South Carolina: Republicans Opt for Later Primary: South Carolina moving to first position is the focal point of the Democrats’ new presidential pre-Super Tuesday primary calendar, but some of the affected states are not in agreement. Georgia, for example, voted not to adopt the Democratic National Committee recommendation and New Hampshire is sure to follow suit. Michigan has agreed, and both parties will vote on February 27th.
Over the weekend, the South Carolina Republican Party convention delegates voted to hold the state’s Republican primary on February 24th. Democrats have already chosen February 3rd. Therefore, it is likely the state will hold two primaries, one for each party. Holding separate primary days in this state has previously happened. Both Palmetto State parties want South Carolina to continue having a premier primary, so the state is likely to make scheduling accommodations for each political entity. Wisconsin: GOP Convention Favors Rep. Tiffany: The Wisconsin Republican Party convention conducted straw polls of its attenders over the weekend, and though it was no surprise that former President Trump outpolled Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (53-34%), much of the attention fell to the US Senate contest. Since Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Green Bay) announced last week that he would not run for the Senate, the party is in need of a strong challenger to oppose two-term incumbent Tammy Baldwin (D) next year.
A strong plurality of party delegates are now looking to Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua), who is indicating he has some interest in the statewide race. A total of 35% of the delegates voted for Rep. Tiffany as their first choice to oppose Sen. Baldwin. Former Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke was second with 19%, with businessman and former statewide candidate Kevin Nicholson, ex-state Sen. Roger Roth, and businessmen Eric Hovde and Scott Mayer following with 16, 11, 8 and 1%, respectively. None from this group are official candidates. UT-2: Special Convention, Debates Scheduled: The Utah Republican Party has scheduled the special 2nd District GOP live nominating convention for this coming Saturday, June 24th in the city of Delta, which is in the geographical center of the sprawling CD that stretches from the city of Farmington, through the western Salt Lake City suburbs and then all the way to the Arizona border. Democrats are meeting in a virtual convention on June 28th.
The 2nd District Republican delegates will vote among the 13 filed Republicans to send one into the special September 5th primary as the official party endorsed candidate. Democrats have three candidates including the favorite for the nomination, state Sen. Kathleen Riebe (D-Cottonwood Heights). The delegates will continue the voting process until one candidate receives majority support. This individual will automatically be placed on the primary ballot. Other candidates wishing to contest the nomination will be required to file 7,000 valid registered voter petition signatures from the party for which they are attempting to qualify. Republican debates have also been scheduled for the special election. The northern Utah forum will be held today, with the southern district event on Thursday. Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Farmington), for family reasons, is resigning his seat on September 15th. The special general election will be held on November 21st. Republicans are favored to hold the UT-2 seat which the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+23. New Hampshire: Gov. Sununu Leaning Toward Retirement: In a radio interview yesterday, four-term Gov. Chris Sununu (R) said, “I don’t think I’m going to run again,” but indicated he would make a firm decision this summer.
Gov. Sununu is only the second four-term Governor in state history, and no one has served five. New Hampshire, along with neighboring Vermont are the only two places that have two-year gubernatorial terms. Already, Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig and Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington have indicated they will compete for the Democratic nomination. In an open situation, the New Hampshire state house would be a prime Democratic conversion target. National Research Poll: Christie Shows: A new National Research poll conducted for the American Greatness Super PAC (6/12-14; 500 NH likely Republican primary voters) finds former President Donald Trump gaining strength in the Granite State, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis drops down several points from the group’s last survey. In a surprise, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie bolts into a third place tie with Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) at 7% apiece.
A point the pollsters made revolves around New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu deciding not to run for President. At least in this first poll taken after his announcement, the results did not help Gov. DeSantis as expected. Instead, the pollsters indicated the Sununu support appeared to gravitate to either Sen. Scott or ex-Gov. Christie. Indiana: Gov. Holcomb Won’t Run: Term-limited Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) announced that he will not enter the US Senate race or run for any other office in 2024. The Governor taking a pass on the Senate race means US Rep. Jim Banks (R-Columbia City) now becomes the prohibitive favorite to win the May 7, 2024, Republican primary. He will be viewed as a lock to win the general election as the Democrats have yet to produce a competitive candidate. Incumbent Sen. Mike Braun (R) is not seeking re-election in order to run for Governor.
