No Labels: Major Disparity: Two reports were published this week that show a major conflict as to how a No Labels Party’s proposed presidential candidate would impact the 2024 presidential race. According to No Labels own published map, which does not appear credible, the Democrats would only have solid prospects of carrying California, Connecticut, and the District of Columbia. Republicans would be assured of victory in just Alabama, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Ohio, Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Wyoming.
This would leave states holding 286 electoral votes in play for a No Labels victory. Included would be the traditional Democratic strongholds of Illinois, Minnesota, New Mexico, and Washington and the normally reliably Republican states of Florida, Montana, Texas, and Utah. The Data for Progress polling firm tested how a No Labels candidate would fare and arrived at a vastly different conclusion than their aforementioned map. According to the DfP most recent nationwide poll (5/25-6/5; 1,625 US likely voters; online), a generic No Labels candidate draws only 13% of the national popular voter with a generic Democrat posting 41%, and a generic Republican 42%. The Data for Progress findings suggest that overwhelming numbers of Republicans (89%) will support the Republican presidential candidate and 88% of Democrats would do the same in relation to their party’s nominee. Even among Independents and/or non-affiliated voters, a No Labels candidate would do poorly. Within this group who seemingly would be inclined to vote for a third party candidate, only 33% would do so. Ipsos/Telemundo: New Hispanic Poll Suggests More Openness to GOP: The Ipsos polling firm partnering with the Axios news service and Noticias Telemundo conducted an online nationwide poll of 1,116 Latino adults and registered voters over the June 2-9 period. Possibly the most surprising response is that a respondent plurality of 32% believes that neither party cares about them. A total of 30% say the Democrats care more about them, 11% believe Republicans do, another 11% say both do, and 15% did not respond for various reasons. The Ipsos/Telemundo polling analysis further says that the Hispanic numbers are down considerably for Democrats when compared to historical trends. The study compares the 60% of the vote Latinos delivered for Democrats in 2022 to Presidents John F. Kennedy receiving 90% of the Latino vote in 1960, and Jimmy Carter attracting 82% Hispanic support in 1976. In 2022, Republicans garnered 39% of the Hispanic vote, which is a significant increase. Any time the Republicans reach 36% in this demographic category they are exceeding their national vote goal. Comments are closed.
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