A Cygnal firm survey conducted for the Alabama Daily News (8/17-18; 600 AL likely Republican primary voters; live interview, interactive voice response system, and text) finds Gov. Kay Ivey easily leading the Republican primary but is well below the 50% plateau in support. The ballot test breaks 42-9-4-3% over state Auditor Jim Zeigler, 2010 gubernatorial contender Tim James, who is not currently a candidate, and pastor Dean Odle.
Mr. Zeigler is laying the groundwork for his own primary challenge to the Governor but surprisingly would welcome former US Ambassador to Slovenia Lynda Blanchard into the race if she chose to leave the Senate campaign and enter the Governor’s campaign. Mr. Zeigler says of Ms. Blanchard that “her millions [of dollars]” would go a long way toward creating a negative image of Gov. Ivey. Mr. Zeigler also called upon Mr. James to enter the race. He says these candidates could reach people he cannot and indicated that having a crowded field would enhance the prospects of the Governor being forced into a runoff election. More talk is circulating in the Texas political media about possible challenges to Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R), both of whom are on the ballot next year in stand-alone races. The Longview News-Journal is reporting that former state House Speaker Joe Strauss (R-San Antonio), a political moderate who was kept in power with Democratic votes, may be considering a run for Governor. It might be, however, as an Independent or minor party candidate knowing that Gov. Abbott already has two GOP primary opponents, and that he (Strauss) probably could not win a statewide Republican primary considering the partisan electorate’s strong conservative base.
State Sen. Lyle Larson (R-San Antonio), who Gov. Abbott mockingly refers to as “Liberal Lyle,” may join with Strauss to form a Governor-Lt. Governor ticket as a minor party entry. It’s unclear how much of this speculation will come to fruition. For now, Mr. Abbott’s Republican primary opponents are former state Sen. Don Huffines and ex-Republican Party of Texas chairman and former Florida Congressman Allen West. There is no strong Democratic candidate at this point in time. Former US Representative and ex-presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke and actor Matthew McConaughey are discussed as possible Democratic candidates. The Listener Group’s Political Matrix Poll released their new survey over the weekend (released 8/22; 1,000 FL likely voters; interactive voice response system) and much of the data appears curious to say the least. In the Senate race, two-term incumbent Marco Rubio (R) holds a 55-45% advantage over Rep. Val Demings (D-Orlando). While that spread seems reasonable, the difficulty comes in the crosstab report. The partisan tabs show Sen. Rubio receiving 52% of the Democrats’ votes while 42% of Republicans prefer Rep. Demings. There is no corroborating reason to support such numbers, meaning this poll could well be considered an outlier.
Two days ago, we wrote that the San Joaquin Valley Sun political blog reported that five-term California Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D-Bakersfield) was preparing to join the crowded field hoping to oppose Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) next year. We didn’t have to wait long. Yesterday, Mr. Salas announced his political plans, and he will enter the 2022 congressional campaign field.
To review, former state Assemblywoman Nicole Parra (D), Delano Mayor Brian Osorio (D), former congressional aide Angel Lara (D), and ex-Fresno City Councilman Chris Mathys (R) are all announced and running. Mr. Valadao ousted Rep. T.J. Cox (D) in 2020 after the latter man unseated the former in 2018. It appears unlikely that Mr. Cox will seek a re-match. A common survey question asks respondents if they will vote for a Democrat or a Republican for the US House in the coming election. Often, the answers are not consistent with the final congressional result. Now, we see erratic responses spanning across the spectrum within the same polling time sphere.
Echelon Insights (8/13-18 1,016 US registered voters; online from web panel) finds the Democrats holding a strong 50-40% advantage. Simultaneously, however, Susquehanna Polling & Research (8/12-18; 800 US likely voters; live interview) sees the Republicans holding a 39-38% edge. NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies; 1000 US adults; 790 US registered voters; live interview) reveals that 47% prefer Democrats to control the House after the next election, while 46% say they have a Republican preference. As shown in the Florida Senate section above, the Listener Group’s Political Matrix Poll announced their new survey results (released 8/22; 1,000 FL likely voters; interactive voice response system) and questions abound. In the Governor’s race, the Listener data gives US Rep. Charlie Crist (D-St. Petersburg) a whopping 57-43% lead over Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), while Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried (D) maintains a 53-47% advantage. No other poll has produced such negative DeSantis margins.
The partisan segmented responses for the Governor’s race are more in line with other polling than their Senate query, but the sample selection does not accurately portray the Florida electorate’s persuasion division. This could be leading the results along an unreliable track. According to the July 31st Florida voter registration support from the Secretary of State’s office, Democrats have a partisan registration percentage of 36.0; Republicans’ 35.7; and Unaffiliateds’ 26.5. The Listener Group survey sample contained 45% Democrats, 43.8% Republicans, and 11.2% Unaffiliateds, quite different than the actual partisan share, and particularly so in the latter category. Retired Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R) has already pulled to within one percentage point of Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) according to a firm that regularly polls the Michigan electorate. EPIC-MRA, who frequently releases Wolverine State data published their most recent poll (9/9-15; 600 MI likely voters) and found Gov. Whitmer leading Mr. Craig by just a 45-44% clip. The numbers are even more encouraging for the GOP challenger when seeing that only 48% of those surveyed said they are familiar with Mr. Craig.
California Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) was first elected to the House in 2012, lost a tight election to Democrat T.J. Cox in 2018, but rebounded to win again last November. While it doesn’t appear probable that Mr. Cox will run again, several Democrats have indicated they will challenge the GOP Congressman in one of the strongest Democratic seats in the country that elects a Republican to the House.
The San Joaquin Valley Sun, a conservative political blog, is reporting that five-term state Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D-Bakersfield) is preparing to enter the congressional race. Currently announced opponents to Rep. Valadao for the jungle primary are former state Assemblywoman Nicole Parra (D), Delano Mayor Brian Osorio (D), former congressional aide Angel Lara (D), and ex-Fresno City Councilman Chris Mathys (R). Under the updated California term limits law, Mr. Salas still could run for one final term in the Assembly. State Sen. Trey Stewart (R-Presque Isle), the youngest member of the Maine legislature at 27 years of age and serving his first term in the Senate after entering the state House when he was 23, has ended his 2022 congressional run and endorsed former US Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R). Mr. Poliquin was elected in 2014 but lost his seat in 2018 due to Ranked Choice Voting after he scored a plurality victory on election night. He announced his new campaign last week.
In addition to his service in the legislature, Sen. Stewart is a former staff member for Mr. Poliquin. It is now likely that the ex-Congressman becomes a consensus Republican candidate, thus setting the stage for a re-match with the man who ousted him three years ago, Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston). ME-2 is one of seven districts that former President Trump carried (52-45%) and elected a Democrat to the House. Survey ballot tests have brandished tight results in this open seat Virginia race since former Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) and hedge fund former CEO Glenn Youngkin (R) each won their respective party nominations. Now, we see two new university polls, one of which is saddled with reliability questions, coming to the political forefront.
Virginia Commonwealth University (8/4-15; 823 VA adults; 770 VA registered voters; live interview) forecasts only a 40-37% lead for Mr. McAuliffe, consistent with most other public polls but with a much lower firmly decided sample cell. Roanoke University (8/3-17; 558 VA likely voters; live interview) had not been as accurate as most other pollsters in the past but developed an improved methodology during recent elections. With a long sampling period and relatively small sample size, this poll’s result, too, could prove unreliable when compared with the actual vote cast in November. Roanoke finds the McAuliffe advantage as to be 46-38%, the largest spread between the candidates of any poll released to date. |
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