Above, we saw a new Emerson College survey that found Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto and former Attorney General Adam Laxalt to be falling into a statistical tie. The Emerson poll (7/7-10; 2,000 NV registered voters; interactive voice response system, online, and text) gives Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak an almost identical 44-40% edge over Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo. Like in the Senate race, this low number for incumbent Sisolak suggests we are again headed for a very tight general election, a typical state of affairs in Nevada, but this time featuring a campaign with two vulnerable Democratic incumbents.
A Super PAC called Missouri First Action PAC, which the Daily Kos Elections site reports that Home Depot co-founder Bernie Marcus principally funds, is spending $820,000 on a closing media buy to defend former Governor Eric Greitens against the recent attacks that have displaced him from the polling lead.
The text of the first ad claims the attackers are doing so because “he’ll work for us and see President Trump’s America first agenda through.” The principal attacker, however, is Mr. Greitens ex-wife, Sheena Greitens, who details the physical abuse her son endured from his father. The open Missouri primary is August 2nd. Attorney General Eric Schmitt and US Rep. Vicky Hartzler (R-Harrisonville) are Mr. Greitens’ top GOP opponents. The seat is open because Republican Sen. Roy Blunt is retiring. US Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-Westchester County), who decided to seek re-election in a New York City seat about an hour’s drive from his Westchester County district after Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-Cold Spring) decided to run against him, is going to report a major resource advantage over former New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio (D). The two are disclosing similar quarterly fundraising totals, Jones’ $524,000 compared to de Blasio’s $510,000, but the Congressman’s cash-on-hand total of $2.8 million at the end of June dwarfs de Blasio’s $361,000.
The pair are part of a 13-person Democratic primary field for the new south Manhattan district that the court-ordered redistricting plan created. The August 23rd Democratic primary winner will likely claim the seat in November, but there is a potential interesting general election scenario developing. In addition to Rep. Jones and Mr. de Blasio, the field features state Assemblywomen Jo Anne Simon (D-Brooklyn) and Yuh-Line Niou (D-NYC), New York City Councilwoman Carlina Rivera, and former US Congresswoman and ex-NYC Comptroller Elizabeth Holtzman. Four of the 13 candidates, including Jones, de Blasio, Niou, and Rivera, are also competing for the Working Families Party ballot line. This means we could see a competitive general election if different candidates win the Democratic and WF lines. The Glengariff Group, a frequent Michigan political pollster, released their latest survey that pairs Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) with the leading GOP primary contenders. The poll, conducted for Detroit television station WDIV and the Detroit News (7/5-8; 600 MI likely general election voters; live interview) finds Gov. Whitmer comfortably ahead of the top three Republican candidates, but with margins indicating the November election could become competitive.
Against GOP polling leader Tudor Dixon, an online radio show host, Gov. Whitmer is staked to a 51-40% lead. Her advantage is similar against businessman Kevin Rinke and real estate broker Ryan Kelley, 52-40% over the former, and 50-41% against the latter. The Michigan GOP field was upended when early race leader, former Detroit Police Chief James Craig, was disqualified when he failed to produce the required number of valid petition signatures. With Whitmer in the low 50s in all scenarios, we can expect this race to close after the August 2nd primary when the GOP will choose a nominee. The typical Texas polling pattern usually projects relatively close general election pairings, and the Republican candidate generally winning by a greater percentage than the data predicts. It’s likely we’re seeing the same progression emerge in the 2022 Governor’s race. The latest YouGov/University of Houston poll (6/27-7/7; 1,169 TX registered voters; 1,006 TX likely general election voters; online) finds Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, seeking a third term, topping former US Rep. and 2020 presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke (D) by a 47-42% margin.
Since the Texas March 1st primary, nine gubernatorial polls have been released, with Abbott leading in each. His range roams from 42 to 56%, with O’Rourke placing between 37-44%. Expect Gov. Abbott to record a comfortable victory in November. Former Congressman Dan Lipinski (D) who was looking to potentially enter the 6th District general election as a “Centrist Independent” is unable to do so. Because Mr. Lipinski voted in the June 28th Democratic primary, he is ineligible to run as an Independent in the associated general election. The former Congressman indicated that he would instead turn his attention toward helping form a centrist organization to promote independent candidates.
The development certainly helps Democratic Rep. Sean Casten (D-Downers Grove) who just defeated Rep. Marie Newman (D-La Grange) in the district’s intra-party paired incumbents’ contest. Having Lipinski on the ballot could have resulted in enough Democratic votes straying to Lipinski, the former area incumbent who Newman defeated in the 2020 Democratic primary, to throw the general election to Republican Keith Pekau in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates only a D+6. The Remington Research Group, surveying for the Missouri Scout political blog (7/6-7; 460 MO-1 likely Democratic primary voters; interactive response system), released their new polling results that post freshman Missouri Rep. Cori Bush (D-St. Louis) to a tepid 40-20% lead over state Sen. Steve Roberts (D-St. Louis) with a whopping 32% undecided just weeks before the August 2nd primary election. In 2020, Ms. Bush, commonly referred to as a “Squad Member” in the House, defeated veteran Rep. Lacy Clay in the Democratic primary. This is a primary contest to watch in the election’s closing days.
As the Arizona Republican gubernatorial primary continues to evolve into a two-way race, the margin between the pair of candidates is growing slimmer. A new High Ground Public Affairs survey (7/2-7; 400 AZ likely Republican primary voters; live interview) sees former news anchor Kari Lake leading Arizona University Regent Karrin Taylor Robson by just a 39-35% margin.
Former President Trump, who supports Lake, has now scheduled an Arizona rally to build support for his candidate just prior to the August 2nd state primary. Last week, term-limited Gov. Doug Ducey (R) announced his endorsement of Ms. Robson, which helped begin the latter candidate’s late momentum charge. The eventual GOP nominee will likely face Secretary of State Katie Hobbs who is well ahead in polling on the Democratic side. After the petition signature debacle that caused Republicans to see their early gubernatorial campaign leader, former Detroit Police Chief James Craig, disqualified, a new Mitchell Research poll finds the GOP electorate coalescing around a new candidate. After flirting with businessman Kevin Rinke right after Craig’s exit, online radio host Tudor Dixon, who many believe would be the strongest contender from this present GOP field, has taken the primary lead as we approach the August 2nd election day.
The Mitchell poll (7/7-8; 683 MI likely Republican primary voters; interactive voice response system & text) finds Ms. Dixon posting 26% support, followed by real estate broker and Trump activist Ryan Kelley (15%), with Mr. Rinke and chiropractor Garrett Soldano close behind (13%). The eventual Republican nominee then challenges Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) in the general election. What was thought to be a competitive November contest, may yet become such. The Tarrance Group just released a statewide Missouri Senate poll that shows former Gov. Eric Greitens (R) is finally absorbing some political damage from his opponents attacks, his own controversial ads about hunting “RINOs” (Republicans In Name Only), and domestic and child abuse claims from his ex-wife.
The Tarrance survey (7/5-7; 600 MO likely Republican primary voters) now forecasts Attorney General Eric Schmitt with the primary lead at 28%, with US Rep. Vicky Hartzler (R-Harrisonville/Columbia) close behind at 24%. Mr. Greitens drops back to just 16% support with an upside down favorability index within the Republican sampling universe at 39:49% favorable to unfavorable. Former President Donald Trump announced that he has ruled out endorsing Rep. Hartzler, and is considering backing either Messrs. Schmitt or Greitens, though the latest developments suggest endorsing the latter man is becoming unlikely. |
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