Rep. Luke Messer (R-Greensburg/Muncie) has not officially announced his Senate candidacy, but he’s all but a formal candidate. Weeks ago, responding to Rep. Todd Rokita’s (R-Brownsburg/Lafayette) Senate candidacy, Rep. Messer tweeted that he is “in” the race, which may in retrospect prove to be his announcement. Yesterday, Mr. Messer received a key Senate endorsement: from fellow Rep. Susan Brooks (R-Carmel) who represents the adjacent district. Reps. Messer and Rokita are the headliners in the ensuing Republican primary with the winner drawing first-term Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) in the general election.
--Jim Ellis Yesterday, we reported upon four different statewide Virginia pollsters releasing numbers pertaining to the open 2017 Governor’s race. Now, one of those entities, the Princeton Survey Research Associates, International in partnership with the University of Mary Washington (9/5-12; 1,000 VA adults; 867 VA registered voters; 562 VA likely voters) made public their Senate results. If Prince William County Board chairman Corey Stewart (R) were to advance to the general election to face Sen. Tim Kaine (D), the former would trail the incumbent by a 54-39% clip. The Senator scores similarly against Reps. Scott Taylor (R-Virginia Beach) and Dave Brat (R-Glen Allen) but neither of them appear inclined to enter the statewide campaign.
--Jim Ellis Calling Sen. Joe Manchin (D) President Trump’s top liaison to the Democrats, new Republican Gov. Jim Justice made it clear that he is supporting West Virginia’s incumbent Senator irrespective of party registration. Mr. Justice was elected Governor in November on the Democratic ticket, but switched to the GOP at a recent rally featuring President Trump. Messrs. Justice and Manchin have been close for years, so the fact that the Governor would continue backing the second-term Senator hardly comes as a surprise. Attorney General Patrick Morrisey and Rep. Evan Jenkins (R-Huntington) are competing for the Republican Senatorial nomination.
--Jim Ellis Freshman Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-Henderson), already leaving the House to take a run at Sen. Dean Heller (R) next year, leaves a void in her politically marginal Clark County 3rd District. Democrats appear to be coalescing around a candidate who they believe will be a strong contender to keep the seat. Wealthy former school board president Susie Lee has already drawn endorsements from ex-Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, Reps. Dina Titus (D-Las Vegas) and Ruben Kihuen (D-Las Vegas), along with the departing Rep. Rosen. The voting history here suggests this race will be a toss-up next year, but the Democratic power structure already jointly supporting one candidate is the soundest strategy for them to gain a general election advantage.
--Jim Ellis Former five-term Congressman Tom Tancredo (R-Littleton), who exited the House to twice run unsuccessfully for Governor and once for President, is eying a potential return to elective politics. Mr. Tancredo says the chances of him entering the 2018 Republican gubernatorial primary are now about 50/50, which is a greater number than before.
Arapahoe County regional prosecutor George Brauchler is the leading Republican candidate to date. Nine Democrats have announced their candidacies, including Lt. Gov. Donna Lynne and US Rep. Jared Polis (D-Boulder). The latter two contenders top the large intra-party field. This general election will likely be a toss-up affair with major redistricting overtones for the party that captures the Centennial State’s Governor’s mansion. Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. --Jim Ellis New Gov. Kay Ivey (R), who recently declared for a full term next year, just received her first polling report and its results are very favorable. The Tarrance Group survey (8/28-30; 601 AL likely Republican primary voters) finds Gov. Ivey scoring an almost unanimous 80:5% job approval rating among the GOP sample respondents, and records a 66:11% ballot test against Huntsville Mayor Tommy Battle, an announced gubernatorial candidate who appears intent on staying in the race even though he is now facing an incumbent. Interestingly, the two statewide officials likely to be her principal opponents: state Agriculture Commissioner John McMillan and Alabama Auditor Jim Zeigler were not tested in this poll. Beginning her first race for a full term as the state’s chief executive, Gov. Ivey starts in the strongest of positions.
--Jim Ellis Three-term US Rep. George Holding (R-Raleigh) is likely to get a Democratic challenge from a former state Representative. Yesterday, ex-state Rep. Linda Coleman (D), who lost her seat to a Republican in 2012, decided to re-enter elective politics with an attempt against a formidable GOP incumbent.
The 2nd District, which was newly created in the court ordered redistricting directive shortly before the 2016 North Carolina primary, is a reliable Republican CD. President Trump carried the seat with just about a ten-percentage point spread, or six full points better than his statewide victory margin. The new draw originally paired Rep. Holding with former Rep. Renee Ellmers (R-Dunn) in a GOP primary battle that the Congressman won decisively, and before he would record 57% in the general election. As such, Mr. Holding begins this re-election drive as a solid favorite. --Jim Ellis A new potential Republican candidate could be soon coming forward if the latest WPA Intelligence survey (9/10-11; 406 ND likely voters) is a precursor to an announcement. State Treasurer Kelly Schmidt (R), an individual not previously mentioned as a potential candidate, actually leads first-term incumbent Heidi Heitkamp (D), 48-44%, according to the WPA data. State Sen. Tom Campbell (R-Grafton/Grand Forks) is a declared candidate, but was not tested in this poll. At-large US Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-Bismarck) is still a potential candidate but has taken no discernible action to form a Senate campaign. This is the first poll of any kind this year to show Sen. Heitkamp trailing.
--Jim Ellis A New JMC Analytics & Polling survey (9/16-17; 500 AL GOP run-off likely voters based upon previous primary participation; automated system) shows appointed Sen. Luther Strange doing a bit better before next Tuesday’s special Senate Republican run-off, but still trailing beyond the polling margin of error. The results find former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore leading the interim incumbent, 47-39%.
The evangelical Christian segment is still critical to the final outcome. Among the religious segment, which dominates the polling sample at 66% of the overall total, Moore leads 57-36%. For non-evangelicals, the spread is almost exactly reversed: Strange, 56-34%. The Senator’s only path to victory next week appears to be drawing a huge non-evangelical turnout. President Trump will be appearing in Huntsville this weekend to campaign for Strange. Whether this will have any affect on the final outcome remains to be seen. --Jim Ellis Former three-term US Rep. Michael Grimm (R-Staten Island), who was forced to resign from office when he was convicted for tax fraud and would later spend seven months in federal prison, appears likely to officially announce a primary challenge to his successor, Rep. Dan Donovan (R-Staten Island), in early October. The former Congressman is accusing Mr. Donovan of drifting away from the conservative wing of the party as his reason for wanting to re-enter elective politics.
--Jim Ellis |
The Rundown BlogLearn more about the candidates running in key elections across the United States. Archives
May 2024
Categories
All
|
|
BIPAC© 2022 BIPAC. All rights reserved
|