Alabama: Strange Crawling Back

A New JMC Analytics & Polling survey (9/16-17; 500 AL GOP run-off likely voters based upon previous primary participation; automated system) shows appointed Sen. Luther Strange doing a bit better before next Tuesday’s special Senate Republican run-off, but still trailing beyond the polling margin of error.   The results find former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore leading the interim incumbent, 47-39%. 
 
The evangelical Christian segment is still critical to the final outcome.  Among the religious segment, which dominates the polling sample at 66% of the overall total, Moore leads 57-36%.  For non-evangelicals, the spread is almost exactly reversed: Strange, 56-34%.  The Senator’s only path to victory next week appears to be drawing a huge non-evangelical turnout.  President Trump will be appearing in Huntsville this weekend to campaign for Strange.  Whether this will have any affect on the final outcome remains to be seen.

--Jim Ellis