NBC News Poll: Trump Strong for Nomination; Trails Biden: Hart Research (D) and Public Opinion Strategies (R) collaborated on a national survey for NBC News (6/16-20; 1,000 US registered voters; 500 likely Republican primary voters; live interview) and found former President Donald Trump, despite his federal indictments, increasing his lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and the others. According to this data, Mr. Trump secures 51% in the national poll, well ahead of Gov. DeSantis who records 22% support. Former Vice President Mike Pence receives 7%, and no other candidate even reaches the 5% plateau.
In the general election, however, President Biden would lead former President Trump by four percentage points in the national popular vote, while Gov. DeSantis draws even with the President. A whopping 74% believe the country is on the wrong track. President Biden’s job approval was recorded at 43:53% favorable to unfavorable. MD-5: No Retirement in Sight: Former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Mechanicsville), who after winning a special congressional election in 1981 would spend 26 years in top House leadership positions, indicated to the audience of a local Democratic organization event to “not write any obituaries,” as reported on the Daily Kos Elections site. At 84 years of age and out of leadership for the first time since 1989, Rep. Hoyer appeared to be a candidate for retirement. Instead, it looks like he will be on the ballot in 2024 seeking a 23rd term.
TX-31: Rep. John Carter (R) Faces Primary: Army veteran and former Bell County Republican Party chairman Mark Latimer, who claims 11-term Rep. John Carter (R-Round Rock) is “not ready for the fight ahead,” announced that he will enter the March 2024 Republican congressional primary. Mr. Carter, first elected in 2002, faced a primary from two Republicans in 2022 and was renominated with 71% of the vote. He was unopposed in the general election. Over his eleven congressional elections, he’s had only one close call. In 2018, Army veteran Mary Jennings Hegar (D) held him to a 51-48% re-election victory. The 31st District contains two-thirds of Rep. Carter’s home county of Williamson, half of Bell County, and all of Bosque, Burnet, Coryell, and Hamilton Counties in central Texas. Prior to his service in Congress, Rep. Carter was a Williamson County district judge for 20 years. UT-2: Republicans Hold Special District Convention: Utah’s 2nd District Special Republican endorsing convention met in the small, but centrally located town of Delta on Saturday to choose one candidate to advance into the special primary election scheduled for September 5th to replace resigning Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Farmington). After five rounds of balloting, Rep. Stewart’s congressional legal counsel, Celeste Maloy, scored a 52-48% victory over former state House Speaker Greg Hughes. Others may still qualify for the primary ballot but must obtain 7,000 valid 2nd District Republican registered voter signatures by July 5th. At least two of the candidates, former state Rep. Becky Edwards and ex-Republican National Committeeman Bruce Hough, are pursuing the signature option. If no other candidate qualifies for the ballot, Ms. Maloy will officially become the party nominee, and be rated as a heavy favorite to win the November 21st special general election in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+23, and Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 60.1R – 34.2D. No Labels: Major Disparity: Two reports were published this week that show a major conflict as to how a No Labels Party’s proposed presidential candidate would impact the 2024 presidential race. According to No Labels own published map, which does not appear credible, the Democrats would only have solid prospects of carrying California, Connecticut, and the District of Columbia. Republicans would be assured of victory in just Alabama, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Ohio, Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Wyoming.
