New Republican gubernatorial nominee Glenn Youngkin is working behind the scenes to unite the party and his efforts appear to be succeeding. Last week former Rep. Denver Riggleman (R), who was threatening to run for Governor as an Independent, says he is deciding against doing so but would be thinking otherwise if someone else had been nominated.
Yesterday, state Sen. Amanda Chase (R-Midlothian), who finished third in the Governor’s convention and had previously stated she would run as an Independent if businessman Pete Snyder won the nomination, said yesterday that she is now “planning to” support Mr. Youngkin. Regardless of GOP unity, former Governor Terry McAuliffe (D) will begin the general election as the favorite to win in November. Yesterday, Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R), who was at the focal point of the 2020 election controversy in the state announced that he will run for re-election next year. Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan (R), now a vocal critic of former President Trump, is taking the opposite course with his retirement announcement last week.
The Secretary of State’s race will likely attract national attention considering the controversy that erupted. US Rep. Jody Hice (R-Greensboro) announced his Republican primary opposition to Mr. Raffensperger some weeks ago and has earned Mr. Trump’s endorsement. The progressive left Democracy Corps organization just completed one of their regular battleground states polls through Greenberg Research (4/27-5/3; 1,000 registered voters in identified battleground states with a 500-person Republican oversample; live interview). This survey was designed to mainly test the Trump loyalty factor within the GOP and to examine voter intensity for the midterm elections.
Not surprisingly, the survey showed that the Republican coalition, particularly the Trump loyalists, are more intense about the next election than their Democratic counterparts. The Republican coalition recorded 68% in the current most enthusiastic category, down from 84% before the 2020 election, while Democrats registered only 57% from their high of 85%. It is typical that the party scoring a big victory in the previous election tends to be less politically focused about future voting opportunities. This is a major contributing reason why the party winning the White House almost always loses congressional seats in the succeeding midterm election. State Rep. Ed Gainey (D-Pittsburgh) upset Mayor Bill Peduto with a 46-39% margin to win the Democratic Mayoral primary on Tuesday. This election is tantamount to victory in November because the Republicans did not field a candidate. Mr. Peduto is the first Mayor to lose re-election since World War II, and Mr. Gainey will become the city’s first Black chief executive.
Last week, reports surfaced that Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-Winter Park) was set to announce a US Senate challenge to incumbent Marco Rubio (R), but the Congresswoman’s spokespeople quickly denied that any such decision had been made. Now the situation has become even more confusing.
Yesterday, Politico reported that Rep. Val Demings (D-Orlando) now appears on the threshold of declaring her Senate candidacy. Which runs contrary to the Axios report last week that she would soon announce her run for Governor. If true, then it becomes probable that Rep. Murphy will seek re-election. Such developments would also likely produce a one-on-one Democratic gubernatorial nomination contest between Rep. Charlie Crist (D-St. Petersburg) and state Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried with the winner challenging Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) after the August 2022 primary. Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R), who was considering entering the open US Senate race, instead announced yesterday that he will seek re-election to his current position. Mr. LaRose was first won his statewide office in 2018 after serving two four-year terms in the Ohio Senate.
The Republican Senate field continues to feature former Ohio Republican Party chair Jane Timken and ex-state Treasurer Josh Mandel. Author J.D. Vance is expected to soon become a candidate. Rep. Mike Turner (R-Dayton) and former US Representative and 2018 US Senate nominee Jim Renacci are possible contenders. Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Warren/ Youngstown) is working to become the consensus Democratic candidate. Elijah Norton, a financial executive who is a strong Republican campaign donor, said yesterday that he will challenge Arizona GOP Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) for the party nomination next year. Mr. Norton says he will make the Congressman’s admitted ethical and campaign finance violations an issue in the race.
Before the 2020 election, Rep. Schweikert agreed to eleven House ethics violations. This was a general election campaign issue but did not deter the Congressman from winning a sixth term in office. He defeated physician Hiral Tipirneni (D), 52-48%. Retired Army officer Nate Sandvig recently declared his congressional candidacy for the Republican nomination in hopes of challenging seven-term Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Canby/Salem) next year in a western Oregon contest that could draw more attention than what we have typically seen.
In November, Rep. Schrader defeated businesswoman Amy Ryan Courser (R), 52-45%, despite his challenger spending less than $225,000 on her campaign effort. Ms. Courser has already said that she will return for a re-match in 2022. Rep. Schrader also faced Democratic primary competition from Milwaukie Mayor Mark Gamba, a race the Congressman won 69-23%. Mr. Gamba has also announced that he, too, will return. With reapportionment adding another Oregon seat, and both Reps. Schrader and bordering Congressman Peter DeFazio (D-Springfield/Eugene) desiring to have more Democrats added to their districts, the ensuing Oregon congressional campaigns are likely to become a key 2022 political focal point. Andrew Giuliani, son of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, yesterday declared his candidacy for the Republican gubernatorial nomination. Last month, Mr. Giuliani confirmed he was considering entering the race, and now he has formally announced.
Because of incumbent Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s (D) political troubles, the 2022 NY Governor’s race is drawing much more interest than usual in such a strongly Democratic state. In addition to Mr. Giuliani, US Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley/East Long Island) is in the race and has already clinched the official New York Republican Party endorsement with primary support from a majority of Republican county organizations. Former two-term Westchester County Executive and 2014 GOP gubernatorial nominee Rob Astorino has also announced his intention to run. The political situation will drastically change if Gov. Cuomo is impeached later this year, he decides not to seek a fourth term, or runs again and loses the Democratic nomination. Should the Governor run and advance into the general election, this race then becomes a competitive national 2022 gubernatorial campaign. Yesterday, physician Richard Van Dam announced a Republican primary challenge to veteran Kentucky Rep. Hal Rogers (R-Somerset), but the move could be one to gain an advantage should the former House Appropriations Committee chairman decide to retire.
Rep. Rogers will be 85 years old at the beginning of the next Congress and would start a 22nd US House term. The Congressman faced GOP primary competition in the 2020 election cycle and was re-nominated with over 91% of the vote, thus showing no signs of weakness within his own party. He won the general election from his safely Republican eastern Kentucky district with an 84-16% victory margin. |
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