It’s unlikely that we will see a third campaign between two-term Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R-Oakland/Bangor) and former state Sen. Emily Cain (D). But, another failed two-time candidate is stepping forward. Construction business owner Jonathan Fulford (D), who supported Bernie Sanders’ presidential campaign, declared his congressional candidacy this week. In the last two elections, Mr. Fulford lost close contests to state Senate President Mike Thibodeau (R). The 2nd District has been traditionally Democratic, but Poliquin scored the upset win in 2014, and then increased his victory margin last November. President Trump gained an extra national electoral vote here as he carried the northern Maine CD, 51-41%. Maine is one of two states that partially award electoral votes through congressional district victories.
Prospective Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mark Bernstein, a University of Michigan Regent, officially declared that he will not become a statewide candidate and quickly endorsed former state Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer as part of his announcement. Ms. Whitmer is gaining momentum in the Democratic primary, particularly after US Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Flushing/Flint) who was thought to be the party front-runner, decided to remain in the House. Though there are five other announced Democratic gubernatorial candidates, Ms. Whitmer has clearly positioned herself to build a consensus candidacy.
Filmmaker Leslie Cockburn, mother of film and television performer Olivia Wilde, joined the growing group of Democrats vying to challenge freshman Rep. Tom Garrett (R-Scottsville/Charlottesville). This is another example of a race where a GOP incumbent from a reliably Republican district is drawing multiple opponents, none of whom is an elected official of any kind. Now seeing five contenders in the Democratic field, it remains to be seen whether Virginia party leaders choose a 2018 congressional primary or convention to choose the eventual nominee. Rep. Garrett will be favored for re-election irrespective of who becomes the Democratic nominee.
Manufacturing businessman and retired Army Ranger John James (R) formed a US Senate exploratory committee and appears headed toward becoming a candidate. Should James enter the campaign, he will be the second African American Republican contender. Earlier, former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Bob Young (R) announced his candidacy. Three-term Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) is seeking re-election in a race that is drawing increased attention.
In addition to two-time Democratic nominee Paul Clements returning for another challenge against veteran Rep. Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph), another individual will now be competing for the nomination. Dr. Matt Longjohn (D), the former national health director for the YMCA, announced his congressional candidacy this week. Either Clements, who has lost twice to Upton, or Longjohn would begin the general election in a decided underdog position. Mr. Upton was first elected to his southwestern Michigan seat in 1986.
Former Deputy National Security Advisor (to President Bill Clinton) Nancy Soderberg announced her congressional candidacy yesterday, presumably against three-term Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-Palm Coast/ Daytona Beach). But, Ms. Soderberg may soon find herself in an open seat situation because Rep. DeSantis remains a potential gubernatorial or state Attorney General candidate. The 6th District is safely Republican (Trump: 57-40%), so Soderberg will still have an uphill climb even if DeSantis does depart the House for a statewide race.
California becoming the nation’s top Democratic state is even carrying its effects through to veteran Orange County Republican House members. Rep. Ed Royce (R-Fullerton) was originally elected to the House in 1992 after serving eleven years in the California state Senate. He won a 12th term with 57% of the vote against the flow of a 2016 Democratic Golden State landslide. He currently serves as chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee.
To date he had a pair of announced Democratic opponents and, this week, an additional two came to the forefront. Gil Cisneros (D) may be the first lottery winner to run for the House. In 2010, Mr. Cisneros won $266 million in California’s Mega Millions lottery, so he obviously has the wherewithal to run for Congress. Former Commerce Department official Sam Jammal also announced his candidacy. He previously served as chief of staff to California Congressman Tony Cardenas (D-Pacoima/Los Angeles). While Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) publicly debates whether he will seek an eighth term in the Senate – he was originally elected in 1976 and is the second-longest serving Republican Senator in US history – the Democrats brought forth a credible candidate this week either to oppose him or run in an open seat. Salt Lake County Councilwoman Jenny Wilson officially announced her candidacy. Ms. Wilson has twice won the at-large Council position, meaning she has won two elections countywide in the state’s largest governmental entity. She is the daughter of former Salt Lake City Mayor Ted Wilson (D). Her career covers an array of communications and political positions and she has the ability to wage a potentially competitive statewide campaign.
While Sen. Hatch says he is leaning toward running again, his substantial fundraising action ($1 million in the second quarter; $4.1 million cash-on-hand) suggests that he will once again be on the ballot in the next election. Republicans are heavy favorites to hold this seat, but it now appears at least some competition is on the political horizon. The Illinois Governor’s race is on pace to set a campaign spending record. Second quarter statistics are out, and we see two candidates, incumbent Gov. Bruce Rauner (R) and venture capitalist J.B. Pritzker (D) writing major checks to their own campaign. At the end of last year, Mr. Rauner dropped $50 million of his own money into his campaign and now has a whopping $67 million cash-on-hand. Mr. Pritzker threw $14 million of his own money into the race with just under $5 million left in the bank from his early advertising media blitz. Surprisingly, businessman Chris Kennedy, wealthy son of the late Robert F. Kennedy, raised only $704,000 in the quarter, far below the others even though polling shows him leading the Democratic primary. He has just under $1 million in the bank. Another Democratic candidate, state Sen. Daniel Bliss, actually outraised Kennedy. He gathered just over $1 million, and has $2.3 million available to spend.
Last November, Democratic healthcare executive Angie Craig was widely expected to convert then-retiring Rep. John Kline’s (R) politically marginal southeastern Minneapolis suburban US House district. But, former radio talk show host Jason Lewis and the GOP voting base came to a different conclusion and Craig went down to a close defeat despite raising and spending almost $4 million. This week, Ms. Craig announced she will try again, this time attempting to unseat Rep. Jason Lewis (R-Woodbury). Mr. Lewis surprised most people with his strength as a candidate and was one of the most under-rated winners of the 2016 election cycle. The new Congressman has raised well over $550,000 in his first two quarters as an incumbent, so his campaign will be much stronger this time around.
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