NY-19: Another Race Brandishing a Close Poll: Though Rep. Pat Ryan (D-Poughkeepsie) won the NY-19 special election in late August, he is seeking re-election in the 18th District. Attorney Josh Riley is the succeeding Democratic nominee who is opposing Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro (R). A new Garin Hart Yang Research Group poll (8/29-9/1; 403 NY-19 likely general election voters; live interview) again finds the race within the polling margin of error, like most competitive races around the country. The GHY data finds Mr. Riley leading Mr. Molinaro, 47-44%.
The new 19th CD has only 43% carryover from the current 19th where the August special election was held. Therefore, this race with a new candidate lineup is a much different campaign. The special election ended in a 51-49% Democratic victory. The new 19th is slightly more Democratic but still very much in play during the general election. This is yet another key House race carrying national implications toward determining the next majority. Three States Voting: Voters in DE, NH, and RI Wrap Up Primary Season: Though voters in three states are casting their ballots today, the most interesting contests are in the Granite State of New Hampshire. The Republican US Senate primary is the major focus, which is a battle between the Republican establishment and retired Army General Don Bolduc. The race does not involve former President Trump, as most of the competitive GOP primaries have, since he has not endorsed a candidate. GOP primaries in the state’s two congressional districts will also pave the way for competitive races in November. Both NH-1 and NH-2 have proven themselves as swing districts.
Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee (D) is on the ballot for the first time in his own right, striving to win a full term as the state’s chief executive after ascending to the position when then-incumbent Gina Raimondo (D) was appointed US Commerce Secretary. Rhode Island Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea appears to be Mr. McKee’s strongest primary opponent. Tonight’s Democratic winner will become the prohibitive favorite in the general election. The open 2nd Congressional District features a Democratic primary battle that state Treasurer Seth Magaziner is expected to win. Republican Allan Fung, the two-time gubernatorial nominee and ex-Cranston Mayor, is unopposed on the Republican side. Though the 2nd District is heavily Democratic, polling shows an unusually competitive general election battle brewing on the political horizon. Ohio: Senate Race Flip-Flopping: After most polling had given author J.D. Vance (R) a small lead in the Senate race, Suffolk University’s new survey (9/5-7; 500 likely general election voters; live interview) finds US Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Warren/Youngstown) claiming a slim one-point, 47-46%, advantage. Additionally, the Democratic firm, Impact Research, also went into the field (8/17-23; 800 OH likely general election voters) finds Rep. Ryan holding a slightly larger 50-47% margin. This race continues to seesaw between the two candidates.
New York: Becoming Closer: A new survey, this one from the Republican survey research firm co/efficient, confirms an earlier poll that Gov. Kathy Hochul’s (D) lead over US Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley/East Long Island) is down to single digits. The co/efficient survey (9/5-7; 1,194 NY likely general election voters; live interview & text) posts the Governor to only a 49-43% lead. Last week, the Trafalgar Group released their poll (8/31-9/1; 1,091 NY likely general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) that gave the Governor a similar 48-43% edge. In between, however, Emerson College (9/4-6; 1,000 NY likely general election voters; online, text & interactive voice response system) produced a 50-35% ballot test in Gov. Hochul’s favor.
Arizona: Two Tight Polls: In the 2020 special US Senate election, then-candidate Mark Kelly (D) consistently ran ahead of then-Sen. Martha McSally (R) and by an average of 7.1 percentage points in 21 polls conducted from October 1st to election day, but only won the race, 51-49%. In the 2020 cycle, we see much closer polling as two new surveys exemplify.
The pair of studies, both taken during the September 6-7 period, are from Emerson College (627 AZ likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) and the Republican research firm Insider Advantage (550 AZ likely voters). Emerson finds the race well within the polling margin of error at 47-45%, while the IA result projects a 45-39% division. Both post Sen. Kelly leading Republican nominee and venture capitalist Blake Masters. Utah: Another Independent Faring Well: Utah Independent US Senate candidate Evan McMullin released a Democratic firm’s poll that yields him a one-point edge. Impact Research (8/29-9/1; 800 UT likely general election voters) found McMullin leading Sen. Mike Lee (R) by a 47-46% margin. Sen. Lee quickly countered with re-releasing his early August WPA Intelligence poll that saw him holding a major 50-32% advantage. Expect the Lee campaign to soon release more recent data. AK-AL: More Ranked Choice Analysis: The Fair Vote organization, which is the principal promoter of the Ranked Choice Voting system, released a further analysis of the RCV vote in the Alaska special election that elected Democrat Mary Peltola even though she attracted only 40% of the actual vote. The Ranked Choice advocates claim the system rewards the candidate who has the broadest support, but it tends to do the opposite since candidates with minority support have won most of the major races where the system has been used.
