National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) said in an interview with the Milwaukee Journal newspaper that he expects Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) to seek re-election and make an announcement in the Autumn. Sen. Johnson originally took a two-term pledge when he first ran in 2010 but did begin to hedge about keeping the commitment earlier in the year. He also made other statements suggesting that he would honor his pledge.
Eleven Democrats have already announced their Senate candidacies including Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes and state Treasurer Sarah Godlewski. US Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Green Bay) is the most likely Republican to run should the Senator decide to retire. Powerhouse New Jersey fundraising congressional sophomore Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) may have drawn her most credible challenger of the five Republicans who have so far declared their candidacies. Morris County Commissioner and former Chatham Mayor Tayfun Selen (R), a long-time immigrant from Turkey who promotes the American Dream, announced his congressional candidacy yesterday. Rosemary Becchi (R), who was the 2020 Republican nominee has not yet entered the race and now appears unlikely to do so.
Rep. Sherrill raised over $6.4 million to defend her seat in 2020. At the June 30th finance reporting deadline for this cycle, she had already over $4.1 million in her campaign account. Former Gov. Bill Walker (I), who did not seek re-election in 2018 because his approval ratings were low and polling showed he would lose with Democrat former US Senator Mark Begich in the candidate field, declared yesterday that he will return in the 2022 election because of the top-four primary election format. He also announced that former Alaska Labor Secretary Heidi Drygas (D) will join his ticket in the Lt. Governor slot. Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) is seeking re-election. Former state Rep. Les Gara is the only announced Democratic candidate, to date.
Law school officials at the University of California at Berkeley are beginning to question the constitutionality of the California recall system, meaning we could soon see a lawsuit filed. The purpose would be to prevent the replacement election winner from taking office should Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) lose the recall vote. The argument the law professors are beginning to make is the recall winner may garner less votes than Newsom even if the Governor loses the recall vote. Under California election law the subject of the recall is ineligible to run in the replacement election, which occurs as part of the recall format.
The legal argument does not question whether a Governor can be recalled, rather the succession process if the official is removed. The professors are arguing that such a vacancy should be filled by the sitting Lt. Governor and not the winner of a plurality replacement vote. It is likely we will be hearing much more about this legal question in the coming days. In the replacement race, former Congressman Doug Ose (R) suffered a heart attack over the weekend and has ended his campaign. His name, however, will still appear on the September 14th ballots that are now being mailed to voters throughout the state. Former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt (D), who lost the 2018 Governor’s race to then-County Commissioner Steve Sisolak (D), 49-45%, has reportedly filed a US Senate campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission. A formal announcement of candidacy is soon expected. Mr. Laxalt will be challenging first term Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (D).
Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy, who was looking to face his own recall election at one point last year, announced that he will run for re-election next year. It will be a different campaign than the state has ever seen, however. With voters adopting a top-four primary system, where a quartet of individuals regardless of political party preference advance into the general election, the Governor could face several different opponents next November. If no candidate reaches majority support, then the Ranked Choice Voting system takes effect, which is another new facet to the Alaska election system.
Former Gov. Bill Walker, who was elected as an Independent in 2014 but did not seek re-election in 2018 largely due to poor favorability ratings, said he is seriously considering making a comeback next year. With a competitive Senate race also appearing on the political horizon, Alaska voters are in for a long and very active political cycle. Businesswoman Vicky Cayetano (D), wife of former Gov. Ben Cayetano (D), announced that she will enter the open Governor’s race. Already in the Democratic primary are Lt. Gov. Josh Green and former Honolulu Mayor Kirk Caldwell. Mr. Cayetano served as Governor from 1994-2002, after eight years in office as the state’s Lt. Governor. Gov. David Ige (D) is ineligible to run for a third term. The eventual Democratic nominee is a lock to win the general election.
Deidre Dejear (D), another of the candidates who lost one office and is running for something higher, announced her candidacy for Governor over the weekend. Ms. Dejear was the Democratic nominee for Secretary of State in 2018, losing to incumbent Republican Paul Pate, 53-45%. Now, she hops into the Governor’s primary where state Rep. Ras Smith (D-Waterloo) appears as the only credible candidate.
Gov. Reynolds ascended to the Governorship when incumbent Terry Branstad (R) was appointed Ambassador to China in 2017. She then won election in her own right in 2018, and now will be on the ballot for her first re-election. Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) has not yet officially replaced outgoing Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D), but she already has a potential Democratic primary opponent. Former New York City Council President Christine Quinn (D), who lost the 2013 Mayor’s race to Bill de Blasio (D), says she is not ruling out entering the 2022 gubernatorial primary. Ms. Quinn is described as a “close ally” of Gov. Cuomo. The New York Governor’s race is now expected to draw major national attention in 2022.
Immediately after the Census Bureau released the national redistricting data late last week more the four months after the legal deadline, the Daily Kos Elections data team segmented the numbers individually into all 435 congressional districts. The average congressional district size is 761,952 individuals.
The state with the largest districts is Idaho with 919,553 residents per seat. The seats with the lowest per district totals are Montana, which gained a seat in reapportionment, at 542,113 individuals, and Rhode Island, which defied projections and did not lose their second district. The Ocean State seat districts will have 548,690 people. These states were on the cusp of being two-district states. They would either have the largest single districts in the country or the two smallest. The census formula awarded them each the two smallest. |
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