The open 2020 Montana Governor’s race is beginning to attract significant attention. On Friday, state Sen. Al Olszewski (R-Kalispell) announced that he will enter the open Governor’s race, joining Republican candidates Tim Fox, the state’s Attorney General, and Secretary of State Corey Stapleton. Sen. Olszewski placed fourth in a field of four Republican US Senate candidates in 2018, attracting 19% of the vote.
No Democrat has yet announced, but Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney (D) and Helena Mayor Wilmot Collins (D) are expected to make a run. Gov. Steve Bullock (D), who may soon announce a presidential bid, is ineligible to seek a third term. Fox News went into the field (3/17-20; 1,002 US registered voters; approximately 410 likely Democratic primary voters) to test the coming presidential race and confirmed much of what other pollsters are finding. President Trump continues to have upside down approval ratings, 46:51% favorable to unfavorable in this survey, and, among Democrats, former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) continue to pull away from the pack.
In this study, Mr. Biden leads Sen. Sanders, 31-23%, with Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) and ex-Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) trailing with 8% apiece. No other candidate even reaches 5% according to the Fox data. Overall, this poll suggests the electorate is trending leftward on key issues, which is bad news for President Trump and the GOP especially when considering that the Fox respondent universe in this particular poll appears to skew Republican. Former state Sen. Mike Delph (R), who had previously considered several runs for US Senate but then lost his seat in the state legislature last November, is reportedly considering either a primary challenge to Rep. Susan Brooks (R-Carmel) or entering an open seat contest. Speculation is brisk that Rep. Brooks may challenge Attorney General Curtis Hill (R) in the GOP primary or if the seat is open. Mr. Hill faces sexual harassment accusations and disciplinary proceedings but has not resigned.
As predicted in the New York Post last week, New York City Councilman Ritchie Torres has indeed announced his intention to challenge veteran Rep. Jose Serrano (D-Bronx) in next year’s Democratic primary. This, like other budding New York City Democratic primary challenges, must be taken seriously. NY-15 is one of the safest Democratic districts in the country.
Mr. Serrano, 75 years of age, was first elected to the House in 1990, after serving in the NY state Assembly since 1975. The Congressman has averaged 91.6% of the general election vote since the districts were re-drawn in 2011. President Trump managed to draw just 4.9% here in the 2016 national election. Rep. Serrano was last challenged in the Democratic primary in 2016 when he received 89.2% of the vote. Mr. Torres, 31, was first elected to the City Council in 2013. Former Indiana Health Commissioner and congressional candidate Woody Myers (D) is reportedly considering entering the Governor’s race. Democrats struck out in trying to recruit defeated Sen. Joe Donnelly to challenge Gov. Eric Holcomb (R), so they are in need of a candidate to challenge the first term incumbent. Indiana went hard for President Trump (57-38%) and with Sen. Mike Braun (R) unseating Mr. Donnelly in 2018, recruiting a viable Democratic gubernatorial challenger is no easy task.
A new Public Policy Polling company Iowa Democratic presidential caucus poll (3/14-16; 678 IA likely Democratic Caucus participants) finds former Vice President Joe Biden posting a relatively strong 29-15% lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT). The Iowa Caucus is the first voting stop on the Democratic nomination calendar and is scheduled for February 3, 2020.
The PPP results represent a significant change from the last Iowa poll, which Selzer & Company conducted for the Des Moines Register (3/3-6; 401 IA likely Democratic Caucus participants). It projected that Messrs. Biden and Sanders were virtually tied with the former holding only a 27-25% edge. PPP forecasts all other candidates in single-digits with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) attracting 8%, ex-Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) at 7%, Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) tallying 6%, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) registering 5%, and New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker drawing 4% support. Before the 2016 election there was much public speculation about whether Sen. Joe Manchin (D) would run to re-claim his former job as West Virginia’s Governor. He, of course, didn’t and businessman Jim Justice won the position as a Democrat but then changed parties less than a year after winning the general election. Now, Gov. Justice is seeking re-election as a Republican.
This week, more rumors began to surface that Sen. Manchin is again apparently weighing the option of running for Governor, this time because he strongly opposes Gov. Justice. This could be the start of another long political song and dance that becomes a false alarm, but clearly Sen. Manchin would be the best candidates the Democrats could field. On the other hand, he will be under enormous national political pressure from the Democratic establishment to remain in the Senate. West Virginia requires special elections to fill Senate vacancies, so the chances of Republicans picking up the seat in an open contest would be quite high if Mr. Manchin were to be elected Governor. Investment banker Frank Pallotta (R) says he is going to soon form a congressional exploratory committee comprised of “industry leaders and experts” to help him assess his chances of unseating two-term Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff) next year.
Mr. Gottheimer unseated veteran Republican Rep. Scott Garrett in 2016 and was easily re-elected in November with 56.2% of the vote. The 5th District has typically performed as a Republican seat until 2016, so the GOP looking to target this district is realistic, especially if they have a candidate with financial wherewithal. A new CNN national presidential poll (conducted by SSRS; 3-14-17; 1,003 US adults; 456 Democratic likely primary voters; 448 Republican likely primary voters) reports similar results to other recent surveys. According to this data, former Vice President Joe Biden carries a 28-20% lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) with Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) and former US Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) placing third and fourth with 12 and 11%, respectively. No other candidate reaches double-digits, which is also highly consistent with other publicly released data.
The fact that no one, including Mr. Biden, ever breaks 30% in a national poll suggests that this race could become wide open. Sen. Harris and ex-Rep. O’Rourke showing increased strength as time passes would be key to turning this contest into a free-for-all. Former Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, who came very close to winning the 2018 Florida Governor’s race, has decided not to run for President. Right after his statewide loss, support was mounting for him to enter the national campaign, similar to how people began coalescing around ex-Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX). Instead, Mr. Gillum says he is going to devote his time to an aggressive voter registration project in his home state of Florida in an attempt to help Democrats win more elections there.
|
The Rundown BlogLearn more about the candidates running in key elections across the United States. Archives
April 2024
Categories
All
|
|
BIPAC© 2022 BIPAC. All rights reserved
|