A New JMC Analytics & Polling survey (9/16-17; 500 AL GOP run-off likely voters based upon previous primary participation; automated system) shows appointed Sen. Luther Strange doing a bit better before next Tuesday’s special Senate Republican run-off, but still trailing beyond the polling margin of error. The results find former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore leading the interim incumbent, 47-39%.
The evangelical Christian segment is still critical to the final outcome. Among the religious segment, which dominates the polling sample at 66% of the overall total, Moore leads 57-36%. For non-evangelicals, the spread is almost exactly reversed: Strange, 56-34%. The Senator’s only path to victory next week appears to be drawing a huge non-evangelical turnout. President Trump will be appearing in Huntsville this weekend to campaign for Strange. Whether this will have any affect on the final outcome remains to be seen.
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