Last year, rumors persisted that best selling author J.D. Vance (R) was going to enter the Republican Senate primary. With state Treasurer Josh Mandel (R) and investment banker Michael Gibbons (R) already in the race, Mr. Vance decided not to become a candidate. When Mr. Mandel changed his plans due to his wife’s recently discovered health issue, the Vance drumbeat again began to roll. Now, with Rep. Jim Renacci (R-Wadsworth) hopping into the Senate race from the Governor’s campaign, Mr. Vance has again come to the conclusion to bypass a run for the Senate. The winner of the now-presumed primary between Rep. Renacci and Mr. Gibbons faces two-term Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in the general election.
--Jim Ellis Despite already raising more than $500,000 as a challenger opposing three-term western Illinois Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Moline), businessman Mark Kleine (R) has decided to end his congressional campaign. He made comments suggesting that he could not raise the type of money it would take to win the race, even though he began in strong fashion. At best, the race would have been a long shot.
Still, Mr. Kleine was demonstrating some strength as a candidate, and now allows no chance of recruiting a strong replacement since the filing deadline has already passed. Illinois has the second-earliest primary in the country (March 20). For her part, Rep. Bustos had already raised well over $1.5 million in this currently election cycle, and held over $2.3 million in her campaign account at the end of September. --Jim Ellis On the heels of former Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) firmly deciding not to run against appointed Sen. Tina Smith (D), Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Delano/Minneapolis suburbs) has quickly followed suit. Yesterday, Mr. Emmer announced that he will seek re-election to a third term from his 6th District US House seat. State Sen. Karin Housley (R-Stillwater/St. Croix River Valley) remains the only announced Republican candidate. Former US Representative and presidential candidate Michele Bachmann, the individual Mr. Emmer succeeded in the House, is also considering the race.
--Jim Ellis Now that Rep. Pat Tiberi (R-Galena/Franklin County) has officially left the House and the replacement primary election is scheduled concurrently with the state’s regular primary on May 8th, more individuals are making political moves. Yesterday, Liberty Township Trustee Melanie Leneghan became the sixth Republican to declare her candidacy, while Democratic former state Rep. Jay Goyal said he will not run despite being encouraged to do so by many Democratic Party leadership figures.
So far, six Republicans and seven Democrats have entered the special election campaign. The candidate filing deadline is February 7th. The leading Republicans are state Sens. Kevin Bacon (R-Columbus) and Troy Balderson (R-Zanesville), along with Delaware County prosecutor Carol O’Brien. For the Dems, former Franklin County Sheriff Zach Scott and and ex-Ashley Mayor Doug Wilson appear to top the field. The special general is August 7th. Republicans are favored to hold the seat. --Jim Ellis Liberal activist Ned Lamont, who upset Sen. Joe Lieberman (D) in the 2006 Democratic primary but fell to him in the general when the Senator attained ballot access as an Independent, announced that he will become the eighth Democrat to compete in this year’s open Governor’s race.
Mr. Lamont lost the 2010 gubernatorial primary to Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy, the man who would go onto win the general election, garnering only 42% of the vote. The perennial candidate, a former Greenwich Selectman, is from the Sanders-Warren wing of the Democratic Party, and actually stands a good chance of topping a crowded primary field where no other candidate has significant statewide name identification. Before the August 14th primary is held, Democrats will have a major party convention that will officially endorse a candidate, which usually goes a long way toward influencing the final primary vote. --Jim Ellis The first public polling for the open Volunteer State Republican Senate nomination (Triton Polling & Research; 12/12-18; 1,028 TN likely Republican primary voters) staked Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Brentwood) to a huge 58-11% advantage over former US Rep. Stephen Fincher (R-Crockett County). Yesterday, WPA Intelligence, polling for the Club for Growth, released the results of their latest survey (1/14-15; 502 TN likely Republican primary voters) and found Rep. Blackburn’s lead to be even greater: 66-13%. In fact, when tested against two-term retiring incumbent Sen. Bob Corker (R), the Congresswoman would deny him re-nomination in a hypothetical primary race, 63-25%. Her favorability image within this polling sample is a whopping 64:12% positive to negative.
--Jim Ellis Reports coming from Nevada indicate that Las Vegas City Councilman Stavros Anthony (R) is ending his campaign for the open 4th Congressional District seat (freshman Rep. Ruben Kihuen (D-Las Vegas)) because of heart problems. It is expected that former Rep. Cresent Hardy (R-Mesquite), despite him suffering a heart attack during his one term in the House, will soon enter the race. Rep. Kihuen unseated Mr. Hardy in 2016, but came under fire for sexual harassment and has decided not to seek re-election. The 4th CD is a marginal political seat, originally created in the 2011 reapportionment, which leans toward the Democrats but has also proven to vote Republican.
--Jim Ellis A new poll from the Arizona-based Data Orbital survey research firm (1/11-15; 500 AZ likely Republican primary voters) finds Rep. Martha McSally (R-Tucson) leading former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio and ex-state Sen. Kelli Ward for the open Republican Senate primary. According to these latest numbers, Rep. McSally holds a 31-22-19% lead over Mr. Arpaio and Ms. Ward, respectively. The analysis suggests that McSally’s strong base within her Tucson congressional district is largely responsible for her statewide advantage. The Arizona primary isn’t until August 28th, however, so this campaign has much time to change.
--Jim Ellis While former Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) never expressed outright interest in running in the new special election presumably against appointed Sen. Tina Smith (D), he never firmly closed the door on entering the race, either. Now, he has. Yesterday, in a Fox News interview, Mr. Pawlenty said he will not become a Senate candidate, and that there are many other ways to continue his public service career. The decision may increase the pressure on Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Delano/Minneapolis suburbs) to more seriously consider again running statewide. Before being elected to the House, Mr. Emmer was the 2010 Republican nominee for Governor, losing by less than 9,000 votes statewide. For now, state Sen. Karin Housley (R-Stillwater/St. Croix River Valley) is the only announced candidate. Former US Rep. and presidential candidate Michele Bachmann is also considering the race.
--Jim Ellis At this point, 16 Democrats have announced their candidacy for Governor, meaning a major nomination battle will be settled in the state’s August 14th primary. Public Policy Polling (1/8-10; 747 WI likely Democratic primary voters) went into the field to determine who are the leading contenders within this large pack of political candidates. The clear leader is Wisconsin Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers, who attracted 29% support, more than twice the amount of the individual placing second, state Sen. Kathleen Vinehout (D-Alma), who captured 11% just one point ahead of Madison Mayor Paul Soglin. None of the other seven tested candidates could break the five percent mark.
In another point of good news for Mr. Evers, when the sampling group was asked who they believed would win the party nomination irrespective of who they were supporting, 35% identified him versus only 10% for Mayor Soglin. The eventual nominee will face two-term Gov. Scott Walker (R), who briefly entered the 2016 presidential campaign but left the race well before 2015 came to an end. --Jim Ellis |
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