New York ex-Rep. Claudia Tenney (R), who lost her seat in November after one term, says she is looking at all future political options including attempting to force a re-match with freshman Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D-Utica). The 2018 campaign was bitter and ended in a close 50.0-48.3% Brindisi victory.
Ms. Tenney made several controversial comments during her one term in the House that hurt her favorability index. NY-22 is now the strongest Trump seat that a Democrat holds. The President carried the seat 55-39% suggesting that Ms. Tenney needs to strengthen her appeal among Republicans. Broome County District Attorney Stephen Cornwell has already announced his candidacy, so if Ms. Tenney decides to make a return appearance, she will likely have GOP primary opposition. Ever since Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Kailua) announced for President, things have not gone well for her at home. Soon after her presidential move, state Sen. Kai Kahele (D-Hilo) announced for her congressional seat. Should Ms. Gabbard not fare well in the presidential race she will now face a serious re-nomination challenge in the Democratic primary.
On Friday, Democratic former Governor Ben Cayetano announced his endorsement of Sen. Kahele. Previously, two other Democratic ex-Governors, Neil Abercrombie and John Waihee, also endorsed the challenger. Rep. Gabbard has consistently absorbed attacks from both the left and right. She also created major controversy when she met with Syrian dictator Bashar Hafez al-Assad. Emerson College conducted a survey of the Wisconsin Democratic electorate, the first reported study since Beto O’Rourke joined the field of candidates.
According to the small-sample poll (3/15-17; 324 WI likely Democratic primary voters) Sen. Bernie Sanders (I/D-VT) opens with a large lead over former Vice President Joe Biden and the rest of the field. Here, Sen. Sanders captures 39% of the Democratic vote as compared to only 24% for Mr. Biden. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren may have hit her highest number of any poll so far in the early cycle. She posted 14% for third place. Mr. O’Rourke was next with 6%. Neighboring Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) recorded a disappointing 4%. In 2016, Sen. Sanders scored a 57-43% win over Hillary Clinton, making Wisconsin one of his strongest states. The 2020 Badger State primary is scheduled for April 7th. WPA Intelligence conducted a new poll of Alabama Republicans (3/10-12; 501 AL Republican primary voters) to test how former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore, who lost the 2017 special election to Sen. Doug Jones (D), would fare against Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Huntsville). Mr. Moore defeated Rep. Brooks and eight other candidates including appointed Sen. Luther Strange (R) for the special GOP Senate nomination.
According to the WPA results, Mr. Brooks would cruise to the Senate nomination in a one-on-one battle with former Justice Moore. The numbers would break 52-32% in Brooks’ favor. At this point, Mr. Brooks is saying he does not intend to run for the Senate. Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-Mobile) is in the race, but WPA numbers featuring him were not released. Mr. Moore says he is considering making another run even though his 2017 attempt ended in political disaster. Montana Gov. Steve Bullock (D), serving his second and final term as the state’s chief executive, is in Iowa testing the presidential waters. Still, questions abound, however, as to whether he might turn away from his national ambition and instead challenge Sen. Steve Daines (R) next year.
Gov. Bullock has previously indicated his disinclination toward challenging the first-term Republican Senator, but he always seemed to leave the door to such a possibility open a crack. Yesterday, he closed off his Senate option, telling the news media that he has “ruled out” running against Sen. Daines next year. He is still a potential presidential candidate and appears leaning toward entering the national Democratic campaign. Yesterday, former Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke is now an official Democratic presidential candidate. His announcement was made in conjunction with a campaign trip to Iowa, site of the nation’s first caucus vote.
Mr. O’Rourke became a political star despite losing his US Senate campaign to incumbent Ted Cruz (R) last November. Recently, however, he has dropped into single-digits in national presidential polling and is typically battling Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) for fourth place behind former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-D/VT) and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA). Though O’Rourke has potential to become a first-tier candidate, he will have to show momentum early. The Texas primary, coming on March 3rd of next year, with its 228 elected delegates (the second largest contingent from any state) will become critical in defining Mr. O’Rourke’s chances for the nomination. Eastern Ohio Congressman Tim Ryan (D-Youngstown), who has been considered as an outlier presidential candidate, maintained again a day ago that he may enter the national race and will decide within the next several weeks. Mr. Ryan has toyed before with running for Governor, Lt. Governor, and US Senate, without pulling the trigger. He did, however, challenge Rep. Nancy Pelosi for the Democratic Leader position in 2016 and lost badly, attracting just 1/3 support among his party colleagues.
Rep. Ryan would have little to no chance of winning the party nomination, but he might be a factor in the Buckeye State primary that is scheduled for March 10, 2020. He also has the advantage, under Ohio election law, of being able to run simultaneously for President and re-election to his House seat. Rep. Ruben Gallego’s (D-Phoenix) ex-wife, former City Councilwoman Kate Gallego, won the special Phoenix Mayoral election over fellow Democrat Daniel Valenzuela on Tuesday night. Her strong 58% victory makes it more likely that Rep. Gallego will soon announce his US Senate candidacy.
Though the two are divorced, the Gallegos’ are still political allies, and the Congressman put his own statewide plans on hold until his ex-wife’s race was complete. With a strong Gallego win, the Congressman’s chances of competing against astronaut Mark Kelly for the Democratic Senatorial nomination appear to have improved. We can soon expect to see a Gallego for Senate campaign being formed. The eventual Democratic winner will face appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R) in the special general election to run concurrently with the 2020 election calendar. A late Emerson College New Hampshire poll (2/21-22; 910 NH registered voters) projected Gov. Chris Sununu (R) and Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) to be locked in a 44% tie if the two were to oppose each other next year.
Previously, Gov. Sununu had shown no interest in a Senate race, but that may be changing. When asked about the possibility of challenging Sen. Shaheen instead of seeking a third term as Governor, Mr. Sununu simply indicated that he isn’t “ruling anything out.” Clearly, the Governor would be the GOP’s top recruitment target to challenge the two-term Senator and former Governor. Ms. Shaheen has already announced that she will run for a third term next year. With several candidates already announcing their candidacies against indicted Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-Alpine), one major political figure just declared that he is not going to run. Former state Senator Joel Anderson (R), who was ineligible to seek a third term under California’s term limits law, said yesterday that he will not run for Congress, and fully supports Rep. Hunter.
Mr. Hunter is scheduled for federal trial in September on campaign finance charges. If found guilty, a special election will be scheduled in this sprawling San Diego County District that also includes a sliver of Riverside County. |
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