Until last year’s tight 51-47% re-election victory for eight-term Congressman Michael McCaul (R-Austin), Democrats had not aggressively challenged for the seat. Yesterday, attorney Susan Hutcheson announced that she would join the burgeoning field of Democratic candidates. Already, 2018 nominee Mike Siegel and Dell Medical School assistant professor Pritesh Gandhi are in the race. Despite the closeness of the last contest, Rep. McCaul begins as a definitive favorite for re-election.
On the heels of 2016 and ’18 Republican nominee Christopher Peters saying that he won’t seek the open seat next year, another Republican took himself out of the political picture. Yesterday, state Rep. Bobby Kaufmann (R-Wilton) confirmed that he will not run for Congress next year. At this point, only Osceola Mayor Thomas Kedley is in the Republican field. Democrats feature former state Senator and Lt. Governor nominee Rita Hart. Others from both parties are expected to soon come forward to battle for the seat left open by Rep. David Loebsack’s (D-Iowa City) impending retirement.
Former US Representative, ex-state Assembly Minority Leader, and 2006 gubernatorial nominee John Faso (R) said yesterday that he will not seek a re-match with the Democrat who unseated him in November, freshman Rep. Antonio Delgado (D-Rhinebeck). The 19th District is likely to be a battleground region next year despite New York not being a competitive state at the presidential level. With Mr. Delgado winning with just over 50% (50.3) in 2018, we can expect another hard-fought political contest to develop in this eastern Upstate CD again next year.
Though Sen. Ed Markey (D) is not drawing a primary challenge from either upstart House member Seth Moulton (D-Salem) or Ayanna Presley (D-Boston) as originally speculated, he will have intra-party opposition, nonetheless. Labor lawyer Shannon Liss-Riordan yesterday announced her intention to challenge the 43-year congressional veteran, attempting to deny him re-nomination.
Ms. Liss-Riordan specializes in defending under-paid workers and has won lawsuits against American Airlines, FedEx, Harvard University, and Starbucks, among others. This will be her first run for public office, so Sen. Markey certainly begins as an overwhelming favorite to win the party nod and general election. Mr. Markey was first elected to the House in 1976 representing the Malden-Melrose area. He would win 17 consecutive re-election campaigns before claiming the 2013 special US Senate election after then-Sen. John Kerry (D) was appointed Secretary of State. Sen. Markey won a 59-36% re-election to a full term in 2014 and now stands for a second six-year commitment next year. A new Change Research poll (5/15-19; 615 Democratic likely IA Caucus attenders) for the Iowa Starting Line political blog finds that former Vice President Joe Biden’s post-announcement bump may be dissipating. According to the results, Mr. Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) are again tied for the lead at 24%. South Bend (IN) Mayor Pete Buttigieg is third with 14%, followed by Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Kamala Harris (D-CA) posting 12 and 10%, respectively.
The poll contains some good news for Sen. Warren. She tops the group with the highest “very favorable” rating, at 40% from this particular respondent sample. This survey is one more sign that the nomination race is already beginning to tighten after Mr. Biden’s fast official start to his campaign. President Trump brandishing Rep. Justin Amash (R-Cascade Township/Grand Rapids) a “loser” after the latter man became the first Republican to call for the former’s impeachment upon reading the Mueller Report, is going to be a factor in a new primary challenge set for announcement this morning. State Rep. Jim Lower (R-Greenville) will make his congressional declaration today and release a survey that gives numerical support to the claim that Rep. Amash will be vulnerable in a Republican primary.
Mr. Amash, who repeatedly has bucked House Republican leadership during his nine years of congressional service, faced serious opposition in 2014 but the Congressman defeated challenger Brian Ellis, 57-43%. He was re-elected 54-43% in the 2018 general election against activist Cathy Albro (D) who spent less than $160,000 on her campaign. Rep. Chris Collins (R-Clarence/Batavia) has drawn a serious Republican primary challenge. Mr. Collins, who won a close re-election last November despite being indicted for insider trading even as three other New York Republicans went down in defeat, is scheduled for trial before the next election.
On Friday, state Sen. Chris Jacobs (R-Erie County) announced that he will challenge Rep. Collins in next year’s Republican primary, saying that, “it’s hard for anyone to say Chris Collins is fully capable of advocating for this district.” Rep. Collins, who has not divulged his 2018 plans, responded by calling Jacobs a “never Trump Republican who supports abortion rights and taxpayer funded savings plans and legal aid for illegal immigrants.” As an aside, Mr. Jacobs’ family owns the Boston Bruins hockey franchise that is now headed for the NHL Finals. Despite Rep. David Loebsack (D-Iowa City) retiring after this term, 2016 and ’18 Republican nominee Christopher Peters announced over the weekend that he will not seek the open seat next year. Mr. Peters actually did better when spending less money. In 2016, with just over $200,000 in expenditures, but with President Trump carrying the district, Mr. Peters captured 46% of the vote. But, in 2018, with almost $900,000 spent to boost his candidacy, his vote percentage dropped to 42.
Former state Rep. C. Wesley Morgan, who won a central Kentucky state House seat in 2016 but then lost re-nomination in 2018, announced his Republican primary challenge to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. After his defeat, Mr. Morgan said he was leaving the Republican Party and endorsed the Democratic nominee for the general election, a candidate who lost by just 23 votes. Now, it appears, Mr. Morgan is returning to the GOP to launch a political suicide effort against Sen. McConnell who was first elected in 1984 and has risen to the Senate’s top position.
No major Democrat has yet filed to oppose the Majority Leader, but we can expect to see some action after the Kentucky Governor’s race comes to a close in November. After looking like he would enter the presidential campaign last week, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio released an announcement video yesterday making him the 24th Democratic presidential candidate for the 2020 election cycle. His announcement centered around being the candidate for “working families,” and cited the $15 minimum wage, a free pre-K school program, a comprehensive healthcare program that especially covers mental health, and paid sick leave.
Mayor de Blasio is starting late, and he is a very long shot to even move into the upper tier of candidates. It is doubtful he can qualify for the June 26-27th debate stage at this point, and even participating in the late July Detroit debate could be in question. |
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