable general election voters; live interview & text) finds the Governor leading 54-39% lead. This is just one of a series of states that is currently producing polling with wildly different results. Whether her lead is small or larger, Gov. Hochul remains the favorite to clinch victory in November.
RMG Research, again conducting a series of polls for US Term Limits, tested three New York congressional districts and found close contests developing in each. In the open Long Island 3rd CD (8/27-9/2; 400 NY-3 likely general election voters; weighted) RMG projects a very tight contest between Democrat Robert Zimmerman and Republican George Santos. The pair were separated by just one-point on the ballot test, 42-41%, in the Democrat’s favor.
In two other races, under identical methodology, Democrat Josh Riley leads Republican Marc Molinaro by a tight 44-41% margin in the open 19th CD, and Republican Brandon Williams holds a 43-40% edge over Democrat Francis Conole in the Syracuse anchored new 22nd CD. |
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