Mississippi: Two Democrats Disqualified: A pair of minor Democratic gubernatorial contenders have been disqualified from the ballot for failing to meet the state’s candidate requirements. This means that Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley, cousin to the late music legend Elvis Presley, will be unopposed for the party nomination.
With Gov. Tate Reeves facing only minor opposition in the August 8th Republican primary, we will now assuredly see both the Governor and Mr. Presley advancing into the general election. Therefore, a defined Mississippi gubernatorial campaign commences and will continue for the better part of this year. The general election date is November 7th. Quinnipiac: Supports Crowded Primary Analysis: Quinnipiac University released their latest national presidential poll (2/9-14; 1,580 US adults; 1,429 self-identified registered voters; 592 self-identified Republican or Republican leaning voters; live interview) and the results confirm some relatively common analyses. The numbers appear to support the idea that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis could deny Donald Trump renomination if he can make the race a choice directly between he and the former President. Though a national poll is useful for detecting a popularity trend, a party nomination is won in the states. Looking at publicly released surveys since mid-November to the present, we see 29 state polls coming from 16 voting entities, including the pre-Super Tuesday locations of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. From those 29 polls, a total of 17 tested Trump and DeSantis in a head-to-head contest. Already, DeSantis was polling ahead of the former President in 14 of those surveys. When the field was crowded, it was Mr. Trump who fares better. In the dozen multi-candidate studies, the former President led Gov. DeSantis in eight. Arizona: Rep. Gallego Leads in New Polling, But Numbers are Close: OH Predictive Insights, a frequent Arizona pollster, produced new numbers from their January 31 – February 9 survey of 1,000 registered voters through an online opt-in panel. Under various configurations, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) leads the various candidate fields, but he scores only between 31-34% in the three-way hypothetical contests.
Along with Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I), Gallego was tested individually with Republicans Doug Ducey, the former Governor, 2022 Senate nominee Blake Masters, 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake, and 2022 gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson. Sen. Sinema slightly improves her standing, topping out at 22%, while the highest Republican score is 27% from Mr. Ducey. The latter man, however, has repeatedly said he will not be a Senate candidate in 2024. The online poll conducted over a long sampling period is often considered less reliable than other methodologies. The bottom line from this and other early AZ Senate polls, is that any one of the three, Mr. Gallego, Sen. Sinema, or an eventual Republican nominee can win a tight three-way contest. California: Rep. Lee Files Senate Committee with FEC: As expected now that Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) has announced that she will not seek re-election in 2024, Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) immediately filed a Senate committee with the Federal Election Commission. Ms. Lee had been sending clear signals that she plans to enter the open Senate race, but would do so only after Sen. Feinstein made her plans known. The act of filing a FEC committee does not necessarily mean a Senate candidacy is forthcoming, but it is a clear indication this is where Rep. Lee is headed. Indiana: NRSC Sending Banks Signals: Though former Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) and other GOP leaders are attempting to recruit a candidate to oppose conservative Rep. Jim Banks (R-Columbia City) for the open Indiana US Senate race, National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman Steve Daines (R-MT) appears to be headed toward the Congressman’s camp. Reports suggest the Daniels group may be close to backing former Rep. Trey Hollingsworth (R) for the Senate nomination, but with Banks having the rightward faction and what well could be the NRSC endorsement and resource support, the latter man will be very difficult to derail. Next week, Sen. Daines is hosting a fundraising event for Rep. Banks sending clear signals that the national party is going to back the northern Indiana House member. Pennsylvania: Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. Recovering from Cancer Surgery: Sen. Bob Casey, Jr’s. (D) office staff released a statement indicating that the Senator’s surgery for prostate cancer is complete and doctors at least preliminarily believe he will need no further treatment. Sen. Casey previously said he hopes to run for re-election to a third term so long as his health responds. With early indications being positive, it is likely the Senator will be back on the ballot in 2024.
West Virginia: New Poll Finds Gov. Jim Justice Topping Sen. Manchin: Mountain State Gov. Jim Justice (R) has been leaning toward challenging Sen. Joe Manchin (D) next year, and a new poll will likely add fuel to his fire. The Tarrance Group, polling for the Senate Leadership Fund (2/5-7; 609 WV registered voters, including an oversample of 100 likely Republican primary voters; live interview), projects Gov. Justice leading Sen. Manchin by a substantial ten-point margin, 52-42%. Testing the other known potential Republican candidates, Attorney General Patrick Morrisey and US Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town), the results prove very different. Against each of these Republicans, Sen. Manchin holds a lead. If AG Morrisey were to return for a re-match from their 2018 campaign (Manchin won 50-46%), the Senator would be staked to a reversed 52-42% advantage. He would fare better opposite Rep. Mooney. In this pairing, Sen. Manchin’s margin would be an even stronger 55-40%. At this point, Rep. Mooney has announced his Senate candidacy. Mr. Morrisey says he is looking at the Senate race, along with Governor, Rep. Mooney’s open congressional seat, or running for re-election. Gov. Justice is reportedly nearing a decision. Louisiana: Transportation Sec Shawn Wilson Resigning; Likely Gov Candidate: Louisiana Department of Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson (D) announced that he is resigning his position largely with the intent of running for Governor later this year. It appears he is doing so with Gov. John Bel Edwards’ (D) tacit endorsement. Of Mr. Wilson, Gov. Edwards said, “we would be very well served to have Shawn Wilson as our next Governor.” Mr. Edwards is ineligible to seek a third term. At this point, Mr. Wilson would be the lone Democrat in the field.
