The 2021 Buffalo Mayor’s race has so far been peculiar as the four-term Mayor, Byron Brown, lost the Democratic primary to self-described socialist India Walton, and returns for the general election as a write-in candidate. Last week we covered a poll suggesting that Mayor Brown now leads Ms. Walton, 50-40%.
Another odd turn occurred this week when it became known that Ms. Walton had been previously arrested for threatening a colleague at the hospital in which they worked. Both she and the accuser are nurses. It was proven that Ms. Walton threatened bodily harm over a three-month period in 2014 and was charged with harassment, but the candidate says she was not serious and shouldn’t have been feared. Ms. Walton pointed to the fact that she is 4’11” tall and was on disability as a result of surgery during the particular time period in question. This bizarre campaign will conclude on November 2nd. Former University of Georgia and NFL football star Herschel Walker is testing very strongly in a Peach State Republican US Senate survey according to the Fabrizio Lee firm polling for ex-President Donald Trump’s Save America PAC. The study (8/11-12; 500 GA likely Republican primary voters; live interview) records Mr. Walker with a huge 54-5% lead over state Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black in a hypothetical Republican primary. Told that former President Trump supports Mr. Walker, the margin increases to a whopping 67-4%.
Mr. Walker has not yet entered the race; Commissioner Black is an announced Senate candidate. The survey sample includes 375 self-identified Republicans and 100 Independents who say they will vote in the 2022 Republican primary. Just over 64% of the respondents live in the Atlanta metropolitan area. The sampling universe splits evenly between men and women. Susquehanna Polling & Research tested the Florida electorate (8/4-10; 700 FL registered voters; live interview) about the impending 2022 Governor’s race. The results find Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) leading Rep. Charlie Crist (D-St. Petersburg) 46-43%. He fares better against Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried (D), topping her 50-40%. Mr. DeSantis’ favorability ratio is 52:43% positive to negative, which the pollsters said is a good rating considering the negative publicity the state and Governor have been receiving about the COVID Delta variant spike.
The Fabrizio Lee firm, as described in the Senate piece above, surveyed the Georgia Republican electorate and tested former Senator David Perdue in a GOP primary battle against Gov. Brian Kemp. The results show a close race. Gov. Kemp, who scores only a 69:27% favorability rating among the Republican primary voters questioned, would lead announced candidate Vernon Jones, a former Democratic county executive and state legislator, and Mr. Perdue, 41-19-16%, respectively. Isolating Gov. Kemp and Mr. Perdue, the margin decreases to 46-40% in favor of the Governor.
Informed that former President Trump supports Mr. Perdue, the gubernatorial primary ballot test shifts to a 41-26-13% Perdue-Kemp-Jones prospective finish. These numbers suggest that Gov. Kemp has not yet broken free of his post-election unpopularity in relation to his handling of the Georgia voter fraud allegations. Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) has not yet replaced outgoing Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D), but we already see the first 2020 Democratic gubernatorial primary poll. The co/efficient organization tested Ms. Hochul against Attorney General Letitia James and NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio. The survey (8/15-16; 814 NY likely Democratic primary voters; interactive voice response system and text) found Ms. Hochul leading the pair, 28-24-5%, respectively. If the lone challenger were Attorney General James, Ms. Hochul would only hold a 34-32% edge. Surprisingly, this Democratic sample still has a relatively high opinion of resigning Gov. Cuomo. His favorability index is 39:40% favorable to unfavorable.
Not surprisingly, we see another set of Florida polls that provide very different results of the Sunshine State electorate in a similar time frame. Susquehanna Polling & Research went into the field first (8/4-10; 700 FL registered voters; live interview) and found Sen. Marco Rubio (R) establishing a healthy 50-39% lead over US Rep. Val Demings (D-Orlando), who is on her way to becoming the Democrats’ consensus candidate.
Conversely, St. Pete Polls (8/16-17; 2,068 FL registered voters; online) finds a much closer result: Rubio leading 48-46%. Florida tends to be a difficult place to poll, and often we see Republican candidates performing two-plus points better in the actual election than their polling numbers project. Thomas McDermott (D), who has been the city of Hammond’s Mayor since 2004, announced that he will enter the statewide Democratic primary in hopes of challenging first-term Sen. Todd Young (R) next year. Mr. McDermott ran for the open 1st Congressional District seat in 2020, losing a four-point Democratic primary race to the district’s eventual winner, freshman Rep. Frank Mrvan (D-Highland). Mr. McDermott is a decided underdog against Sen. Young should he ultimately come through the Democratic primary.
At this point, Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Warren/Youngstown), a former Democratic presidential candidate, so far has had the open statewide Democratic primary to himself. He is now joined by former congressional candidate and ex-Consumer Financial Protection Bureau official Morgan Harper. She challenged Rep. Joyce Beatty (D-Columbus) in the 2020 Democratic primary but fared poorly. Ms. Beatty defeated her by a landslide 68-32% margin. Rep. Ryan remains the clear favorite for the Democratic nomination but would be an underdog in the general election against the eventual Republican nominee.
Yesterday, Office of Management & Budget chief of staff Nikki Budzinski (D) announced she is returning to Illinois with the goal of challenging five-term Rep. Rodney Davis (R-Taylorville). Illinois’ 13th District could be in the mix for elimination as the state loses a congressional seat. The district sits in the middle of the Downstate region, which is the area losing the most population. Redistricting will be the major factor in likely deciding who runs in which district.
Monmouth University released their new poll of the Garden State electorate, and the results show little change from what we have seen in the past relating to the 2021 Governor’s race. According to the poll (8/11-16; 810 NJ registered voters; live interview), Gov. Phil Murphy (D) continues to lead former state Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli (R) by a 52-36% margin.
Under the most optimistic turnout model for the Republicans, Ciattarelli trails 51-40%. The most Democratic participation projection finds Gov. Murphy expanding his margin to 55-36%. The two most important issues according to the Monmouth polling sample respondents are COVID and property taxes. |
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