Another potential candidate is apparently coming onto the scene. Former Alaska Senator and ex-presidential candidate Mike Gravel, at 88 years old, says he will likely enter the Democratic presidential race. He wants to add his voice to the debate in order to highlight what he calls American imperialism.
With the Democratic rules requiring candidates to have 65,000 donors and at least 1% support in specific polls to earn a podium in the televised debates, it is very doubtful that Gravel could qualify even if he has no designs on competing to win. A new Emerson College Poll (3/7-10; 743 MI registered voters) likely provided first-term Michigan Sen. Gary Peters (D) with a surprise. According to their new survey, John James, a Republican manufacturing company owner and retired Army Ranger, has already pulled to within one point of Sen. Peters, 44-43%. Emerson also tested the presidential campaign and found all Democrats leading President Trump in Michigan.
The result could be accurate. Mr. James came within a 52-46% margin in his loss to Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) back in 2018, which was much closer than projected particularly in a year that proved highly successful for Michigan Democrats. Early signs suggest that this could become a top tier Senate race. National Democrats were unsuccessful in recruiting their top Senatorial prospect to challenge incumbent Republican Cory Gardner when ex-Gov. John Hickenlooper decided to enter the presidential campaign.
At this point their two top contenders appear to be former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff who has lost races for both the US Senate and House, and ex-state Sen. Mike Johnston who finished a distant third in the 2018 gubernatorial primary. Yesterday, reports began surfacing that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee leadership is attempting to recruit former US Attorney John Walsh, who served in the Obama Administration. Mr. Walsh confirms that he is considering the Senate campaign. Sen. Gardner is viewed as vulnerable because of Colorado’s leftward shift in recent elections. But, the quality of challenge candidates so far may be less that what the Democrats need to unseat him. Already, Arizona Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-Peoria) has won two elections for the House, one in a special election, and the other in the regular 2018 cycle. Both times she defeated physician Hiral Tipirneni in campaigns that were closer than previous voter history would have typically projected.
Now, a new candidate is emerging. Yesterday, former Litchfield Park City Councilman Bob Musselwhite (D) said he plans to challenge Rep. Lesko next year. It is unclear if Dr. Tipirneni will make a third attempt, but publicly stated she is not ruling out challenging Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills/Scottsdale) in the adjacent 6th CD. In any event, with a full term to ensconce herself in what should be a reliable Republican district, the new Congresswoman will become a clear favorite for re-election. Despite Sen. Mark Warner (D) being re-elected in a close 2014 election, he does not appear vulnerable heading into 2020. Media reports are suggesting that the National Republican Senatorial Committee leadership is attempting to recruit defeated Rep. Scott Taylor (R-Virginia Beach) into the race against the two-term incumbent. Mr. Taylor purports to be considering the Senate campaign but, with Virginia trending decidedly leftward, a race against Sen. Warner will not likely end well for any Republican.
One of the surprise results last November was veteran Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Austin) winning re-election with only a 51-47% victory margin against under-funded opponent, Michael Siegel. Soon after the election, Mr. Siegel announced that he would seek a re-match, but now it looks like he will have to fight for the Democratic nomination. Yesterday, Dell Medical School assistant professor Pritesh Gandhi announced that he, too, will run to challenge Rep. McCaul.
The 10th typically performs as a safe Republican seat, but with the Austin area growing and becoming even more liberal, the trends in this CD are beginning to reflect the evolving population. Therefore, closer political campaigns can be expected. Reports in the New York Post have drawn the conclusion that New York City Councilman Ritchie Torres (D) has made the decision to challenge veteran Rep. Jose Serrano (D-Bronx) in next year’s Democratic primary. Counting his time in the state legislature, Rep. Serrano has represented his portion of the Bronx for what will be 46 years come the next election. He was originally elected to Congress in 1990 and has had little in the way of challenges ever since.
For his part, Councilman Torres is not denying the Post story, but says he will make his plans clear at a later date. As we reported yesterday, Emerson College conducted a survey of Wisconsin voters, and now they have released their general election pairings. The Democratic primary results projected Sen. Bernie Sanders to be holding a 39-24% advantage over former Vice President Joe Biden.
The general election sample (3/15-17; 775 WI likely voters) pits President Trump individually against the Democratic field. Though the President trails in virtually all settings, he is within the polling margin of error against everyone but Mr. Biden. When paired with the former Vice President, Mr. Trump trails 51-44%. Sen. Sanders leads him by just two percentage points, 48-46%. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) is up by a larger 52-48%, while Beto O’Rourke is staked to a 51-49% edge. The President breaks even with both Sens. Kamala Harris (D-CA) and Amy Klobuchar (D-MN). Former Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke just eclipsed Sen. Bernie Sanders’ record one-day post-announcement fundraising haul. Back in February, Sen. Sanders raised $5.9 million in the 24-hour period after he became an official candidate. Late last week, Mr. O’Rourke officially announced his candidacy and brought in $6.1 million in the first 24 hours of his new campaign.
It appears evident that the former Congressman will be able to continue the torrid fundraising pace he engendered in his unsuccessful US Senate race where he attracted over $80 million in contributions for his Lone Star State contest. Two Democratic Congressmen are reportedly readying to enter their respective state’s US Senate races.
After his ex-wife, Kate Gallego, was elected Phoenix Mayor last week, Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) is reportedly prepping his political operation for a Senate announcement in early April. The timing allows Mayor-Elect Gallego to conduct her inauguration festivities without the distraction of the Senate announcement, and the timing of beginning the Congressman’s statewide campaign at the start of a new finance period is optimum. The first quarter filing deadline is March 31st. In Texas, the Democrats may be on the cusp of successfully recruiting their second choice to challenge Sen. John Cornyn (R). The Texas Monthly magazine is reporting that Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio) has privately made the decision to run statewide next year. The party leaders’ first choice was former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-El Paso), but he of course entered the presidential contest. |
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