This would leave states holding 286 electoral votes in play for a No Labels victory. Included would be the traditional Democratic strongholds of Illinois, Minnesota, New Mexico, and Washington and the normally reliably Republican states of Florida, Montana, Texas, and Utah. The Data for Progress polling firm tested how a No Labels candidate would fare and arrived at a vastly different conclusion than their aforementioned map. According to the DfP most recent nationwide poll (5/25-6/5; 1,625 US likely voters; online), a generic No Labels candidate draws only 13% of the national popular voter with a generic Democrat posting 41%, and a generic Republican 42%. The Data for Progress findings suggest that overwhelming numbers of Republicans (89%) will support the Republican presidential candidate and 88% of Democrats would do the same in relation to their party’s nominee. Even among Independents and/or non-affiliated voters, a No Labels candidate would do poorly. Within this group who seemingly would be inclined to vote for a third party candidate, only 33% would do so. Ipsos/Telemundo: New Hispanic Poll Suggests More Openness to GOP: The Ipsos polling firm partnering with the Axios news service and Noticias Telemundo conducted an online nationwide poll of 1,116 Latino adults and registered voters over the June 2-9 period. Possibly the most surprising response is that a respondent plurality of 32% believes that neither party cares about them. A total of 30% say the Democrats care more about them, 11% believe Republicans do, another 11% say both do, and 15% did not respond for various reasons. The Ipsos/Telemundo polling analysis further says that the Hispanic numbers are down considerably for Democrats when compared to historical trends. The study compares the 60% of the vote Latinos delivered for Democrats in 2022 to Presidents John F. Kennedy receiving 90% of the Latino vote in 1960, and Jimmy Carter attracting 82% Hispanic support in 1976. In 2022, Republicans garnered 39% of the Hispanic vote, which is a significant increase. Any time the Republicans reach 36% in this demographic category they are exceeding their national vote goal. Florida: Ex-Rep. Grayson (D) Announces: Democrats have had a hard time finding a candidate willing to challenge Sen. Rick Scott (R), but now they have one. Former Congressman and now frequently defeated candidate Alan Grayson (D) announced yesterday that he will again run for US Senate.
Ex-Rep. Grayson has a rather checkered political past. He first ran for the US House in 2006 and was defeated. He won the Orlando anchored 8th District two years later in 2008 but was defeated for re-election in 2010. He came back in the post-redistricting neighboring 9th CD race in 2012 and was re-elected two years later. Mr. Grayson then vacated the seat to run for the Senate in 2016 but lost the Democratic primary. He returned in 2018 to run for his former 9th District seat but lost to the man who succeeded him, Rep. Darren Soto (D-Kissimmee). In 2022, he again announced for the Senate but dropped out of the race to enter the 10th Congressional District campaign but lost the Democratic primary. For his part, Sen. Scott once again debunked recent rumors that he will become a late entry into the presidential contest and reiterated his commitment to seeking re-election to the Senate. He faces multi-millionaire businessman Keith Gross in the Republican primary. Sen. Scott is a heavy favorite for renomination and re-election, particularly if the Democrats can’t find a stronger candidate than Mr. Grayson. Louisiana: AG Landry & Shawn Wilson Way Up: A recent Kitchens Group and Vantage Data House poll (6/12-15; 1,600 LA likely 2023 primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) projects Attorney General and former Congressman Jeff Landry (R) and ex-Louisiana Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson (D) would easily outdistance the other six announced candidates in the open Governor’s race. The all-party jungle primary election is scheduled for October 14th.
The poll results find Messrs. Landry and Wilson posting 31 and 21%, respectively, while no other candidate reaches even 7% support. If no one scores majority support in the qualifying election, the top two finishers advance to a November 18th runoff election. Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) is ineligible to seek a third term and has endorsed Mr. Wilson as his successor. Delaware: Rep. Blunt Rochester Announces: As expected, Delaware at-large US Representative Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Wilmington) officially declared her US Senate candidacy. The move became obvious when Sen. Tom Carper (D) announced his retirement in May and as part of his address encouraged the Congresswoman, a former aide and appointee when Mr. Carper was Governor, to run for the seat.
