Both Monmouth University and Harris X (polling for the Hill Newspaper) conducted national Democratic presidential primary polls during the same period and arrived at virtually identical results.
Monmouth’s small sample poll (5/16-20; 334 US registered voters likely to vote in their respective Democratic primary) found former Vice President Joe Biden leading Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) by a 33-15% margin with Sens. Kamala Harris (D-CA), Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Mayor Pete Buttigieg, ex-Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX), and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) following with 11, 10, 6, 4, and 3%, respectively. Harris X (5/17-18; 448 US registered voters likely to vote in their respective Democratic primary) finds Biden’s advantage over Sanders to be an almost identical 33-14%. They see a different second tier, however. Harris finds their order as Warren, Buttigieg, Harris, and O’Rourke at 8, 6, 6, and 5%. As reported yesterday, Florida Atlantic University polled the Sunshine State Democratic electorate (5/16-19; 1,007 FL registered voters; 403 likely FL Democratic primary voters) for the impending March 17th Democratic presidential primary. An unnoticed statistic in that poll showed that Miramar (FL) Mayor Wayne Messam is at 0% even in his own state.
But, he is not alone. Also, at 0% in this poll are Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA), New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, Colorado former Gov. John Hickenlooper, author Marianne Williamson, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI), and Gov. Jay Inslee (D-WA). It is also clear that Mayor Messam has not achieved the early media boost like his mayoral colleague, Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, IN. Mr. Messam is quick to remind all that South Bend is smaller than Miramar when questioned about his qualifications to be President. Former state Senator and 2018 Lt. Governor nominee Rita Hart (D) is fast becoming a consensus 2nd District Democratic candidate to replace retiring Rep. David Loebsack (D-Iowa City). In the past two days, state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Coralville), who was himself considering the congressional race, publicly endorsed Ms. Hart, as did state Rep. Wes Breckinridge (D-Newton). The latter man was also said to be contemplating becoming a congressional candidate.
Since President Trump carried this usually reliable Democratic congressional district, 49-45% in 2016, this open seat could become competitive particularly in a year with Mr. Trump returning to the ballot. So far, however, only Osceola Mayor Thomas Kedley has announced for the Republican nomination, but others are expected to join what should be a large candidate field. Former US Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R) yesterday said he would decide this summer whether to seek a re-match with freshman Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-Miami), the woman who unseated him 51-49% in the November election. The statement suggests that the former Congressman may be moving closer to again running in a federal race. Previous reports suggested he was making plans to run for Mayor of Miami-Dade County.
In contrast to several other defeated Republican former Congressmen, ex-Rep. Randy Hultgren says it is “unlikely” that he will run again in 2020 in order to re-claim his former northern Illinois district. In November, Mr. Hultgren lost his bid for a fifth term to current freshman Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville), 52-48%.
At this point, state Senator and frequent federal candidate Jim Oberweis (R-North Aurora) has announced his congressional candidacy along with three minor candidates. In the background, however, is state Sen. Sue Rezin (R-Morris), who appears to be taking steps toward constructing a congressional campaign apparatus. In what is usually a reliable seat for the GOP, we can again expect a highly competitive campaign to ensue. Florida Atlantic University polled the Sunshine State Democratic electorate (5/16-19; 1,007 FL registered voters; 403 likely FL Democratic primary voters) and finds former Vice President Joe Biden again establishing a solid advantage over the rest of the candidate field. Here, he leads Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), 39-12-12%, with South Bend (IN) Mayor Pete Buttigieg and California Sen. Kamala Harris trailing with 9 and 7%, respectively. Florida, with 219 first ballot votes, is the fourth largest voting entity in the Democratic nomination process. The state’s electorate, along with those in Arizona and Illinois, will vote on March 17th.
Pennsylvania state Rep. Fred Keller (R-Mifflinburg) easily defeated Democrat Marc Friedenberg last night in the battle to succeed resigned-Rep. Tom Marino (R-Williamsport). Mr. Keller’s victory margin was 68-32%, a stronger performance than both President Trump and Rep. Marino enjoyed in their most recent elections in the district. More than 130,000 people voted in the special election, which was a strong number considering the outcome never seemed in doubt. Mr. Keller holding this seat for the GOP means the House party division is now 235 Democrats; 198 Republicans; and 2 vacancies that will both be filled on September 10th (NC-3; NC-9).
Attorney General Andy Beshear won the Democratic gubernatorial nomination last night on the strength of his performance in the Louisville area and western Kentucky, which off-set his being blown out in the eastern part of the state. Mr. Beshear defeated state House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins (D-Sandy Hook), and former state Auditor Adam Edelen, 38-32-28%.
Gov. Matt Bevin (R), who has been suffering from poor job approval ratings, won re-nomination with just over 52% of the vote, a very weak performance within his own party base. Like AG Beshear, Gov. Bevin was anemic in the eastern part of the state. Therefore, the region east of Frankfort and Lexington should be an interesting one since neither general election nominee performed well there. To the surprise of very few, freshman Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) has officially eschewed overtures that he challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R), and announced he will run for re-election to his 2nd District House seat.
Mr. Golden was elected through the state’s controversial Ranked Choice Voting system, an instant run-off that gives people who supported losing candidates extra votes. The original election count found Golden losing to then-Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R) by two percentage points, but the Congressman had only plurality support. When the Ranked Choice votes were added to the mix, from those voting only for the losing candidates, Mr. Golden was able to cobble together a majority coalition. San Joaquin County Supervisor Bob Elliott (R-Tracy), a retired Army Colonel, was already an announced candidate for state Senate. Yesterday, however, he switched gears and instead will file to oppose freshman US Rep. Josh Harder (D-Turlock). Also, in the GOP congressional race is Turlock former City Councilman Ted Howze (R), but he ran in 2018 and received only 15% in the jungle primary. Two other minor candidates have declared, but it appears that Mr. Elliott would be the strongest opponent for Rep. Harder in the general election at this point in time.
|
The Rundown BlogLearn more about the candidates running in key elections across the United States. Archives
April 2024
Categories
All
|
|
BIPAC© 2022 BIPAC. All rights reserved
|