The analysis suggests that had candidate Nick Begich III been opposite Ms. Peltola in the final round instead of former Governor and Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin, he would have won the race. The Fair Vote analysis reveals that 59% of the Palin vote would have gone Begich’s way as opposed to the latter woman gaining only 50.3% of the Begich second choice votes. The bigger difference, however, was Ms. Peltola attracting only 6% of the Palin second choice votes as compared to the 28% she received from Begich voters. What the analysis fails to include, however, are the more than 11,000 Begich voters whose ballots were not counted in the second round. The analysis claims those people simply didn’t make an additional ranked choice, but in reality, it may be due to a lack of understanding the confusing system. In other places, attorneys who have challenged the system report that most ballots are disqualified because the voter inaccurately completed the ballot. Since Ms. Palin lost by 5,219 votes, more than 11,000 non-counted Begich ballots could have made the difference, and it is likely that a large number of these had their ballots disqualified as opposed to not making a choice. Therefore, the Fair Vote conclusion that Ms. Palin lost because the Begich voters eschewed her may not be entirely accurate. Arizona: Evolving Dead Heat Race: The aforementioned pair of Arizona polls from Emerson College and Insider Advantage (see Arizona Senate race above) forecasts an even closer race for Governor than they do for US Senate. Emerson College projects a straight tie between Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (D) and former Phoenix news anchor Kari Lake (R), with both candidates posting 46% support scores. Insider Advantage finds a similar result with Ms. Hobbs leading by the slightest of margins, 44-43%.
Michigan: High Court Reverses Board of Elections: At literally the last minute to make a ballot-related decision, the Michigan state Supreme Court over-ruled the State Board of Elections that previously disqualified an abortion rights ballot proposition and one dealing with the elections code. The BoE struck both because they did not meet technical requirements. Both initiatives are believed to be key Democratic assets to spur the party’s base turnout.
Chicago: US Rep. Garcia Edging toward Mayor’s Race: The Chicago Mayor’s race, featuring a likely competitive race with controversial incumbent Lori Lightfoot (D), is scheduled for a first vote on February 28th of next year. Therefore, not much time exists between the regular general election and the new Windy City contest. Yesterday, Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D-Chicago), after originally saying he would not enter the Mayor’s race, now says the chances of him doing so are “50-50.” Mr. Garcia was elected to the House in 2018, after serving on the Chicago City Council, the Illinois Senate, and the Cook County Commission. He ran for Mayor in 2015 but lost to then-Mayor Rahm Emanuel (D). The mayoral candidate filing deadline is November 28th. South Carolina: Closer Poll Released: Democratic polling firm Impact Research (8/24-30; 700 SC likely general election voters) released a survey that finds former US Congressman Joe Cunningham (D) has closed Gov. Henry McMaster’s (R) lead to 49-42%. The McMaster margin is still beyond the polling margin of error, however.
Actually, the Impact Research survey is close to the Republican firm’s results, The Trafalgar Group, that conducted their survey within the same time realm (8/25-28; 1,071 SC likely general election voters; multiple sampling techniques). Trafalgar produced a McMaster lead of 51-43%. South Carolina voter history suggests that Gov. McMaster will win re-election by ten points or slightly more. OR-6: Counter Poll Released: Yesterday, we reported on an Oregon Clout Research poll (8/14-19; 409 OR-6 likely general election voters; live interview) that finds Republican Mike Erickson posting a large 43-34% lead over state Rep. Andrea Salinas (D-Lake Oswego) in the open new 6th District, which is the new seat Oregon earned in national reapportionment.
Predictably, the Democrats quickly countered with their own survey, but this data is even older than the Clout poll. During the August 10-14 period, GBAO Research conducted a live interview survey of 500 OR-6 likely voters. They, however, only posted Ms. Salinas to a rather unimpressive 48-45% count. The region’s Democratic vote history - the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat D+7 - would suggest a bigger margin. This is likely why the Democrats did not release this poll until they needed to respond. |
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