Rep. Blunt Rochester, first elected in 2016, is expected to have little opposition both in the Democratic primary and general election. The Senate seat will remain in the Democratic column. There could be developing competition brewing for Ms. Blunt Rochester’s open House seat, however. Montana: Rep. Rosendale Way Up in GOP Primary Poll: Public Policy Polling tested the Montana Republican Senate primary (6/19-20; 510 MT likely Republican primary voters; live interview & text) and sees US Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) as the big early leader. According to the ballot test, Rep. Rosendale posts ahead of retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, 64-10%. The Congressman faced seven different Montana electorates in the past seven elections and won five times. The National Republican Senatorial Committee leadership would prefer a different candidate since Rep. Rosendale is viewed as part of the far right flank of the Republican Conference and lost to Sen. Jon Tester (D) in the 2018 campaign, but the statewide GOP polling sample propelled him to a huge lead for a potential 2024 Senate race. Thus, whether the national Republican leadership likes it or not, Rep. Rosendale, when he announces for the Senate, must be viewed as the clear favorite to win the Republican nomination. He would then advance into the general election for a re-match with Sen. Tester, the lone Democratic statewide office holder in Montana. This is one of top three Republican conversion opportunities in the nation. NV-1: Re-Match Possibility: In November, financial planner Mark Robertson (R) held Nevada Rep. Dina Titus (D-Las Vegas) to a 52-46% re-election victory in a district that had been drastically changed through redistricting. Many, however, viewed the result as a Republican under-performance in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+4.
Whether Mr. Robertson gets another chance to oppose Rep. Titus remains a question. He has Republican primary opposition from business consultant Ron Quince and restaurant chain owner Flemming Larsen. All three Las Vegas Democratic seats have competitive potential. With such a slim House majority and the Alabama racial gerrymandering ruling from the Supreme Court favoring the Democratic position, the Republicans will pursue as many offensive opportunities as possible. Therefore, expect Nevada to become another hotbed of political activity in 2024. OR-5: Democratic Primary Forming: Two weeks ago, Oregon Metro President Lynn Peterson (D) announced her entry into the Congressional District 5 Democratic primary and yesterday state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Happy Valley) filed a committee with the Federal Election Commission to join her as the perceived two top candidates. The winner will advance to challenge freshman Rep. Lori Chavez DeRemer (R-Happy Valley). The 5th District race will be hotly contested. Ms. Chavez-DeRemer defeated Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner by a 51-49% margin in November. Ms. McLeod-Skinner, a first time candidate in Oregon but former local office holder in California, had already defeated incumbent Rep. Kurt Schrader in the Democratic primary. She is also a potential 2024 candidate. The district carries a D+3 rating from the FiveThirtyEight data organization and is categorized as a swing district. This will be a top Democratic conversion opportunity seat and will attract national political attention. Cornel West: Switches to Green Party: Author/Activist Cornel West, who had declared his presidential candidacy under the People’s Party label has switched to the Green Party.
Assuming his new party nominates Mr. West, the move makes sense. The Green Party already has ballot status in 18 states and continues to work for more. Therefore, Mr. West has much greater initial ballot access under the Green Party label than he does with the virtually unknown People’s Party. If he gets enough attention, a West candidacy could draw from President Biden in some of the key states. CA-47: Republican Baugh Leads in Dem Poll: Public Policy Polling (6/14-16; 555 CA-47 registered voters; live interview & text), surveying for state Senator David Min (D-Irvine) to help position him for the open congressional race, released the data results. The initial ballot test favored Republican former state Assemblyman Scott Baugh by a 39-37% margin. After push questions, Sen. Min unsurprisingly pulled ahead, but even this Democratic poll suggests the open Orange County congressional seat battle will be intensely competitive.
In 2022, Mr. Baugh held Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) to 51.7% of the vote. The 47th District includes the cities of Irvine, Costa Mesa, Huntington Beach, Newport Beach, and Laguna Beach. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+6. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 52.5D – 45.5R. Rep. Porter is leaving the district to run for US Senate. Houston: Ex-City Councilwoman Leaves Mayor’s Race: Former Houston City Councilwoman and ex-US Senate candidate Amanda Edwards (D) is ending her campaign for the open Mayor’s position but has her eyes on Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee’s US House seat.
Ms. Edwards, who now endorses Rep. Jackson Lee for Mayor, says she will be a candidate in an 18th Congressional District special election should the Congresswoman win the Mayor’s race. Ms. Edwards says she is confident Rep. Jackson Lee will be elected as Houston’s chief executive. Polling, however, suggests the leading candidate is state Senator John Whitmire (D-Houston) who has represented the city in the legislature since the beginning of 1973. The Mayor’s election will be held on November 7, 2023. If no candidate receives majority support in that contest, a runoff will be scheduled likely for a point in December. |
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