CA-31: Former Dem Mayor Files Against Rep. Napolitano: Community College Trustee and former Monrovia Mayor Mary Ann Lutz (D) filed candidacy documents with the Federal Election Commission for her southern California congressional district. If she formally files, the race could lead to a Democrat vs. Democrat general election under California’s all-party jungle primary system.
It is also possible that Ms. Lutz is creating a placeholder committee in case 86-year oldincumbent Rep. Grace Napolitano (D-Norwalk) decides to retire. MD-6: Lt. Gov. Won’t Run: Yesterday, Maryland Lt. Gov. Aruna Miller (D) announced that she will not enter the open 6th Congressional District race. Ms. Miller ran for the seat in 2018 when it was last open, finishing second in the Democratic primary to eventual winner David Trone. With Mr. Trone now running for the Senate, the politically competitive 6th District is now open again. At this point five Democrats and three Republicans have announced their candidacies. On the Democratic side, two state Delegates are in the race, Lesley Lopez (D-Montgomery Village) and Joe Vogel (D-Montgomery County). Two-time GOP nominee Neil Parrott has not yet entered the race. Defeated GOP gubernatorial nominee Dan Cox also claims to be considering the congressional contest but has yet to make a final decision. UT-2: Special Election Candidate Filing Closes: Gov. Spencer Cox (R) set the special primary election to replace resigning US Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Farmington) for September 5th and the special general on November 21st. The candidate filing period has now closed. A total of 13 Republicans, three Democrats, and six minor party or Independent candidates have filed. For the Republicans, who will be favored to hold the seat, former state House Speaker Greg Hughes, ex-state Rep. and US Senate candidate Becky Edwards, and former Republican National Committeeman Bruce Hough are official candidates, and at this point comprise the first tier. For the Democrats, the leading contender is state Sen. Kathleen Riebe (D-Cottonwood Heights). The political parties will now call a special district convention. The delegates will nominate one candidate to advance into the special primary by majority vote. Others can still qualify for the primary through the petition signature process. Francis Suarez.: Miami Mayor Files Presidential Committee: As has been expected for some time, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez filed a presidential committee yesterday with the Federal Election Commission and becomes the tenth Republican candidate. Obviously a long shot who may be positioning himself as a potential Vice Presidential pick, Mayor Suarez would be attractive to Republicans as a candidate with potential national appeal to the Hispanic community.
YouGov Economist Poll: Mixed Results: The YouGov international online polling firm again conducted one of their extensive periodic surveys for The Economist publication (6/10-13; 1,500 US adults; online), and though a majority of respondents firmly believe former President Trump should have been indicted over the classified documents issue, he would surprisingly still lead President Biden by a percentage point in the national popular vote. The respondents largely sour over the group of eleven tested potential presidential candidates, however. Only Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (49:30% favorable to unfavorable), Sen. Tim Scott (33:25%), and Vivek Ramaswamy (26:19%) found themselves with positive ratings. Former Governor Chris Christie had the highest negative rating at 27:51% favorable to unfavorable. Ex-Vice President Mike Pence (36:53%), Sen. Joe Manchin (26:37%), ex-President Trump (43:53%), President Biden (45:52%), Marianne Williamson (19:24%), Gov. Ron DeSantis (41:46%), and former Ambassador Nikki Haley (33:34%) all followed in the upside down category. CA-45: Rep. Steel Draws Fourth Dem Challenger: Yesterday, attorney Jimmy Pham became the fourth Democratic candidate to enter the 2024 congressional race hoping to challenge two-term Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Orange County) in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+5.
In addition to Mr. Pham, Garden Grove City Councilwoman Kim Nguyen, and attorneys Cheyenne Hunt and Aditya Pai are announced candidates. Community College Trustee Jay Chen, who held Rep. Steel to a 52-48% victory in 2022, is a potential re-match contender but has yet to make his 2024 political plans known. Expect this to be a top Democratic target race. The 45th is one of four California Democratic seats that a Republican represents. Montana: Gov. Gianforte to Face Primary Challenge: Without articulating a particular criticism against Gov. Greg Gianforte (R), state Rep. Tanner Smith (R-Lakeside) announced yesterday that he will launch a Republican gubernatorial primary challenge.
Gov. Gianforte, whose job approval ratings are high, does not appear to be vulnerable to any Republican primary challenger. At this point, he would also be rated as a prohibitive favorite to win a second full term in the 2024 general election. The Montana primary is scheduled for June 4, 2024. |
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