Gov. Chris Sununu: Files Super PAC as Prelude to Potential Candidacy: Previously indicating that he is interested in exploring a presidential bid, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) has formed a Super PAC entitled the “Live Free or Die PAC,” which will allow funds to be raised in order to test the political waters.
Gov. Sununu is not a fan of Donald Trump, yet ironically, he and other less known candidates who enter the race increase the chances that the former President will be able to build a plurality coalition large enough to win the Republican nomination a la what occurred in 2016. Nebraska: New Senator Ricketts Drawing Potential GOP Challenger: Before Cornhusker State Senator Pete Ricketts (R) was appointed to replace resigned Sen. Ben Sasse (R) on January 12th, former gubernatorial candidate Charles Herbster indicated he would consider launching a primary against the eventual appointed incumbent. Now, he appears to be doubling down on that comment, again saying he is seriously considering developing a 2024 Senate campaign.
Mr. Herbster lost the 2022 Republican primary to now-Gov. Jim Pillen largely with then-Gov. Ricketts’ substantial help. Former President Donald Trump supported Herbster in the primary, but the endorsement came before several women came forth to accuse the agribusinessman of sexual harassment. Though Trump did not rescind the endorsement, his support was not enough to overcome the Pillen-Ricketts team. CO-3: New Rep. Boebert Challenger Comes Forward: Veterinarian Debby Burnett (D), who filed to run against Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) in 2022 but was disqualified from the ballot, is again filing to run in 2024. Though Ms. Burnett will likely qualify for the Democratic primary in the coming election, she is likely to fall well behind 2022 nominee Adam Frisch who came within 546 votes of unseating Rep. Boebert. Mr. Frisch indicates that he is likely to run again and will almost certainly have the local Democratic Party’s support.
IN-5: Potential Candidates Begin to Stir: Since two-term central Indiana Rep. Victoria Spartz’s (R-Noblesville) retirement announcement for the end of the current term caught virtually everyone by surprise, potential candidates are now only beginning to stir. The first to indicate she is interested in making the open seat race is former congressional aide Megan Savage (R), a former chief of staff to retired 5th District Congresswoman Susan Brooks (R). Other potential candidates include state Sen. Scott Baldwin (R-Noblesville), former state Sen. John Ruckelshaus, and ex-state Treasurer Kelly Mitchell (R). A crowded Republican field is expected to emerge in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+22. West Virginia: Ag Commissioner to Stay Put: As more individuals begin to become candidates for the open West Virginia Governor’s race in 2024, one prospective contender who will remain in his current position is Agriculture Commissioner Kent Leonhardt (R) as his statement yesterday made clear.
In the GOP gubernatorial race are Secretary of State Mac Warner, state Delegate Moore Capito (R-Charleston), son of Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R), businessman Chris Miller, son of Rep. Carol Miller (R-Huntington), farmer Terri Bradshaw, and preschool owner Rashida Yost. No Democrats have yet announced. Gov. Jim Justice (R) is ineligible to seek a third term but may run for US Senate. New York: Ex-Rep. Zeldin Considering Gillibrand Challenge: Four-term Long Island Rep. Lee Zeldin (R), who gave up his congressional seat to challenge Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) in November and lost 53-47%, says he is considering launching a campaign against Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) next year. Mr. Zeldin said “it would be a pretty epic clash” between the two if he decided to make the run.
This would be a tough race for Mr. Zeldin, or any Republican, in a presidential year. New York will surely back the Democratic presidential nominee meaning it would be even more difficult to defeat a sitting incumbent Senator who will be enjoying what should be a favorable turnout model in one of the country’s strongest Democratic states. OH-13: Republican Eyeing Re-Match: Madison Gesiotto Gilbert (R), who lost to now freshman Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) in a tight 53-47% November contest, is reportedly mulling taking another shot at winning the seat in 2024. Should the Ohio map be re-drawn, which is a possibility before the 2024 election, this district could become more Republican. If not, then Rep. Sykes will be considered a clear favorite for re-election.
The newly created OH-13 contains the city of Akron and its surrounding areas. The FiveThirtyEight data organization actually rates the seat R+2, but Dave’s Redistricting App sees the partisan lean at 50.7 – 47.0 favoring the Democrats, a split that will only grow once the ’22 race is added to the calculation formula. President Biden carried the district with a result very close to the Dave’s App overall partisan lean, 50.7 – 47.9%. Chicago: Two New Mayoral Polling Leaders: As we approach the February 28th non-partisan mayoral election in Chicago, an independent IZQ Strategies survey (1/27-2/2; 1,040 likely Chicago primary voters; SMS text) sees former Chicago Schools CEO Paul Vallas taking the lead within the crowded candidate field with 25% support.
Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson, who US Reps. Jonathan Jackson (D-Chicago) and Delia Ramirez (D-Chicago) support, pulls into second place with 15%, while Mayor Lori Lightfoot and US Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D-Chicago) drop into a tie for third position with 12% preference apiece. From the field of nine candidates, the top two will advance to an April 4th runoff election, assuming no one receives majority support on the 28th. Mr. Vallas, though a Democrat, is clearly the most conservative candidate in the field. This can help him traverse a crowded primary, but will make it more difficult to win a runoff election. It is also the first poll where we see neither Mayor Lightfoot nor Rep. Garcia finishing in the top two. It is clear that this mayoral race is anybody’s game at this point as we enter the final three weeks of the campaign. Philadelphia: Michelle Obama Calls Out Mayoral Candidate: The crowded primary to replace term-limited Philadelphia Mayor Jim Kenney (D) has created a national controversy. One of the ten Democrats vying for the position, businessman Jeff Brown, has been running a commercial with film of former First Lady Michelle Obama praising him at an event. According to an official response statement from Ms. Obama, the film is doctored and she was including both Mr. Brown and another individual as praiseworthy for their business and community efforts at a gathering that occurred several years ago. Ms. Obama further stated that she does not take sides in Democratic primaries, and is supporting no candidate in the Philadelphia race. The field of ten Democrats vying to win the May 16th primary in order to advance to the November general election features state Representative Amen Brown (D-Philadelphia), and former City Councilmembers Maria Quinones-Sanchez, Derek Green, Cherelle Parker, and Helen Gym, ex-Philadelphia Controller Rebecca Rhynhart, former Municipal Court Judge Jimmy DeLeon, frequent candidate Warren Bloom, and Jeff Brown. Michigan: GOP Senate Action Beginning: When Wolverine State Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow announced on January 5th that she would not seek re-election in 2024, a spate of speculative activity occurred particularly among Democrats as to who may run to succeed the veteran incumbent. Despite the seemingly heightened interest level, no major candidate has yet to announce. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) was thought to be on the verge of declaring her Senate candidacy and is still expected to at some point, but she has yet to come forward.
The Republicans were quiet immediately after the Stabenow announcement, which caught many by surprise, but now increased chatter is evident. Last week, former US Rep. Mike Rogers said he is considering running, and this week speculation is surrounding potential Senate bids from Congressman Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) and former US Rep. Peter Meijer. The latter man was denied renomination in the 2022 election cycle. The Michigan race promises to be highly competitive, but Democrats will be favored to win a close open seat contest. CA-13: Ex-Candidate Declares Against Rep. Duarte: Fresno area financial advisor and ex-Democratic congressional candidate Phil Arballo (D) says he will return in 2024 to hopefully challenge freshman Rep. John Duarte (R-Modesto) in the general election. The Congressman recorded the 2022 election’s second-closest victory margin nationally, a 565-vote win over then-state Assemblyman Adam Gray (D).
Mr. Arballo first came on the political scene in 2020 when he challenged then-Rep. Devin Nunes (R). He raised over $5 million for that campaign but secured only 46% of the general election vote. He entered the 2022 race in new District 13 but failed to become a November election finalist, placing third in the jungle primary with a 17.4% preference total after raising $1.6 million. The 13th District race will be a major national Democratic conversion target, so we can expect a large jungle primary field to form. At this point, there is little indication that Mr. Gray will return for a re-match. NY-19: Field Forming to Challenge Rep. Molinaro: We’ve already seen brisk political activity in several New York Upstate districts. Over the weekend, Dan Butterman (D), an insurance executive who has three times failed to win a state Assembly seat, says he will join the growing field to challenge freshman Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-Red Hook). Also in the race are Democratic activist Joe Cerullo and Independent marketing executive Hal Stewart. Stronger Democratic candidates are expected to emerge. Mr. Molinaro won the 19th District general election with a 51-49% victory over attorney Josh Riley (D), after the new Congressman lost the special election conducted earlier in the year to replace former US Rep. Antonio Delgado (D) who resigned from the House to become Lt. Governor. In two other Upstate districts, former Congressman Mondaire Jones (D) is contemplating a comeback effort against freshman Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) in the Westchester County anchored 17th CD, and a pair of Democrats have announced their candidacies against freshman Rep. Brandon Williams (R-Syracuse) in the 22nd District. North Carolina: Former Congressman Considering Gov Race: Former Tar Heel State three-term Congressman Mark Walker (R-Greensboro), who was redistricted out of his 6th District seat and then subsequently lost a GOP US Senate primary, indicated he is now interested in running for Governor next year.
Mr. Walker fared poorly in the 2022 US Senate contest, however, placing a distant third to now-Sen. Ted Budd in the Republican primary. In that race he secured only 9.2% of the GOP vote. In the Governor’s race, Mr. Walker would face Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) and likely several others. Incumbent Governor Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. It is probable that a new congressional redistricting map will be drawn to replace the current interim court map before the 2024 election. As has been the Republican map drawers’ past practice, a new plan would reconfigure one of the seats in the Greensboro area to favor a Republican candidate. Therefore, again running for the House could be another option for Mr. Walker. |
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