Montana: New Poll Gives Sen. Tester Small Leads: The Political Company, a Montana based survey research firm, just released hypothetical numbers for the state’s upcoming 2024 Senate race, sure to be one of the top such contests in the country. The poll (1/30-2/1; 534 MT likely general election voters; live interview & text) finds Sen. Jon Tester (D), who has yet to announce his 2024 political intentions, either leading or tied with what would presumably be his top three potential challengers.
The Senator’s strongest opponent would be Gov. Greg Gianforte (R), who would begin in a 45-45% ballot test tie with Sen. Tester according to the new data. Sen. Tester would post small leads against Reps. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) and Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish). Opposite Rep. Rosendale, the Senator’s advantage would be 45-40%, while he would fare slightly better against Rep. Zinke at 46-40%. None of the three has yet announced they will run for Senate, but Rep. Rosendale is reportedly the most likely to launch a campaign. Gov. Gianforte is also on the ballot for re-election in 2024. Clearly the state has moved to the right since Sen. Tester defeated Mr. Rosendale 50-47% in 2018. The fact that he is well below 50% against all three men is a clear signal that he will be in a dogfight for re-election should he seek a fourth term. The Senator said he will make his decision about running again before the end of March. CA-13: Adam Gray (D) Files 2024 Committee with FEC: California former state Assemblyman Adam Gray (D), who lost the second closest 2022 congressional election – a 565 vote result opposite now freshman-Rep. John Duarte (R-Modesto) – has filed a new 2024 committee with the Federal Election Commission. Prior to this action, Mr. Gray had said little about running again.
Viewed as the clear favorite at the beginning of the ’22 race, Mr. Gray failed to win the seat, and even placed behind Mr. Duarte in the June jungle primary. On paper, the new 13th District favors the Democrats. The FiveThirtyEight organization rates the seat D+7, while Dave’s Redistricting App scores the partisan lean as 53.7D – 43.9R. At this point, Democrats Phil Arballo, a former two-time congressional contender, retired Army Colonel Brad Boyd, and educator Angelina Rosario Sigala have all declared their candidacies. Regardless of who becomes the Democratic finalist, this race will be a top tier national Democratic conversion target. TX-28: New Rep. Cuellar (D) Challenger Emerges: Army veteran Kyle Sinclair (R), who lost 68-32% against Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio) in Texas’ 20th District last November, announced he is moving to the 28th District to challenge veteran Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo). The Congressman’s most serious vulnerability is in the Democratic primary, however, as illustrated in his 2022 victorious race for renomination decided in a May runoff by just 311 votes. We can expect to see more political action next year in this CD that stretches from San Antonio to the Mexican border.
Louisiana: Dem Chair Won’t Run: Though candidate filing for the Louisiana Governor’s race does not close until August 10th, the open race field is already winnowing. At the end of last week, Louisiana Democratic Party chair Kate Bernhardt announced that she will not become a gubernatorial candidate after considering the possibility of entering. The top candidates appear to be Attorney General Jeff Landry (R), state Treasurer John Schroder (R), and state Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson (D). Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. The state’s jungle primary is October 14, 2023, with a runoff on November 18th if no contender receives majority support in the first election.
North Carolina: State Supremes Schedule Action: The North Carolina state Supreme Court is sending clear signals to the US Supreme Court over the state’s election and redistricting law challenges. Before departing at the end of their term in January, the former NC Supreme Court panel, with a 4D-3R majority, declared the state Senate map a partisan gerrymander and overturned the NC voter identification law. On Friday, the new 5R-2D court announced it will hear arguments to overturn those rulings in the middle of March.
The move is significant since SCOTUS is considering the North Carolina political gerrymandering case and will rule before July 1st. The state court, however, potentially taking action on similar cases before the US Supreme Court ultimately decides, could allow the latter panel simply to yield to the state’s decisions. At the end of the process and regardless of which court sets the final parameters, it is probable that we will see wholescale redistricting of the North Carolina political boundaries before the 2024 election. Houston: Rep. Jackson Lee Considering Mayor’s Race: Reports are emanating from Houston that veteran US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) is conducting citywide polling to determine her chances in the open Mayor’s race scheduled for November of this year. Incumbent Sylvester Turner (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.
At this point the leading contender appears to be state Sen. John Whitmire (D), who was first elected to the legislature in 1972. He served ten years in the state House of Representatives before moving to the state Senate in 1982. He is Texas’ longest-serving state Senator. If no candidate receives majority support on November 7th, a runoff between the top two finishers will be scheduled. The Mayor’s race is non-partisan in that candidates’ party affiliations are not listed on the ballot. Other major candidates are City Councilman Robert Gallegos, former City Councilwoman and 2020 US Senate candidate Amanda Edwards, and Houston Metro Board Member Chris Hollins. Gov. Brian Kemp: Expanding Federal PAC: Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) has hired two national fundraisers to expand his federal political action committee’s financial base. Some believe his strengthening the Hardworking Americans PAC is a prelude for Kemp joining the presidential campaign, but it could also bring long term benefits for a potential US Senate run when Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) next comes in-cycle in 2026. Gov. Kemp was re-elected to a second term over Stacey Abrams (D) with a 53-46% victory margin. He is ineligible to again run for his current position in the 2026 election.
New Jersey: Local Democrat to Primary Sen. Menendez: Two-term Roselle Park Mayor Joe Signorello yesterday announced that he will launch a Democratic primary challenge to Sen. Bob Menendez in the New Jersey June 2024 primary election. Sen. Menendez is not expected to have much trouble winning renomination and re-election next year, but he now has at least one opponent who attracts significant media attention even though he is a small town mayor. Roselle Park is a city of approximately 14,000 people within populous Union County.
OR-5: Freshman Republican Gets First Opponent: Oregon freshman Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Happy Valley) has drawn her first 2024 opponent. Former congressional aide and political consultant Kevin Easton (D), who originally ran for the state’s new 6th District in 2022 only to suspend his campaign prior to the Democratic primary, announced that he will run in the 5th District in 2024.
In November, Ms. Chavez-DeRemer defeated former local California elected official Jamie McLeod-Skinner (D), 51-49%, to convert the new 5th District to the Republicans after the latter woman unseated veteran Rep. Kurt Schrader (D) in the May Democratic primary. After losing the primary, Mr. Schrader correctly predicted the seat would go Republican in the general election because he claimed Ms. McLeod-Skinner is well to the left of the district’s electorate. Chicago: More Polling Fluctuation: We have covered several polls of the upcoming Chicago Mayor’s campaign, and one more was released yesterday. This latest survey finds US Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D-Chicago) rebounding from some previous polls that were showing him trending downward. The new Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategies survey conducted for four local Chicago news outlets (1/31-2/3; 625 Chicago likely primary voters; live interview) returns Rep. Garcia to the lead with 20% support followed by former Chicago Schools CEO Paul Vallas at 18%, and Mayor Lori Lightfoot placing a close third with 17%.
The non-partisan primary is scheduled for February 28th, and since it is clear no candidate will get close to the 50% mark, the top two finishers will advance to an April 4th primary. The polling is so tight that any two of the top five candidates could qualify for the April election. Should she make the runoff, the outlook for the secondary election is poor for Mayor Lightfoot, however. With more than 80% of voters first choosing someone other than the incumbent, the chances of her prevailing in a runoff would seem highly unlikely. |
The Rundown BlogLearn more about the candidates running in key elections across the United States. Archives
April 2024
Categories
All
|
|
BIPAC© 2022 BIPAC. All rights reserved
|