In 2018, Republican Jim Hagedorn scored a close 50.1 – 49.7% win over former Defense Department official Dan Feehan (D). Now, we head into a re-match general election this year, and a new Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group internal campaign survey (6/9-13; 601 MN-1 likely general election voters) finds the new race beginning just as close as the former contest ended.
According to a GHY, Mr. Feehan holds a slight 43-42% edge, meaning we will likely see another race in toss-up mode all the way to Election Day. Minnesota’s 1st District covers all of the state’s southern border and has been moving more toward the Republicans in recent elections. It was one of only three seats that flipped from Democrat to Republican in 2018. So far, Gov. Roy Cooper (D) has enjoyed strong leads in his general election campaign with Lt. Gov. Dan Forest (R). In twelve polls from nine different pollsters conducted a month after the March 3rd primary until the present, Mr. Cooper has averaged 51.8% preference as opposed to Mr. Forest’s 36.2 percent.
Now, however, Gravis Marketing released the results of their one-day flash poll (6/17; 631 NC registered voters), which forecasts the two candidates languishing in a 46-46% tie. We will soon see if this poll is an outlier or is the first to detect a new developing trend in this gubernatorial campaign. Last week, Dan Jones & Associates released a survey of the Utah Republican electorate (6/1-10; 555 UT likely Republican primary voters) that projected former Gov. Jon Huntsman taking a slight 35-33% lead over Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox. The two are the top contenders to succeed retiring Gov. Gary Herbert (R) in November.
According to an internal Y2 Analytics survey (released 6/18; respondent data not available), Mr. Cox still maintains a 34-28% lead over Gov. Huntsman with former state House Speaker Greg Hughes reaching 20%, and former Utah Republican Party chairman Thomas Wright lagging behind with 9% preference. The Utah primary is June 30th, and the Republican winner will become the prohibitive favorite in the November general election. After the Colorado Ethics Commission found former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) in violation of two ethics provisions during his tenure as the state’s Governor, trends have taken a downturn in his US Senate campaign. Apparently, internal polling must be showing Mr. Hickenlooper falling into a close race for Tuesday’s Democratic primary against former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff.
The progressive left Senate Majority PAC just put down a $1 million media buy in order to improve Mr. Hickenlooper’s image after the Ethics Commission ruling. Suddenly, what was a mundane primary affair coming this Tuesday is beginning to draw more attention. A new Civiqs poll of the Kentucky electorate, polling for the Daily Kos Elections website (6/13-15; 898 KY registered voters), finds Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) opening up substantial leads over both of his potential general election opponents. Retired Marine Corps helicopter pilot Amy McGrath, after already raising a whopping $40 million so far for her campaign, was viewed as the clear favorite for the Democratic nomination. This Civiqs poll, however, finds state Rep. Charles Booker (D-Louisville) now taking a 44-36% lead over Ms. McGrath.
The general election data is also unfavorable for McGrath. Looking at individual ballot test results, Sen. McConnell would destroy her 57-37%, while leading Rep. Booker, 52-38%. The Granite State’s St. Anselm University, which conducts political polling, just completed an online survey of 1,072 registered voters during the June 13-16 period. The results find former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Trump, 49-42%. This tracks in the same average range as was recorded for Hillary Clinton during the commensurate period in 2016. In the end, however, New Hampshire’s actual vote margin was one of the closest in the country, with Ms. Clinton carrying the state by only 2,736 votes.
We Ask America surveyed the New Hampshire electorate (6/13-15; 500 likely NH general election voters) and found two-term Gov. Chris Sununu (R) topping state Senate Majority Leader Dan Feltes (D-Concord) by a whopping 59-20% spread. Gov. Sununu also records an eye-popping 76:16% job approval ratio.
New Hampshire, like neighboring Vermont, awards its Governor only two-year terms. Therefore, even though Mr. Sununu is seeking his third term, he is only coming to the end of his fourth year in office. Recently data from across the country and in key battleground states have forecast a strong advantage for Democratic nominee-designate Joe Biden over President Trump. A new Change Research polling series of seven polls, six stemming from their national polling sample (6/12-14; 1,250 US likely general election voters with subsets in AZ, FL, MI, NC, PA, and WI) finds the President gaining in his must-win states.
The national ballot test continues to give Biden a wide 51-41% national margin, but, as is the case with such polling, the Democrats’ overwhelming advantage in the big states skews the overall popular vote count. Additionally, as we saw in 2016, the national count is irrelevant in electing a US President. In the key states, however, Change Research, which is a Democratic pollster, finds Trump to be within 1-4 points in the key battlegrounds of Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and down by seven points in Florida. It is these battlegrounds that will truly decide the November election. Veteran Rep. Eliot Engel (D-Bronx) is in trouble for his June 23rd Democratic primary showdown with former middle school principal Jamaal Bowman, a new Data for Progress survey reveals. The poll, conducted for the Bowman campaign (released 6/17; 525 NY-16 likely Democratic primary voters) gives the challenger a 41-31% lead over Rep. Engel, and a whopping 52-36% advantage when leaners are added.
The Engel campaign spokesperson responded that the poll was flawed because it did not list the other two Democratic candidates in the primary race, while their own internal Global Strategy Group survey posts the Congressman to an eight-point lead. The Engel campaign, however, refused to make their poll public. It appears the 16th District race is becoming the contest to watch on Tuesday night. Public Policy Polling, surveying for the Greenburgh Town Democratic Committee (6/15-16; 1,141 likely NY-17 Democratic primary voters via interactive response device) finds attorney Mondaire Jones taking the lead for Tuesday’s open seat Democratic primary that features a field of eight Democratic candidates.
According to PPP, Mr. Jones takes 25% of the congressional primary vote followed by self-funding attorney Adam Schleifer and ex-Defense Department official Evelyn Farkas trailing with 14% apiece. Another poll’s previous leader, state Sen. David Carlucci (D-New City/Ossining) drops to 11% support. Last week’s Data for Progress survey found Carlucci leading the pack with 15%, followed by Schleifer and Farkas at 13%, and Jones closely trailing with 12 percent. Tuesday promises to yield a close finish. The Democratic winner will become to prohibitive favorite to replace retiring Rep. Nita Lowey (D-Harrison) in the general election. |
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