iA heavy primary ballot is far from complete as absentee ballots will decide several races. It is clear, however, that state Sen. Chris Jacobs (R-Buffalo) won the 27th District special election and will be sworn into the current House of Representatives. He defeated former Grand Island Town Supervisor Nate McMurray, 69-29%, to take the seat and replace resigned Rep. Chris Collins (R). Mr. Jacobs then easily won the Republican primary for the regular term, defeating two GOP opponents.
Though many votes remain to be counted, 16-term Rep. Eliot Engel (D-Bronx) has lost his seat as former middle school principal Jamaal Bowman records a 61-34% lead among the counted vote, which should give him an insurmountable margin. Mr. Engel will join Reps. Dan Lipinski (D-IL), Steve King (R-IA), and Denver Riggleman (R-VA), who have already been denied re-nomination in the 2020 election cycle. In Manhattan, Rep. Carolyn Maloney has only a 648 vote lead in her primary contest against hotel executive Suraj Patel, meaning absentee ballots will decide the outcome here. In the two Bronx area open seats, New York City Councilman Ritchie Torres has a wide lead in the multi-candidate battle to replace retiring Rep. Jose Serrano (D-Bronx), while attorney Mondaire Jones posts a 2:1 margin over his closest Democratic opponent in the Bronx/Westchester County district to replace retiring Rep. Nita Lowey (D-Harrison). Freshman Representative and national political figure Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-Bronx) easily won her re-nomination battle with 70% of the vote. Western North Carolina voters spoke loudly yesterday as real estate investment company owner Madison Cawthorn recorded a 66-34% landslide win over former local county Republican chair Lynda Bennett in the postponed Republican runoff election. This, despite Ms. Bennett having former Rep. Mark Meadows’ and President Trump’s endorsement. Mr. Cawthorn, who barely makes the qualifying age requirement to be a candidate, won 16 of the district’s 17 counties. He now becomes a strong favorite to defeat Democratic nominee Moe Davis, a retired US Air Force colonel, in the general election.
Two key Virginia races now have nominees. In Virginia’s 5th District, Democrats selected local physician Cameron Webb scored a landslide 66% victory to oppose former Campbell County Supervisor Bob Good (R), the man who denied freshman Rep. Denver Riggleman (R-Manassas) re-nomination in the June 13th Republican district convention. Mr. Good, however, still must obtain a ballot placement waiver from the Virginia Board of Elections for missing the candidate filing deadline.
In the Tidewater area, a re-match of the 2018 campaign will occur. Former Rep. Scott Taylor, who lost his seat in that election, will return for a re-match with his primary victory last night. He will battle freshman Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Norfolk) in the general election. Voters in New York, North Carolina, and Virginia will choose congressional nominees in various districts today. New York hosts the most competitive slate, with ten competitive primaries coming to culmination.
The vacant 27th District will be filled in a special election between state Sen. Chris Jacobs (R-Buffalo) and Democratic former Grand Island town official Nate McMurray. The competitive incumbent challenges to Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-Bronx) and Eliot Engel (D-Bronx) will also produce a nominee along with lesser challenges to Reps. Yvette Clarke (D-Brooklyn), Jerrold Nadler (D-Manhattan), and Carolyn Maloney (D-Manhattan). Key open seat primaries will be held in the 15th (Rep. Jose Serrano-D, retiring) and the 17th (Rep. Nita Lowey-D, retiring) districts, both featuring crowded fields. The Republicans will also choose a successor to retiring Rep. Peter King (R-Seaford). Western North Carolina voters will replace now White House chief of staff Mark Meadows on their state’s 11th District November ballot. Former local county Republican chair Lynda Bennett and real estate investment company owner Madison Cawthorn will square off in the postponed Republican runoff election. In Virginia’s 5th District, Democrats will choose their nominee to oppose former Campbell County Supervisor Bob Good (R), the man who denied freshman Rep. Denver Riggleman (R-Manassas) re-nomination in the June 13th Republican district convention. State Rep. Charles Booker (D-Louisville) continues to gain momentum heading into today’s Democratic primary vote against retired Marine Corps helicopter pilot Amy McGrath. Now, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) has endorsed Mr. Booker in another attempt to solidify the left flank of the Kentucky Democratic Party.
