Under a bill that just passed the California Assembly, the already notoriously slow California post-election counting period that often takes weeks to determine a winner in a close election, would grow even longer. In an effort to stop a lawsuit that says Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) does not have the power to order the Secretary of State to mail a live ballot to all California voters, the Assembly passed a measure to codify that power and, among other points, would expand the post-election ballot reception period from three to 17 days. The bill must now pass the state Senate before moving to Gov. Newsom for his signature.
Once this bill becomes law, it could be well into December before some close election Golden State winners are declared. The Civiqs polling organization, surveying for the Daily Kos Elections website (6/13-15; 1,368 AZ previously selected respondents from a larger sampling pool; online), again finds retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D) holding a substantial lead over appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R). The numbers break 51-42% in Kelly’s favor, which is actually a slight improvement for McSally. This compares to the poll’s 49-45% split for Joe Biden over President Trump, which is a more reasonable spread as compared to some recent surveys of the Arizona electorate.
Public Policy Polling tested the Georgia electorate soon after the June 9th primary (6/12-13; 661 GA registered) that included four push questions designed to favor the Democratic position. The advocacy questions were ostensibly asked after the original ballot test query was posed. The results find new Democratic nominee Jon Ossoff pushing past Sen. David Perdue (R) by a slight 45-44% margin.
The same sample finds Joe Biden topping President Trump, 48-46%. The latter spread is questionable considering that the respondents rate the President’s job approval as 44:47% favorable to unfavorable. Such a ballot test is inconsistent with other polls finding the President’s approval in this range. Typically, he would be leading the head-to-head response with a job approval rating that is much better than his national standing, particularly in a state with a Republican vote history. Public Policy Polling, surveying for the New Mexico Political Report (6/12-13; 740 NM registered voters) and this time using no push questions, finds Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D-Nambe) establishing his expected strong lead over new Republican nominee Mark Ronchetti, a former Albuquerque television weatherman. The ballot test breaks 48-34% for Rep. Lujan, who was unopposed in the Democratic statewide primary held June 2nd. The same sampling group posts Joe Biden to a 53-39% lead over President Trump, which is no surprise in a state easily projected for the Democratic column. The November Senate winner succeeds retiring two-term incumbent Tom Udall (D).
In a Democratic primary race that is becoming more competitive everyday between veteran Rep. Eliot Engel (D-Bronx) and former middle school principal Jamaal Bowman, two familiar Democratic foes made recent endorsements and, not surprisingly, chose different sides. Former Secretary of State and 2016 presidential nominee Hillary Clinton yesterday announced her support for Rep. Engel, while Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), as we know a two-time presidential candidate, publicly backs Mr. Bowman. The New York primary is next Tuesday, June 23rd.
For the first time since he announced his political comeback, former Governor and US Ambassador Jon Huntsman has established a lead in a Republican gubernatorial poll for the upcoming June 30th partisan primary. Dan Jones Associates, polling for the Salt Lake Chamber of Commerce (6/1-10; 555 UT likely Republican primary voters) finds Mr. Huntsman topping the GOP field with 35% preference, slightly ahead of Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox, who posts 33% support. Former Utah state House Speaker Greg Hughes and ex-Utah Republican Party chairman Thomas Wright follow well behind with 10 and 5 percent, respectively.
The June 30th primary promises to be close. Every other recent survey has projected Lt. Gov. Cox in first place. The Republican primary winner becomes the prohibitive favorite to replace retiring Gov. Gary Herbert (R) in November. After a week of counting mail and post-election ballots in Georgia and Nevada, we have two more nomination winners.
In what will be a hotly contested open Atlanta suburban GA-7 race another reversal from the original Associated Press projection has occurred. Now, 2018 Democratic nominee Carolyn Bourdeaux has been declared the outright winner, avoiding the runoff campaign to which she was originally headed. The latest returns now push her over 51%, enough to mathematically clinch victory. The slow count and thousands of ballots coming in after the June 9th primary election again led to a change in outcome. Ms. Bourdeaux, who came within 420 votes of upsetting Rep. Rob Woodall (R-Lawrenceville) in 2018, will face Republican physician and retired Navy veteran Rich McCormick, who garnered more than 55% of the vote in last Tuesday’s Republican primary. This will be a toss-up campaign in the Fall. In Nevada, also from a June 9th primary contest, Republican former state Assemblyman Jim Marchant has now been declared the winner over insurance agency owner Sam Peters by a 34-29% margin in the 4th Congressional District, a an unfolding result where the totals remained close but did not fundamentally change as votes were continually counted. Mr. Marchant will now challenge Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Las Vegas) in a general election campaign that has the potential of becoming competitive. Rep. Horsford is favored, but the 4th CD, since its original inception in the 2011 redistricting plan, has yet to re-elect an incumbent Representative. The Kentucky primary culminates next week on June 23rd, and Senate Democratic candidate Charles Booker, a Louisville state Representative, has just released an internal poll showing him doing much better than expected against presumptive nominee Amy McGrath.
According to Booker’s YouGovBlue survey (6/8-12; 314 KY likely Democratic primary voters, or individuals who have already cast their ballot through the early voting system), Ms. McGrath, who has already raised an eye-popping $41 million and spent half of that amount, leads her Democratic challenger by only a 49-39% margin. Among respondents who say they have yet to vote but will cast their ballot, the McGrath-Booker split is even closer, 44-37%, in the former’s favor. The winner, still very likely to be Ms. McGrath irrespective of this poll’s findings, faces Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in the November election. Public Policy Polling surveyed Pennsylvania’s swing 1st Congressional District (6/10-11; 753 PA-1 registered voters, half through live phone interviews and half through text messages to cell phones) in order to test two-term Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Levittown) and Ivyland Borough Councilmember Christina Finello (D). The poll comes after the June 2nd Pennsylvania primary that found Rep. Fitzpatrick scoring a disappointing 58% against a Republican opponent who exerted little in the way of campaign effort. The PPP result breaks 40-38% in Rep. Fitzpatrick’s favor, not unlike his 51-49% re-election victory margin in 2018.
The poll questionnaire included one push question, about 80% of the Trump tax reform measure and Coronavirus bailout money going to the wealthiest 1%. Based upon Fitzpatrick primary performance, this race is moving up the Democratic target list, and the new PPP data confirms that the contest is again headed to toss-up status. Northern Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Garrison/ Covington), who attracted headlines when he questioned the size of the Coronavirus bailout legislation and demanded a roll call vote in the House, appears to be headed for a landslide victory in his June 23rd re-nomination battle. According to a WPA Intelligence survey for the Club for Growth, the conservative economic group supporting Rep. Massie (6/10-11; 411 KY-4 likely Republican primary voters), the Congressman destroys GOP attorney Todd McMurtry, 77-11%, even up from the 70-13% split the research organization found in late April.
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