Three-term Rep. John Delaney (D-Potomac) has scheduled a special announcement for Saturday, but there is disagreement among sources as to what he will say. Some believe he will announce his campaign for Governor, while others close to the Congressman indicate he plans to retire from elective politics. Either way, it is now a virtual certainty that he will not be a candidate for re-election, thus opening the Montgomery County anchored 6th Congressional District for the coming election.
An independent political survey from the local Alabama Cygnal research firm (7/20-21; 500 AL likely Republican primary voters) reports a different race order than the one previously seen, but such is not surprising considering the intense campaigning currently underway. According to the Cygnal results, appointed Sen. Luther Strange has now taken the lead over former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore and US Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Huntsville). This, from a story credited to the Alabama news source, AL.com.
The poll, sponsored by several unnamed business associations, finds Sen. Strange obtaining 30% support within the Republican base voter segment followed by Judge Moore at 26%. Rep. Brooks is falling back, according to this small-sample response group, registering 16 percent. Though nine Republicans are competing in the August 15th special primary election, the race consistently appears to be among the three polling leaders. Strange’s media attacks on Brooks may be bearing fruit. The Congressman is dropping support from previously released polls, but data publication so far during this campaign has been sparse. If no candidate receives majority support in the mid-August vote, the top two finishers will advance to a September 26th run-off election. At this point, it appears as a virtual certainty that a secondary nomination vote will be necessary; hence, these three top candidates are fighting over two positions. Rep. Luke Messer (R-Greensburg/Muncie), who has been considered a sure Senate candidate, confirmed via Twitter yesterday that he will enter the statewide race. Mr. Messer has scheduled a formal announcement for the August 12th. To counter Messer’s tweet, another assumed candidate, Rep. Todd Rokita (R-Brownsburg/Lafayette), released the results of his GS Strategy Group poll (7/16-18; 500 IN likely Republican primary voters) that shows Messer trailing the former, 21-14-11%, with support for “others” covered by the last number. If the two Congressmen were the only candidates, Rep. Rokita would lead Mr. Messer, 28-20%.
Though it appears most of the Nevada political establishment is following former Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid’s lead and announcing support for Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-Henderson) in the 2018 Senate race, Las Vegas Rep. Dina Titus stated yesterday that she is still considering entering the statewide Democratic primary. She has tangled with the “Reid machine” before, beating their endorsed candidate for the party’s gubernatorial nomination in 2006 – she would lose the general election, however – and was ready to battle the Reid backed candidate in 2012 for the position she now holds until the tabbed individual, current 4th District Congressman Ruben Kihuen (D-Las Vegas), chose not to run.
As part of her statement and to prove her viability as a potential Senate candidate, Rep. Titus released an Anzalone Liszt Grove Research poll (6/23-29; 602 NV likely voters) that projects her only two points behind incumbent Sen. Dean Heller (R), 45-47%. Several months ago, former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) tantalized political observers with statements that he might be considering running for the Senate. In an interview with Politico, he announced that he will do no such thing. In typical Schwarzenegger style, he said, "why would I run for Senate? To be one of one hundred here? That’s not my style.” It was thought Schwarzenegger could be a viable candidate should Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) decide to retire, and if the former Republican Governor would run as an Independent. He left the Governorship with poor approval ratings and is not favorably viewed within the GOP’s conservative wing.
Former Rep. Cresent Hardy (R-Mesquite), who represented the central Nevada 4th District for one term and was contemplating launching a comeback in the newly opened 3rd District, said yesterday that he will not run for any position next year. Mr. Hardy upset then-Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Las Vegas) in 2014, but was unseated himself two years later. Rep. Ruben Kihuen (D-Las Vegas) scored a 48-44% victory over Mr. Hardy last November.
State Rep. Carol Ammons (D-Champaign) announced that she will not launch a congressional challenge to three-term Rep. Rodney Davis (R-Taylorville/Bloomington), saying she prefers to remain in the state legislature. Recently, Ms. Ammons filed a congressional exploratory committee. Virtually simultaneously, attorney Erik Jones (D), a former investigate counsel to congressional committees, came forth to declare his candidacy. Mr. Jones joins four other announced Democrats in the race, including frequent congressional candidate Dr. David Gill.
A Delphi Analytics poll that projects performer Kid Rock (Robert Ritchie) leading Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) is likely a false alarm. The poll reportedly finds the singer/musician topping the three-term Senator 30-26%, but the actual survey and accompanying analysis is no longer available on the published links. The results are suspicious in that Sen. Stabenow would be only posting 26%, an unreasonably low number for a veteran incumbent with positive ratings. It is going to take more than this random poll for us to believe that “Kid Rock” is a viable US Senate contender.
Monmouth University just released their new Virginia statewide poll (7/20-23; 502 VA likely voters) and detects a surprisingly tight 2017 gubernatorial campaign. The results find Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D) and former Republican National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie tied at 44%, apiece. Examining the polling sample more closely, however, reveals a slight Republican skew.
In addition to the Monmouth polling sample under-representing minorities by a factor of nine percentage points in comparison to total population, the weighted numbers also give GOP primary voters a boost. The “primary voting history” is reported at 47% for Republicans versus the Democrats’ 36 percent, yet the latter turned out in greater numbers for the June 13th intra-party elections. Overall, the sample yields 30% self-identified Democrats and 27% Republican, with 43% considering themselves independent. This division skews slightly Republican, as the actual Democratic advantage is a bit larger. Without party registration the actual numbers are difficult to determine, however. Virginia is one of 18 states that do not require voter registrants to state a political party preference or membership. Dr. Christopher Peters (R), a surgeon and military veteran, this weekend announced that he will seek a re-match with Rep. David Loebsack (D-Iowa City/Quad Cities). Mr. Loebsack was the lone Iowa Democratic congressional winner in 2016 defeating Dr. Peters, 54-46%. Though voting 49-45% for President Trump, the 2nd District is typically Democratic so Rep. Loebsack begins in a favorable position from which to seek a sixth term.
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