Ms. McGrath has already raised more than $41 million for her challenge to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), and has spent over $20 million of her funding in the party primary. The most recent Kentucky poll, from the Civiqs research group polling for the Daily Kos Elections website, gave Mr. Booker a 44-36% lead over Ms. McGrath despite her huge 20:1 funding advantage when compared to her intra-party challenger. After being quiet most of the presidential election cycle, the Trafalgar Group, the only pollster to correctly project the Great Lakes states in the 2016 election, released new data for Michigan, and again they are cutting against the polling grain. According to their latest political research study (6/16-18; 1,101 MI likely voters), Trafalgar projects former Vice President Joe Biden to hold only a one-point 46-45% lead over President Trump, which is almost identical to Change Research’s (6/12-14; 353 MI likely voters) 47-45% published polling margin.
Trafalgar and Change portend the most recent data and reflect a much different trend. All other earlier pollsters find the Democratic nominee-designate scoring leads of at least 12 points (five pollsters) from May 30 through June 12. Retired Auburn University head football coach Tommy Tuberville (R) would easily unseat Sen. Doug Jones (D) according to a recently released Cygnal political poll of the Alabama electorate. The survey (6/13-16; 530 AL likely voters) gives Mr. Tuberville a 50-36% wide advantage over Sen. Jones, a major improvement from the May FM3 Research survey (5/14-18; 601 AL likely voters) that saw only a 47-44% split. If former US Attorney General and Senator Jeff Sessions were the Republican nominee, he would lead Sen. Jones, 45-35%. The Republican US Senate run-off is July 14th.
A Utah Policy Council/KUTV Channel 2 poll (6/9-17; 640 UT registered Republican voters) contradicts last week’s Dan Jones & Associates survey (6/1-10; 555 UT likely Republican primary voters) that projected former Gov. Jon Huntsman taking a slight 35-33% lead over Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox. The Utah Policy Council data is closer to the Y2 Analytics survey (released 6/18; respondent data not available) study that posted Mr. Cox to a 34-28% advantage.
The Utah Policy data, however, not only finds Lt. Gov. Cox topping ex-Gov. Huntsman, 34-30%, but shows former state House Speaker Greg Hughes climbing into serious contention with 26%, while former Utah Republican Party chairman Thomas Wright increases his support to 10% preference. The Utah primary is June 30th. Former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff released an internal poll late last week that, while still showing him trailing former Gov. John Hickenlooper for the June 30th Democratic US Senate primary, proves he is gaining momentum. The Myers Research and Strategic Services firm (6/16-17; 500 CO likely Democratic primary voters), finds Mr. Hickenlooper leading Mr. Romanoff 51-39%, which is much closer than their previous 68-19% finding when polling first began of this primary in late October.
Mr. Hickenlooper is coming under fire after being found in violation of two state Ethics Commission findings and has received not only negative media coverage for the decision but has come under further significant attack from Romanoff over integrity issues. Though the underdog is gaining in the primary battle, it is still likely that he won’t be able to overcome what is still a substantial Hickenlooper advantage. Since the former Governor’s victory next Tuesday may be tepid, he looks to be starting the general election against Sen. Cory Gardner (R) in a weaker position than expected. Gravis Marketing surveyed the North Carolina electorate (6/17; 631 NC registered voters), and though they found a surprising result in the Governor’s race (see below), Gravis once again detects a very tight contest between Sen. Thom Tillis (R) and former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D).
The Gravis numbers give Sen. Tillis a one point, 46-45%, edge, and we can expect to see polling numbers such as these all the way to Election Day. Clearly, this race will remain in toss-up mode all the way through November 3rd, which is typical for a North Carolina statewide campaign. |
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