State Sen. Jeff Danielson (D-Cedar Falls) had earlier filed a congressional exploratory committee. Late last week, the state legislator announced that he will not become a congressional candidate. This leaves the Democrats with two strong candidates: state Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D-Dubuque) and former US Labor Department official Thomas Heckroth (D) as serious Democratic contenders with Bernie Sanders campaign activist Courtney Rowe (D) also in the race. The winner faces two-term Rep. Rod Blum (D-Dubuque) who represents the most Democratic seat in Iowa.
--Jim Ellis Freshman Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Pensacola) had been considered a potential candidate for the open Attorney General’s post, but apparently will seek a second term in the House. This weekend, Rep. Gaetz endorsed Judge Ashley Moore (R) for the statewide position, obviously indicating that he will not run himself.
--Jim Ellis Cambridge City Councilman Nadeem Mazen (D) announced that he will join the individuals in the open seat Democratic field attempting to succeed retiring Rep. Niki Tsongas (D-Lowell). Mr. Mazen was openly considering challenging Rep. Mike Capuano (D-Somerville) in the 7th District Democratic primary but is now changing course. None of Cambridge is included the 3rd District, so Mazen has no constituency in that particular CD. Four other Democrats are already in the race, including Dan Koh, the former chief of staff to Boston Mayor Marty Walsh (D), and state Sen. Barbara L’Italien (D-Andover). Republican businessman Rick Green is the lone member of his party to declare his congressional candidacy. Democrats are favored to hold the seat.
--Jim Ellis The new Fox News poll for the Garden State Governor’s race (Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R); 9/17-19; 804 NJ registered voters) finds Republican Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno closing the gap between she and former US Ambassador to Germany Phil Murphy (D), but the separation margin is still very significant. According to the new results, Mr. Murphy’s lead is 42-29%. By a margin of 62-37%, the respondents believe the state is on the wrong track, and site taxes as the number one issue of concern (34%). Ms. Guadagno is concentrating all of her negative ads on Murphy’s statements indicating that he will raise taxes. The election is scheduled for November 7th. Incumbent Gov. Chris Christie (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.
--Jim Ellis State House Majority Leader Bill Frick (D-Bethesda), who had announced his candidacy for the open 6th Congressional District (Rep. John Delaney (D-Potomac) retiring to prepare a presidential campaign), has now reversed his political course. Yesterday, Mr. Frick withdrew from the congressional race and will instead enter the open race for Montgomery County Executive. Remaining in the Democratic primary congressional race are five announced candidates, including Total Wine, Inc. founder David Trone, state Sen. Roger Manno (D-Montgomery County), and state Delegate Aruna Miller (D-Montgomery County). Democrats are favored to hold the seat in the 2018 general election.
--Jim Ellis Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio) has been under pressure from major Democratic Party leaders, such as national chairman Tom Perez, to challenge Gov. Greg Abbott (R) next year. But, such won’t happen. Yesterday, Rep. Castro declared that he will seek a fourth term in the House, thus bypassing what would have almost assuredly been a losing gubernatorial campaign.
--Jim Ellis The Market Resource Group (9/13-18; 600 MI likely voters) conducted a survey for the hypothetical Senate contest between three-term incumbent Debbie Stabenow (D) and rock star Robert Ritchie, better known as “Kid Rock.” This is the first poll that identifies Ritchie as Kid Rock, and the results are telling. In earlier polling, the ballot test was rather close, but this latest survey finds a Stabenow-Kid Rock contest breaking 52-34% in the incumbent’s favor. Since Robert Ritchie is an unknown political name, the previous tests should be categorized as testing an incumbent against a placebo candidate. Since the Ritchie name was stronger against Sen. Stabenow than the better-known Kid Rock moniker, the combined results give us a hint to a degree of Stabenow vulnerability. The previous polling margins falling into single-digit range indicates that voters are willing to consider an alternative to the incumbent, but not apparently not Ritchie when respondents understand that he and “Kid Rock” are the same person.
--Jim Ellis A debate format experiment was tried in the special Alabama Senate Republican run-off forum on Wednesday night. The two candidates, appointed incumbent Luther Strange and former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore, agreed to hold a debate without a moderator. In lieu of a reporter asking questions, the candidates were given alternating five-minute segments to state their positions and engage the opponent. Reviews will be forthcoming.
--Jim Ellis A day after three-term US Rep. George Holding (R-Raleigh) learned that ex-state Rep. Linda Coleman (D) is officially becoming a candidate against him, another Democrat joined the race. Former software company CEO Ken Romley announced that he will challenge Ms. Coleman for the Democratic nomination, with the primary winner drawing Rep. Holding in the general election. In a reliably Republican seat, Mr. Holding begins this re-election drive as the clear favorite.
--Jim Ellis Democrat Erin Cole, a former State Department official, yesterday ended her congressional challenge campaign against Rep. Chris Collins (R-Clarence) citing fundraising and organizing difficulties. The 27th CD is the most reliably Republican district in the state. At this point, no other Democrat has declared for the seat but much time remains for the party to slate another contender. The federal candidate filing deadline will be scheduled for a date next April with the statewide primary in June. Rep. Collins, originally elected in 2012, is a heavy favorite to win a fourth term next year.
--Jim Ellis |
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