Georgia: Gov. Kemp Expands Lead: The aforementioned Atlanta Journal-Constitution/ University of Georgia poll (see Georgia Senate above) also tested the state’s hot Governor’s race. Gov. Brian Kemp (R) has been performing strongly in the polls since his landside 74-22% victory over former US Senator David Perdue in the May Republican primary. The AJC/UGA numbers give the Governor a 50-42% advantage beyond the polling margin of error over former state House Minority Leader and 2018 gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams (D).
Oregon: Minor Party Candidate Withdraws: One of the more interesting gubernatorial campaigns is found in the Beaver State of Oregon. The fact that Independent candidate Betsy Johnson, a former Democratic state Senator, has a legitimate chance to win the race is what makes this campaign unique in the 2022 election cycle. Ms. Johnson has done better in fundraising than either Democratic nominee Tina Kotek, the former state House Speaker, and Republican former state House Minority Leader Catherine Drazan. She is also competitive with the two major party nominees in the various statewide polls that have been conducted. Thus, Green Party nominee Nathalie Paravicini dropping out of the race and endorsing Ms. Kotek, as she did yesterday, actually becomes significant. The race has the potential of splitting close to evenly among the three candidates, meaning each has a legitimate chance to win. The Green Party candidate, even with only a percentage point or two of support, encouraging her voters to back Kotek could prove significant in the final count on election night. Arkansas: Rare Data:
It has been assumed that Sen. John Boozman (R) secured a third term in office when he won his contested Republican primary back in March. A Hendrix College/Talk Business Net survey, from the organizations that regularly sponsor Arkansas political polls, finds Mr. Boozman in predictably strong shape for the November election. The survey (9/12; 835 AR likely general election voters) gives the Senator a 44-31% advantage over civil rights activist and realtor Natalie James (D). Arizona: Two Pollsters, Same Tight Result: The Trafalgar Group’s new Arizona survey (9/14-17; 1,080 AZ likely general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees Sen. Mark Kelly’s (D) previously large lead dwindling to 47-45% over Republican venture capitalist Blake Masters. Earlier in September, Emerson College (9/6-7; 627 AZ likely general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) arrived at exactly the same conclusion: Sen. Kelly leading 47-45%. Remembering that the 2020 Senate race closed quickly against Kelly, limiting him to a 51-49% victory over appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R) after leading by an average margin of 6.6% through 21 October polls according to the Real Clear Politics polling archives, the 2022 race looks to be headed toward a very interesting conclusion. IA-3: An Unsurprising Dead Heat:
In one of America’s tightest congressional districts, Rep. Cindy Axne’s (D-Des Moines) campaign just made an interesting move. The Congresswoman’s political leadership yesterday released Rep. Axne’s new internal Impact Research survey (9/7-11; 500 IA-3 likely voters; live interview & text) that reports she and her Republican challenger, state Sen. Zach Nunn (R-Bondurant), are tied at 47% apiece. The point of releasing the poll, however, is to show emphasis on the abortion issue among the respondents, which the campaign strategists believe will swing voters to the Democratic incumbent. Even when knowing Sen. Nunn’s abortion position, however, the best Rep. Axne can do is tie, suggesting that despite deep disagreements over the issue in the central Iowa region it does not appear to be bringing any more voters into Axne’s camp. Her 47% support figure quoted in this poll is consistent with her two 49% victory percentages in 2020 and 2018. Minnesota: Gov. Walz With Comfortable Lead:
In a race where the polling has been inconsistent during the past few months, Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy has released a new ballot test result from their research study conducted for the Minneapolis Star Review and Minnesota Public Radio (9/12-14; 800 MN likely general election voters; live interview). The M-D conclusion finds Gov. Tim Walz (D) leading former state Sen. Scott Jensen (R), 48-41%. The Governor’s job approval score is 52:42% favorable to unfavorable. President Biden remains upside down in Minnesota on his favorability index, but the number is improving. In this M-D poll, 46% approve of the job the President is doing and 49% disapprove. Ohio: Conflicting Surveys: We are seeing places around the country where pollsters are producing very diverse ballot test results even when testing an electorate within the same time realm. The Ohio Governor’s race is another such example. A Civiqs organization poll, surveying for the Daily Kos Elections site (9/10-13; 780 OH likely general election voters; online) projects a close race developing between Gov. Mike DeWine (R) and Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley (D). The Civiqs ballot test projects Gov. DeWine to hold only a 44-41% edge. Emerson College, however, sees a much different margin when polling within exactly the same time frame. Their poll (9/10-13; 1,000 OH likely general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) yields the Governor a wide 50-33% spread over Mayor Whaley. The latter poll result is more consistent with other publicly released surveys for this campaign. Ohio: Conflicting Trends:
In the mid-August through early September period, three pollsters found US Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Warren/Youngstown) snatching the polling lead away from GOP author J.D. Vance. The research entities Impact Research, Suffolk University, and Fallon Research, in studies conducted during the August 17 through September 11 time realm, found Rep. Ryan trending ahead with margins between one and six points. Two news polls, however, see the race flipping back to Mr. Vance. Emerson College (9/10-13; 1,000 OH likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) and the Civiqs survey research entity, polling for the Daily Kos Election site (9/10-13; 780 OH likely general election voters), and in the field during the same period, see Mr. Vance now holding close leads of 44-40 and 48-45%, respectively. Wisconsin: Trend Favors Sen. Johnson: Since the August 9th Wisconsin primary, we’ve seen several polls conducted of the Wisconsin Senate campaign. Immediately after the nomination vote, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D) opened the general election cycle with a polling lead. Marquette University Law School, a regular Wisconsin pollster, found Mr. Barnes holding a 52-45% advantage over Sen. Ron Johnson in their August 10-15 poll of 713 likely Wisconsin general election voters. Late last week, Marquette released a new survey (9/6-11; 801 WI registered voters; live interview) and the law school research organization now posts Sen. Johnson to a slight 48-47% advantage. Civiqs, polling for the Daily Kos Election site (9/10-13; 780 WI likely general election voters), confirms the Marquette result. They find Sen. Johnson up 49-48%. Though the lead is small, the Johnson trend line is positive. OR-5: Getting Closer:
The Democratic survey research firm Global Strategy Group, polling for the 314 Action super PAC (9/1-8; 400 OR-5 likely general election voters) finds Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner, who defeated Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Canby) in the May primary election, leading businesswoman and former local mayor Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R), by a tight 41-38% margin. GSG finds the district statistics even closer, however. They see a Democratic partisan edge of just one percentage point, even though the party has a five-point voter registration advantage. In terms of the generic congressional vote, the Republicans have a one-point lead. Under various turnout models according to the GSG research, the race changes. If the turnout model is closer to what was found in the New Jersey and Virginia Governors’ races (2021), a Biden +5 model, the congressional race becomes a dead heat at 40-40%. Under both a 2014 and 2020 turnout model (Biden +10), McLeod-Skinner would establish a 42-38% spread. The trouble for Ms. McLeod-Skinner, in a district that slightly leans Democratic, is that she doesn’t reach beyond the low 40s under any turnout model. This suggests that Ms. Chavez-DeRemer has serious upset potential. PA-8: Dead Heat Developing: In what is appearing to be a classic example of a Democratic incumbent claiming independence but seeing Republican forces producing stats showing total compliance with the Biden agenda, the people of Pennsylvania’s northeast 8th Congressional District are dividing evenly. The Republican polling entity, Cygnal, surveying for the Jim Bognet campaign (9/6-8; 440 PA-8 likely general election voters), finds the two candidates, Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Moosic/Scranton) and Mr. Bognet, tied at 48-48%. At a R+8 partisan rating according to the FiveThirtyEight polling organization, PA-8 is the second most Republican district in the country that elects a Democrat to the House. The Marquette Law School Wisconsin poll (see Wisconsin Senate race above) also finds a tight Governor’s race. The MU survey posts Gov. Tony Evers (D) to a 47-44% lead over GOP nominee and businessman Tim Michels. If the undercount of Republican voters that has been present in recent Wisconsin races is again in evidence, Mr. Michels could already effectively be in a dead even race.
After seeing a series of three post-primary surveys where Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D) held a lead over Sen. Ron Johnson (R), the regular Marquette Law School Wisconsin poll (9/6-11; 801 WI registered voters; live interview) finds the incumbent forging a one-point edge, 49-48%. Lagging in the polls is nothing new for Sen. Johnson. In 2016, 30 polls were conducted of the Wisconsin Senate race according to the Real Clear Politics polling archive, and Sen. Johnson trailed in 29; yet, on election night, he claimed a three-point victory.
Though he was behind in most of the polling this year, the margins are much closer than in 2016, and Sen. Johnson has now already captured a lead. Compared to his last race against former Sen. Russ Feingold (D), the two-term incumbent appears to be in much better political shape in this election campaign. Last week’s surprise Impact Research poll that showed Independent challenger Evan McMullin leading Sen. Mike Lee (R) by a slight 47-46% margin has now been countered, at least to a degree. The Center Street PAC released the results of their new Utah survey (9/6-9; 563 UT likely general election voters) that posts Sen. Lee to only a 43-39% edge. The Utah Democratic Party did not field a candidate in order to coalesce behind Mr. McMullin. The move allowed Mr. McMullin a head-to-head match-up with the two-term incumbent, and it appears, at least in the short term, that the strategy to make this a competitive race has worked.
After several polls were released showing Republican Herschel Walker topping Sen. Raphael Warnock (D), Quinnipiac University publicized their most recent Georgia poll (9/8-12; 1,278 GA likely voters) that projects a different conclusion. Not only does the Q-Poll place Sen. Warnock back into the lead, but the margin, 52-46%, is larger than any regular poll released since July. More will have to be seen in order to determine if a new trend is forming or if the Q-Poll is an anomaly.
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