Among Republicans, Attorney General and former Congressman Jeff Landry and state Treasurer John Schroder are announced candidates. US Rep. Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge) is another potential contender. The field won’t become finalized until August 10th. The jungle primary is scheduled for October 14th with a runoff on November 18th if no candidate receives majority support in the first vote. Missouri: New Poll Favors Former Senator’s Son: The Remington Research Group released a survey of what will be an open 2024 Show Me State Governor’s race. The study (2/8-9; 820 MO presumed likely Republican primary voters; interactive voice response system) projects Attorney General Jay Ashcroft, son of former US Senator and Attorney General John Ashcroft, leading the open GOP primary to replace term-limited Gov. Mike Parson (R) in the 2024 election. The ballot test finds Mr. Ashcroft drawing 28% support, more than tripling that of Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe who posts 9% preference. The eventual Republican gubernatorial nominee will begin the general election campaign as a clear favorite. Nikki Haley: Announces for President: Former South Carolina Governor and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (R), as promised, officially announced her presidential campaign joining former President Trump in the GOP field. Analysts pointed out that her announcement portfolio relies heavily on her background with little in the way of future vision. This approach largely proved a mistake for Republicans nationally in 2022, and the principal reason that many believed GOP candidates underperformed in the last election.
For his part, former President Trump seems to welcome her into the race, as he probably will with others. He understands a crowded field will likely award him the nomination with base support nationally of approximately 35%, just how the 2016 Republican campaign unfolded. California: Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) Announces Retirement Plans: As expected, veteran Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), now the longest serving Democrat in the chamber since former Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT) has retired, announced yesterday that she will not seek re-election to a sixth full term in office. The Senator originally claimed the seat in a 1992 special election and won her first six-year term two years later.
Sen. Feinstein, 89 years of age, was first elected to the San Francisco Board of Supervisors in 1969 and became Board President in 1978. Later that year, she succeeded then Mayor George Moscone (D) after his tragic assassination. Mayor Feinstein would then win election to the position and served a total of nine years. She lost the 1988 Governor’s race to then-Sen. Pete Wilson (R) but rebounded to win the Senate seat four years later. Two Democratic House members, Reps. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) and Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) had both announced their Senate candidacies weeks before the incumbent made public her own re-election decision. CO-3: Re-Match on Tap: Aspen Democratic former City Councilman Adam Frisch, who held Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) to the closest victory in any House race (546 vote margin), announced yesterday that he will return to seek a re-match with the two-term Congresswoman.
Mr. Frisch, however, already has Democratic primary opposition. Late last week, veterinarian and former congressional candidate Debby Burnett announced her candidacy, but she faces a difficult road to deny Mr. Frisch renomination after his strong general election performance. It is likely we will see another close general election here in 2024. Mississippi: New Poll Finds Gov. Reeves Trailing: A late January 2023 Mississippi gubernatorial poll, for the first time, shows Gov. Tate Reeves falling behind Democratic Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley in a head-to-head ballot test question. Tulchin Research, polling for the Southern Poverty Law Center and the Southern Majority IE PAC (1/21-25; 500 projected MS likely voters; live interview, email & text) projects Mr. Presley, a cousin to the late singing legend Elvis Presley, pulling ahead of Gov. Reeves, 47-43%.
An earlier January poll, from Siena College (1/1-12; 821 MS registered voters), however, posted Gov. Reeves to a 43-39% edge. The closeness of the two early polls project that we will likely see a hard-fought gubernatorial campaign conducted in the Magnolia State later this year. New Hampshire: Two Interesting Visitors: A pair of individuals are soon making trips to New Hampshire with obvious presidential intentions. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (D), son of the late US Senator and Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy and anti-vax proponent, is scheduling public appearances. Should he enter the New Hampshire Democratic primary, and President Biden not because the state won’t agree to the new Democratic National Committee nomination schedule, we could see some interesting ramifications develop.
Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who runs an investment firm specializing in the healthcare and technology sectors, is a best-selling author, and made national news opposing the corporate woke culture and Environmental, Social, & Governance (ESG) investing, is also making public appearances in the Granite State. Mr. Ramaswamy’s personal wealth is reportedly in the hundreds of millions range, so he will have the assets necessary to deliver a message in many primary states. It is presumed he would enter the Republican primaries. |
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