On Friday, the US Supreme Court agreed to hear the Republicans’ appeal of the Texas’ three-judge panel’s ruling declaring Districts 27 (Rep. Blake Farenthold, R-Corpus Christi) and 35 (Rep. Lloyd Doggett, D-Austin) unconstitutional for racial gerrymandering reasons. The high court stayed the lower court ruling, and also is considering the Republicans’ motion to stay on the recent North Carolina federal court ruling that the state’s congressional map is a political gerrymander. Whether the court will stay the North Carolina decision could possibly be decided later this week.
The Supreme Court has already heard the Democrats’ claim that the Wisconsin congressional lines are a political gerrymander, and a decision on that case could soon be forthcoming. The Republicans’ political gerrymandering claim against the Maryland map, specifically the state’s 6th District (Rep. John Delaney, D-Potomac), will also be on the high court’s agenda. It is unclear if any of the eventual rulings will cause the affected states to re-draw their congressional and/or state legislative maps before the 2018 election. --Jim Ellis As expected, Rep. Martha McSally (R-Tucson) made several stops throughout Arizona on Friday, and announced her candidacy for the state’s open Senate seat. Ms. McSally will now challenge former Maricopa County Joe Arpaio and ex-state Sen. Kelli Ward in the August 28th Republican primary. The winner will likely face Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Phoenix) in the general election. Ms. Sinema is fast becoming the consensus Democratic candidate. Polling shows McSally holding a slight lead over Arpaio and Ward as this primary campaign begins. Preliminary general election surveys also show a tight race with Rep. Sinema. Sen. Jeff Flake (R) is retiring after one term.
--Jim Ellis Last week, Remington Research, as we reported, released a survey giving Attorney General Josh Hawley (R) a 49-45% lead over Sen. Claire McCaskill (D), the second time this polling firm reported such a finding. Public Policy Polling, surveying for the liberal Majority Institute (1/8-9; 965 MO registered voters), puts McCaskill back in the lead, however, but with the slightest of margins, 45-44%. The sampling universe appears to contain a Democratic skew, however. In a state that has lurched to the right since the turn of the century, this sample actually gave the Democrats a 37-34% plurality. Together, the two polls suggest that the Senate race is clearly within the margin of polling error and should be considered a toss-up, even at this early stage of the election cycle.
--Jim Ellis For months, at-large Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-Bismarck) has been saying that he’s considering challenging Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) next year. Yesterday, he made his long awaited for announcement, and decided to seek a fourth term in the House. Mr. Cramer’s decision leaves only state Sen. Tom Campbell (R-Grafton) as a viable GOP candidate against Sen. Heitkamp. The decision reverses the latest trend that we’ve witnessed of Representatives deciding to leave the House and either retire or pursue a different office.
--Jim Ellis With Rep. Ed Royce (R-Yorba Linda/Fullerton) announcing his retirement, it was predicted that several Republicans would enter the race to succeed him. Democrats already had six candidates competing before the Congressman decided not to seek re-election. In addition to former state Assemblywoman Young Kim, who Rep. Royce has already endorsed, ex-state Senate Minority Leader Bob Huff (R-Diamond Bar), Orange County Supervisor and former Fullerton Mayor Shawn Nelson, and La Mirada City Councilman Andrew Sarega have formed candidate committees to compete in the June 5th jungle primary.
--Jim Ellis As noted above, Rep. Jim Renacci (R-Wadsworth) left the Governor’s race to become a Senate candidate, but he was not the only gubernatorial candidate to drop out of the race. Today, Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley has scheduled an announcement conference with opponent Richard Cordray. Ms. Whaley will reportedly announce that she is leaving the race, and will endorse Mr. Cordray for the nomination. Earlier in the week, former US Rep. Betty Sutton decided to form a unity team with Cordray, and she will now run for Lt. Governor as part of a new Democratic ticket.
The developments leave both parties with unity slates. For the Republicans, Attorney General and former US Senator Mike DeWine and Secretary of State Jon Husted are a political pair. With Renacci out, the remaining candidate is Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor. On the Democratic side, the Cordray-Sutton ticket faces former US Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-Cleveland), former state Supreme Court Justice Bob O’Neill, and ex-state Rep. Connie Pillich (D-Cincinnati). Gov. John Kasich (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. The Ohio Governorship will be an immense factor in the coming 2021 national redistricting battle. --Jim Ellis Rep. Jim Renacci (R-Wadsworth), as news reports predicted, made official his decision that he is leaving the gubernatorial race to instead challenge incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). Since Brown has been planning for a tough re-election fight, he has already amassed over $9.6 million for his campaign fund. Because Rep. Renacci is personally wealthy, he will be able to compete financially with the two-term Senator. Investor Michael Gibbons is also in the Republican primary. It is possible that author J.D. Vance or Youngstown University President and former Ohio State University football coach Jim Tressel could join the race, as well.
--Jim Ellis The Voter Opinions research firm conducted a gubernatorial poll for the Florida Chamber of Commerce (1/2-5; 600 FL likely and newly registered voters; 235 Democratic primary voters; 259 Republican primary voters) and found Agriculture Commissioner and former US Congressman Adam Putnam (R-Lakeland) and ex-US Rep. Gwen Graham (D-Tallahassee) leading their respective primaries, but with margins that can certainly be overcome. The sample sizes for both primary contests are too small to feature a strong reliability factor, but the results are interesting, nonetheless. The most important conclusion to draw from the polls is that the races in both parties are virtually wide open.
For the Republicans, Mr. Putnam has a 23-18% lead over newly announced US Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-Palm Coast/Daytona Beach). On the Democratic side, Ms. Graham reaches 14% support, followed by Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine at 7%, while Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum pulls 6%, and businessman Chris King records 1% preference. --Jim Ellis Gonzales Research & Media Services, a Maryland-based survey research firm, yesterday released the results of their year-end Democratic gubernatorial primary poll (12/27-1/5; 501 MD likely Democratic primary voters) and found Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker jumping out to an early advantage. According to the Gonzales results, Mr. Baker would capture 24% support, followed by Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz and ex-NAACP national president Ben Jealous with 14% apiece, while state Sen. Rich Madaleno (D-Montgomery County) tallies five percent. Four more minor candidates all recorded support factors of less than two percent.
The Maryland candidate filing deadline will close on February 27th, but the Democratic field appears set. The party primaries are scheduled for June 26th. The eventual Democratic nominee will face incumbent Gov. Larry Hogan (R) in the fall election. --Jim Ellis Based upon the news that former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio (R) and Rep. Martha McSally (R-Tucson) are entering the open US Senate race, an OH Predictive Insights flash interactive voice response poll for Arizona ABC affiliate Channel 15 was quickly conducted. The survey (1/9; 504 AZ likely Republican primary voters) finds Rep. McSally moving into first place with 31% followed closely by Sheriff Arpaio who captures 29%. Former state Sen. Kelli Ward drops to 25% support. Interestingly, the field shifts when outside endorsements are added. If President Trump were to endorse Arpaio, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to publicly back McSally, and former White House aide and ex-Breitbart News exec Steve Bannon continue to align himself with Ward, the field would break 35-31-13% for Arpaio, McSally, and Ward in that order.
--Jim Ellis |
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