Similar to the above report on the most competitive Senate races, we also look at the resource counts from the June 30th reports for the four races featuring paired incumbents and four in special elections. Two pairings are in nomination mode, with the remaining two as inter-party general election pairings. All four special elections are in the general election mode. Again, the financial number listed is the cash-on-hand amount each candidate held at the June 30th reporting deadline.
August 2nd Primary:
MI-11: Rep. Haley Stevens (D): $1.8 million Rep. Andy Levin (D): $1.1 million August 23rd Primary: NY-12: Rep. Caroyln Maloney (D): $2.1 million Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D): $1.2 million November 8th General Election FL-2: Rep. Neil Dunn (R): $763,000 Rep. Al Lawson (D): $412,000 TX-34: Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D): $1.4 million Rep. Mayra Flores (R): $114,000 Specials August 9th Special General: MN-1: Jeff Ettinger (D): $548,000 Brad Finstad (R): $334,000 August 16th Special General: AK-AL: Nick Begich, III (R): $708,000 Mary Peltola (D): $115,000 August 23rd Special General: NY-19: Marc Molinaro (R): $996,000 Pat Ryan (D)*: $576,000 *Note: Pat Ryan is also running in the contested Democratic primary for the 18th Congressional District nomination on the same day as the 19th CD’s special election NY-23: Joe Sempolinski (R): $173,000 Max Della Pia (D): $89,000 Source for $ figures: Daily Kos Elections Blog In the developing seesaw battle between Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and Republican retired professional football player Herschel Walker, a new joint Fabrizio Ward (R) and Impact Research poll for AARP (11/5-11; 1,197 GA likely general election voters with an over-sample of 500 voters aged 50 and older and a 147-person over-sample of black voters; live interview and text) projects the incumbent to be holding a 50-47% edge despite Gov. Brian Kemp (R) running ahead of Democrat Stacey Abrams, 52-45%, and Republicans leading on the generic congressional question, 48-45%.
The negative campaigning coming from both sides is taking a toll on candidate images. President Biden’s job approval is a woeful 34:65% positive to negative, Sen. Warnock rates a 47:47% ratio, while Gov. Kemp posts only a 50:45% score. On the clear upside down side of the scale, Ms. Abrams records a 46:50% rating, and Mr. Walker owns an even worse 41:49% tally. Though polling finds US Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Warren/Youngstown) and author J.D. Vance (R) in a neck-and-neck contest, one area that is anything but close is campaign fundraising. In the second quarter, Rep. Ryan outraised Mr. Vance by a whopping 9:1 ratio, meaning over $9 million raised to just over $1 million for the latter man. Perhaps more seriously, Mr. Vance is reporting only $630,000 cash-on-hand as compared to Rep. Ryan’s $3.6 million. Expect outside sources to become heavily involved in this race with the goal of helping Mr. Vance close the resource gap.
Emerson College ran a series of polls testing 500 registered voters in each of the three Democratic-held Las Vegas congressional districts over the July 7-10 period. While the Dem incumbents lead in all three, none even break the 42% plateau in support.
In the 1st District, Rep. Dina Titus’ (D) advantage over Republican Mark Robertson is only 41-37%. Third District incumbent Susie Lee holds just a 42-40% slight margin over Republican attorney April Becker. In the 4th CD that stretches from North Las Vegas to the state’s middle section, Rep. Steven Horsford’s (D) spread over insurance agency owner Sam Peters (R) is a similar 42-39%. The three seats were drawn as Lean Democratic seats, but it appears all could be in position to swing toward the Republicans in November. The Caspar Star Tribune newspaper sponsored a Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy study (7/7-11; 1,100 WY registered voters) that finds GOP attorney and congressional challenger Harriet Hageman, who former President Donald Trump endorses, posting a 52-30% lead over controversial incumbent Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wilson) in anticipation of the August 16th Republican primary, now less than a month away. This is the third consecutive released survey that finds Ms. Hageman holding a lead well into double digits. While Ms. Cheney has a huge lead in campaign resources and is making overt requests of Democratic voters to participate in the Republican primary, it is doubtful there is enough she can do to fully overcome the current trends.
Nevada has been the site of many close elections since the 2012 political cycle, and the new Emerson College poll looks to be furthering that trend. Their new Nevada study (7/7-10; 2,000 NV registered voters; interactive voice response system, online, and text) finds Sen. Cortez Masto (D) holding a tepid 44-41% lead over Republican former Attorney General Adam Laxalt.
The danger point from this survey is that Sen. Cortez Masto is only in the lower 40s, suggesting clear vulnerability because she is quite far from obtaining majority support. The Nevada race will be one of the keys to determining the next Senate majority. It is becoming a must-win for Republicans if they are to have any hope of claiming chamber control in the next Congress. For the better part of this year, Republican challenger Tiffany Smiley has been raising big money and running closer than expected to Sen. Patty Murray (D) in polling. A new Survey USA poll for KING-TV in Seattle sheds a different light on the race, which is closer to how the Washington electorate typically performs. The poll (7/6-10; 596 WA likely general election voters) finds Sen. Murray posting a 51-33% lead, clearly her best showing this year.
The Washington jungle primary is August 2nd, but it is clear that both Sen. Murry and Ms. Smiley will advance to the general election. The primary result will tell us much more than polls do, since live voters will cast real votes on a ballot that emulates what they will see in the general election. Yesterday, we reported that US Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-Westchester County) and former New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio (D) were reporting strong fundraising totals. Now, a new Data for Progress poll (7/7-10; 533 NY-10 likely Democratic primary voters; online) shows their resource allocation will have to increase even further.
According to the DfP survey, de Blasio ranks last among the tested candidates at 5%, while Rep. Jones is only slightly ahead of him with 7% support. The race leader, according to this data, is NYC Councilwoman Carlina Rivera, but even she only garners 17%. Close behind is state Assemblywoman Yuh-Line Niou (D-Manhattan). Though time remains before the August 23rd New York congressional primary, both Messrs. Jones and de Blasio look to have a very uphill climb to seriously compete for the Democratic nomination. The new district is heavily Democratic, so whoever wins the primary on August 23rd will claim the seat in the November election. A Target Smart survey (6/28-30; 704 AZ likely general election voters) of the Arizona electorate finds Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs opening a lead beyond the polling margin of error against both Republican candidates who are vying for their party’s nomination.
Paired with Kari Lake, the former news anchor who former President Donald Trump supports and the candidate Democratic Party leaders are hoping to help engineer as Ms. Hobbs’ November opponent, the Sec of State leads 47-38%. If University of Arizona Regent Karrin Taylor Robson were to win the Republican primary, the general election draws tighter. In this scenario, Ms. Hobbs would take a 44-39% advantage. The race will begin to crystallize after the August 2nd state primary. |
The Rundown BlogLearn more about the candidates running in key elections across the United States. Archives
May 2024
Categories
All
|
|
BIPAC© 2022 BIPAC. All rights reserved
|