Three-term Gov. Phil Scott (R) says he has not decided whether to seek a fourth two-year term next year but will not run for the US Senate. Now that Sen. Patrick Leahy (D) is signaling that he will run for re-election not only wouldn’t Gov. Scott oppose him, but he would actually vote for him.
Sen. Leahy, who will be 82 years of age before the next election, was first elected in 1974. He is currently the 13th longest-serving member of Congress and third on the all-time seniority list of those who spent their entire federal career in the Senate. He is behind only the late Sens. Strom Thurmond (R-SC) and Ted Kennedy (D-MA) in the latter category. If he were to run again in 2022 and serve the entire term, Mr. Leahy’s Senate career would last 54 years, making him the longest-tenured person to only serve in the Senate and the fourth-longest all-time tenured member of Congress. The longest ever is the late former Rep. John Dingell (D-MI) who was a member of the House for 59 years and 21 days. Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo (R) is indicating that he will formally announce his campaign for Governor next month. Clark County houses 74% of Nevada’s residents, so Sheriff Lombardo is already virtually a statewide figure. At this point, North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee is also a GOP candidate.
The Republican primary winner will face Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) in the 2022 general election. It appears Sheriff Lombardo will be favored for the GOP nomination and has the potential of making the 2022 general election a highly competitive campaign. Former state Sen. Connie Johnson (D), who was the party nominee for the US Senate in 2014 and lost the 2018 Democratic gubernatorial primary to ex-Attorney General Drew Edmondson, declared that she will return in the 2022 Governor’s race. Ms. Johnson is the first Democrat to enter the race. First-term Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) will seek a second term and is a heavy favorite for re-election.
Reports coming from Illinois suggest that four-term US Rep. Darin LaHood (R-Peoria) is contemplating running statewide for a seat on the Illinois State Supreme Court. If he were to vacate his western Illinois congressional seat, it would be highly likely that this would be the seat collapsed in redistricting. Reapportionment is causing Illinois to lose one congressional seat for the 2021 redistricting process because the state actually has fewer people today than in 2010.
Marine Corps veteran John Lira became the first credible Democrat to announce his congressional candidacy with the hope of squaring off in the general election against freshman Texas Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio). CD-23 is a politically marginal district that stretches from San Antonio all the way to El Paso. This was a 2020 open Republican district where Democrats were confident of victory, yet they lost in a bigger margin than in previous years.
The 23rd is also one of just two CDs, FL-26 being the other, that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, yet supported Donald Trump in 2020. Expect this seat to significantly improve for Rep. Gonzales in redistricting. While Wyoming at-large Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wilson/Jackson) continues to make national news, the field of her Republican primary opponents also grows. Yesterday, Sheridan County Republican Party chairman and two-time failed US Senate candidate Bryan Miller announced his congressional candidacy.
Mr. Miller is now the eighth GOP contender attempting to deny Rep. Cheney re-nomination, which plays into the incumbent’s hand. The large field in a state that does not employ a runoff system will help an embattled incumbent because even a political base that’s only a quarter the size of the voting universe could be strong enough to win a plurality election. The generic polling question is one where a survey respondent is asked whether they would vote for the Republican or Democratic House of Representatives candidate. Right now, we’re seeing the generic numbers span the ideological spectrum, which tells us the great partisan divide is still very much alive. The left-leaning pollsters are seeing big leads for Democrats, while the more conservative-oriented pollsters find the responses very tight.
From May 6 through the 18th, left-of-center pollsters Redfield & Wilton Strategies and Ipsos, both international firms, were projecting generic ballot test leads for Democrats of seven and eight points among registered US voters. Conversely, firms such as RMG Research and McLaughlin & Associates individually find the Democrats ahead only one point and the GOP up by a similar margin. Keep in mind, directly before the 2020 election, seven polling firms found voters preferring Democrats in a range of two to 11 points (average: 7), yet the Republicans gained a net of 13 seats nationally in the House contests. Former Myrtle Beach Mayor Mark McBride is now the 12th Republican to announce his candidacy against Rep. Tom Rice (R-Myrtle Beach). The large primary field would normally help a challenged incumbent win with just a plurality, but South Carolina is a runoff state. Therefore, if Rep. Rice can’t obtain majority support in the initial election, the Congressman will have to face one of these challengers in a head-to-head two-week electoral contest.
Idaho Lt. Governor Janice McGeachin (R), a business owner and former state Representative from Idaho Falls, announced that she will launch a Republican primary campaign against Gov. Brad Little (R) as he mounts an effort for a second term next year. Ms. McGeachin won a 60-40% victory in the 2018 general election after winning a five-way Republican primary with only 29% of the GOP vote.
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