Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-Winter Park) publicly declaring earlier in the week that she won’t run statewide and will seek another term in the US House has not apparently deterred Republican congressional aspirants. On the heels of her re-election declaration, retired Navy SEAL Brady Duke (R) announced his own congressional candidacy. This brings the number of GOP primary contenders already to five at this early point in the election cycle. Redistricting will be a major factor as to whether the 2022 congressional campaign in this district becomes competitive.
Before the 2020 election, 15-term Texas Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-Dallas) indicated that she was running for the last time. She has not reiterated her retirement decision since, but clearly, Democrats are presuming that she is serving her final two years in the House.
Yesterday, business consultant and former congressional candidate Shenita Cleveland (D) announced that she will run again. Four others, including the Biden 2020 campaign Texas director Jane Hamilton, have already declared candidacies. Ms. Hamilton said, however, that she will not run if Rep. Johnson, who will be 87 years of age at the beginning of the next Congress, ultimately decides to seek re-election. Cincinnati Mayor John Cranley (D), who is ineligible to seek a third term in his current position, has been raising money for a 2022 gubernatorial bid. Yesterday, he indicated that he will formally announce his statewide campaign at some point in July. Already in the Democratic primary field is Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley, who just earned the support of the powerful Ohio Association of Public School Employees union. The eventual Democratic nominee will challenge Gov. Mike DeWine (R).
Speculation continues around whether octogenarian Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley (R), who was elected the same night when Ronald Reagan first won the Presidency, will seek an eighth term next year. Most are now believing that he will run again.
Under this backdrop, the first Democrat has come forward to declare his Senatorial candidacy. Former Crawford County Supervisor and farmer Dave Muhlbauer, who lost his re-election campaign by just 95 votes, announced yesterday that he will seek the Democratic Senatorial nomination. It is likely the Iowa 2022 Senate race will be competitive. A small-sample Change Research poll (released 5/24; 302 PA likely Democratic primary voters; weighted; online) for Lt. Gov. John Fetterman’s Senatorial bid finds him leading US Rep. Conor Lamb (D-Pittsburgh) 40-21% in an early statewide Democratic primary poll. All other potential candidates have less than 10% support. Rep. Lamb has not yet declared his political intentions for 2022.
Data for Progress, conducting a more substantial statewide survey (5/7-14; 651 PA likely voters; web panel) also finds Mr. Fetterman leading in hypothetical general election pairings. Against former Republican Lt. Governor nominee Jeff Bartos, the Democratic margin is 48-38%. If former congressional nominee Sean Parnell were his general election opponent, Mr. Fetterman would begin with a slightly closer 48-40% advantage. Yesterday, Florida Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-Orlando) confirmed that she will seek re-election to her House seat in 2022 and not run statewide either for Senate or Governor. She said, “[so] I’ve decided instead of running for the U.S. Senate, I will devote my energy to helping make our party stronger.”
The Murphy move boosts fellow Orlando area Rep. Val Demings’ US Senate candidacy as she attempts to unite the Democratic Party around her budding challenge to Sen. Marco Rubio (R). Florida Rep. Val Demings (D-Orlando) looks to be formally announcing her Senate candidacy next month, so the first open seat US House contender has come forward. Attorney and Black Lives Matter activist Natalie Jackson said yesterday that she will enter the 2022 Democratic congressional primary. Last month, state Sen. Randolph Bracy (D-Orlando) expressed interest in running for Governor but said he would run for Rep. Demings’ open congressional seat if she decided to run statewide.
Redistricting is likely to change the Orlando metropolitan area substantially because of the potential open seat and the region’s huge population growth. It is likely that the state’s new congressional seat will land in this area particularly since Rep. Darren Soto’s (D-Kissimmee) 9th District is Florida’s most over-populated CD. Therefore, early candidate announcements such as Ms. Jackson’s may prove insignificant when the final 2022 congressional map is ultimately adopted. According to a just published RRH Elections survey (5/18-21; 555 NM-1 special election voters and those intending to vote; interactive voice response system and online), state Rep. Melanie Stansbury (D-Albuquerque) leads Republican state Senator Mark Moores (R-Albuquerque) by a 49-33% count as they head toward their June 1st special election. The winner serves the balance of the term that former Rep. Deb Haaland (D) won in November. She resigned the House seat to become US Interior Secretary.
According to the survey, 70% of those interviewed have already cast their ballot in the state’s early voting process. Considering that competitive 1st District Democrats have been averaging in the high 50s and low 60s, this poll favoring Ms. Stansbury appears accurate. Yesterday, two-term Rhode Island Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea formally announced that she will challenge Gov. Dan McKee in next year’s Democratic primary. The move comes as no surprise since Ms. Gorbea had long been projected as a gubernatorial candidate.
Upon then-Gov. Gina Raimondo (D) resigning to become US Commerce Secretary, Mr. McKee, then the state’s Lt. Governor, ascended to the position to serve the remainder of the current term. Further Democratic opposition is expected in what will be a highly competitive September 2022 primary battle for Gov. McKee. The eventual winner becomes the prohibitive favorite to win the open general election. Ohio State Sen. Matt Dolan (D-Chagrin Falls), the chairman of the Senate Finance Committee and co-owner of the Cleveland Indians baseball club, has formed a US Senate exploratory committee. Should he ultimately decide to enter the open statewide campaign, he would minimally face former Ohio Republican Party chair Jane Timken, ex-state Treasurer Josh Mandel, and likely author J.D. Vance, with others also contemplating candidacies.
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