Yesterday, Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Youngstown) again confirmed that he is considering entering the presidential campaign but also is not abandoning his congressional post. Rep. Ryan said if he does decide to enter the presidential race he will continue to file for re-election. Such a move is consistent with Ohio election law that allows candidates to run simultaneously for more than one office.
Remington Research, polling for gubernatorial candidate Ralph Abraham (R), released their latest data for the impending 2019 Governor’s race featuring incumbent John Bel Edwards (D) seeking re-election. The new poll (3/13-14; 1464 LA likely voters; 732 self-identified Democratic voters) finds Gov. Edwards holding a 44-33-10% jungle primary lead over Rep. Abraham (R-Alto/ Monroe) and developer Eddie Rispone (R), respectively.
If no candidate receives a majority vote in the October 12th primary, the top two finishers would face each other in the general election on November 16th. In the head-to-head pairings, Gov. Edwards would top Rep. Abraham, 47-45%, and Mr. Rispone, 48-42%. The results obviously indicate that a very close race could develop later this year.
In an interesting aside, the pollsters asked Democratic voters if they would definitely support Gov. Edwards, consider voting for another Democrat, or are not planning to support any Democratic gubernatorial candidate. The results: 59% reported definitely backing Mr. Edwards, with 19% saying they are not planning to vote Democratic. An additional 17% said they would consider voting for a Democrat other than Gov. Edwards.
Two-term Democratic Sen. Tom Udall (D) yesterday announced via video message from his home that he will not seek a third term next year but promises to remain active in the political process. The move is unforeseen as Sen. Udall looked to be a lock for re-election. Democrats will be favored to hold the seat, but a Republican making this open contest competitive is certainly within the realm of possibility.
A surprising announcement came from the Grand Canyon State yesterday afternoon as Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) said that he will not run for the Senate next year. The move is a boon to Democrats, as Mr. Gallego acknowledged, because a tough late August primary would have made defeating Sen. Martha McSally (R) much more difficult.
Retired astronaut Mark Kelly now appears to have a clear shot at the Democratic nomination even at this early date, more than a year before the candidate filing deadline. Already raising $3 million for his statewide effort, Rep. Gallego saw that a primary confrontation with Mr. Kelly might well end in a loss for himself, which would mean the end of his congressional career. The Arizona Senate seat may have just moved to number one on the national Democratic target list.
Announcing that he has contracted Parkinson’s Disease, 11-term New York Rep. Jose Serrano (D-Bronx) said yesterday that he will not seek re-election. Counting his time in the legislature, Mr. Serrano has been in elective office consecutively since 1975. Last week, New York City Councilman Ritchie Torres (D) announced that he would run for Congress, and we can be assured he will now have a lot of company in the Democratic primary.
The majority Hispanic 15th District captures the heart of the Bronx borough, and is the most anti-Trump district in the company. The President received only 4.9% of the vote here in 2016. Clearly, it will continue to remain in the Democratic column after the next election.
Former Rep. Karen Handel (R-Roswell), who lost her seat to current Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Marietta) by one percentage point, will return for a potential re-match next year, she announced yesterday. First, however, she will have to get past Republican primary opponent Brandon Beach, an Alpharetta state Senator, who announced his intention to run before the end of last year. Expect the 6th District to be a major target for the GOP next year.
Joseph Kosper, the Democratic nominee who came within 50-48% of winning a Texas open seat that, heretofore, had been solidly Republican, was reportedly deciding whether to seek a re-match with freshman Rep. Chip Roy (R-Austin) or challenging Sen. John Cornyn (R). Yesterday, he unpredictably indicated that he will not be a candidate for any office.
The 21st should remain in Republican hands but expect Texas Democrats to field a credible candidate and attempt to make a strong run here again in 2020 even without having Mr. Kosper on the ballot.
A new small-sample Emerson College survey of the Iowa Democratic Caucus (3/21-24; 249 IA likely Democratic Caucus participants) uncovers several surprising data points. First, former Vice President Joe Biden’s Iowa lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) has dropped to just one percentage point, 25-24%.
Second, and perhaps the biggest surprise, is South Bend, IN Mayor Pete Buttigieg moving all the way from obscurity into third place with 11% preference, surpassing Sens. Kamala Harris (D-CA) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), who post 10 and 9%, respectively. A third unexpected result is former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) dropping all the way to seventh place with just 5% support.
Because the sample size is extremely small, the error factor in this particular poll is high so more data is needed to verify these conclusions.
In November, businessman Sean Casten defeated veteran Rep. Peter Roskam (R) by a 54-46% margin. Late last week it was reported that GOP former state Sen. Karen McConnaughay is considering entering the 2020 race. Whether or not Ms. McConnaughay runs is clearly undecided, but individuals such as she analyzing their chances is a relatively clear indication that former Rep. Roskam will not be seeking a re-match.
Investment executive John Chrin (R), who lost to Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Moosic/Scranton) 55-45% in November, has filed a 2020 FEC campaign committee. It appears Mr. Chrin is gearing up to run again, but there is speculation that he could hop over to the 7th District where freshman Rep. Susan Wild (D-Allentown) will be defending her seat for the first time. The 7th District is more suited to Mr. Chrin’s political base, but the 8th is more Republican and President Trump will likely carry the latter CD. Either way, it is probable we will see Mr. Chrin returning to the political wars in 2020.
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