State Education Superintendent Tony Evers (D) filed a gubernatorial campaign committee at the end of last week, but still maintains he has not yet made a final decision about whether to challenge Gov. Scott Walker (R). Mr. Evers was re-elected to a third term in 2017 to his statewide, non-partisan office, so he would not have to risk the position to run for Governor. Businessman Andy Gronik and state Sen. Kathleen Vinehout (D-Alma/Eau Claire) both have filed committees but also stop short of officially announcing their candidacies.
As we have seen in recent elections, campaign funding is not always a determinative predictor of election outcomes but it is often a good predictor of future political activity. The second quarter fundraising reports are coming into the public domain, and the Pennsylvania disclosures tell us a great deal about who may be challenging Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D), and who may not. Rep. Lou Barletta (R-Hazelton), who was talking about making a US Senate decision in July, now says he will do so before Labor Day. He had an active second quarter but only shows a little over $513,000 cash-on-hand. This is well below where a strong challenger must be opposite a two-term statewide incumbent.
On the other hand, Rep. Mike Kelly (R-Butler/Erie) has more than $1 million in the bank, as does businessman Jeff Bartos. Businessman Paul Addis has just over $100,000, while state Reps. Rick Saccone and Jim Christiana are lagging way behind with only $31,000 and $22,000, respectively. Though half of Mr. Bartos’ money is self-contributed, it still appears he may be the potential candidate with the most momentum and commitment to the race. Rep. Kelly is viewed as being only a long shot to actually enter the Senate race. All of the Republican numbers pale in comparison to Sen. Casey, however. The incumbent reports raising $9.3 million for the year to-date, with $5.6 million cash-on-hand. The OnMessage survey research firm conducted a statewide Republican primary survey (7/10-12; 400 IN GOP likely primary voters) and found a flat 23-23% tie between US Reps. Todd Rokita (R-Brownsburg/Lafayette) and Luke Messer (R-Greensburg/Muncie). Two other potential GOP candidates, Attorney General Curtis Hill and state Rep. Mike Braun (R-Jasper) register four and two percent, respectively. Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) will run for a second term, and awaits the eventual GOP for the general election.
Former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Flagstaff), who gave up her 1st District House seat to unsuccessfully challenge Sen. John McCain (R) last year, announced that she will enter the crowded Democratic primary for a chance to oppose two-term Rep. Martha McSally (R-Tucson) in the southeast Arizona congressional district. The move had been anticipated when Ms. Kirkpatrick re-located from Flagstaff to Tucson. Returning to the 1st District was not an option for her because fellow Democrat Tom O’Halleran (D-Sedona) succeeded her.
Ms. Kirkpatrick is no sure winner in the 2018 Democratic primary, however. Already in the race is 2016 nominee Matt Heinz, a former state Representative, ex-state Rep. Bruce Wheeler (D-Tucson), businessmen Billy Kovacs, Charlie Verdin, and Jeff Latas, former Assistant Army Secretary Mary Matiella, and retired Air Force Colonel Lou Jordan. For her part, Rep. McSally already has almost $1 million cash-on-hand. The Arizona primary is held in late August, so the eventual Democratic nominee will clearly start in a difficult position against Ms. McSally who romped to a 57-43% victory over Heinz last November overcoming Hillary Clinton carrying the 2nd District, 50-45%, over President Trump. It had been long speculated that Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Kailua) was considering a Democratic primary challenge to Sen. Mazie Hirono. Such talk had quelled, however, when Sen. Hirono announced that she is fighting kidney cancer but still plans to seek re-election. This weekend, Rep. Gabbard ended such conjecture by announcing her endorsement of Sen. Hirono for her second term re-election bid.
Facing an electorate where 71% believes New Jersey is on the “wrong track”, Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno (R) again finds a poll showing her in desperate straights for her November gubernatorial election battle with former US Ambassador and Wall Street executive Phil Murphy (D). According to the new NBC 4 News/Marist College survey (7/13-18; 895 NJ adults; 187 NJ registered voters), Murphy’s lead stands at 54-33% over Guadagno, which is consistent with other previous polls. Gov. Chris Christie (R) continues to be dogged with terrible approval ratings, now dropping to a 20:73% favorable to unfavorable personal rating. When Mr. Christie began seeking re-election to his second term, in 2013, this same polling firm found his personal favorability at 67:28%.
Appointed Lt. Gov. Kevin Bryant (R) is moving toward challenging Gov. Henry McMaster (R) in next year’s GOP statewide primary. Mr. Bryant, this week, formally launched a fundraising committee and will likely make a final decision about running sometime in August. Mr. McMaster, the elected Lt. Governor, ascended to the state’s top position when Gov. Nikki Haley (R) was appointed US Ambassador to the United Nations. Mr. Bryant was then chosen by the state legislature to replace McMaster. Former Lt. Gov. Yancey McGill (R) is already an announced candidate. Gov. McMaster is expected to seek a full term.
State Land Commissioner and former congressional candidate Aubrey Dunn (R) announced that he will enter the open 2nd Congressional District race next year. Incumbent Rep. Steve Pearce (R-Hobbs) announced his run for Governor last week, thus opening the congressional district for the 2018 election. Already in the GOP primary is state Rep. Yvette Herrell (R-Alamogordo). The district encompasses virtually the entire state south of the Albuquerque metropolitan area. The electorate votes generally Republican (Trump: 50-40%), but did elect a Democrat, Harry Teague, for one term the last time the district was open (2008).
It appears we will see a re-match in Michigan’s 7th CD next year. Former state Representative Gretchen Driskell (D), despite losing to Rep. Tim Walberg (R-Tipton/Jackson) by 15 percentage points, will return for another campaign. Mr. Walberg was first elected in 2006 after defeating then-Rep. Joe Schwarz (R) in the Republican primary. He lost the seat two years later, but regained it in 2010 and has held ever since. The 7th was re-drawn in 2011 to give the GOP Congressman more favorable territory.
Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R) has had the early Republican gubernatorial field mostly to himself this year, but that may soon change. State Treasurer Dan Schwartz is confirming that he will file a gubernatorial exploratory committee in August, with the expectation of kicking off an official campaign for Governor in September. Mr. Schwartz was elected Treasurer in 2014, scoring a 51-41% victory margin. He is eligible to seek re-election, but looks to be eschewing that opportunity for the gubernatorial run.
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